Thursday, August 19, 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


How Many Teachers Will $10 Billion in Additional Stimulus Rehire?

Posted: 19 Aug 2010 05:46 PM PDT

On August 11, President Obama signed a $26 billion jobs bill to aid state payrolls. $10 billion of was targeted for schools. Not counting bank bailouts, over $1 trillion in stimulus money has been authorized, most of it already spent wasted.

The Washington Post comments ...
All told, according to a recent paper by economists Alan S. Blinder of Princeton University and Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics, Congress has authorized more than $1 trillion in fiscal stimulus. Rescue efforts for the financial system, including the Troubled Assets Relief Program and actions by the Federal Reserve, are not included. The authors -- supporters of the stimulus -- estimate that the ultimate cost to taxpayers for all federal actions in response to the recession will be around $1.6 trillion.

Despite those expenditures, the economy continues to struggle. The prospect of layoffs or tax increases by state officials who are almost uniformly required to balance their budgets remains a major worry. The package approved Tuesday represents less than a quarter of the $116 billion shortfall that states face over the next two years, according to the National Governors Association. "This isn't plugging the hole. This is helping to transition," said David Quam, NGA director of federal relations.

Schools have been particularly hard hit. With the start of school just a few weeks away, class sizes have been on the rise across the country, school bus routes have been cut and a plethora of programs, including summer school, arts, physical education, and health and counseling services, have been slashed. Some school systems even trimmed the length of the school year to make ends meet. As of this month, it remained unclear exactly how many workers had been let go.
How Will $10 Billion Be Spent?

The goal of this recent stimulus effort was to save the jobs of 160,000 furloughed teachers and other employees. Inquiring minds are wondering how many teachers will actually be recalled.

The New York Times addresses the issue in Given Money for Rehiring, Schools Wait and See.
As schools handed out pink slips to teachers this spring, states made a beeline to Washington to plead for money for their ravaged education budgets. But now that the federal government has come through with $10 billion, some of the nation's biggest school districts are balking at using their share of the money to hire teachers right away.

With the economic outlook weakening, they argue that big deficits are looming for the next academic year and that they need to preserve the funds to prevent future layoffs. Los Angeles, for example, is projecting a $280 million budget shortfall next year that could threaten more jobs.

"You've got this herculean task to deal with next year's deficit," said Lydia L. Ramos, a spokeswoman for the Los Angeles Unified School District, the nation's second-largest after New York City. "So if there's a way that you can lessen the blow for next year," she said, "we feel like it would be responsible to try to do that."

The district laid off 682 teachers and counselors and about 2,000 support workers this spring and was not sure it would be able to hire any of them back with the stimulus money. The district says it could be forced to cut 4,500 more people next year.

In New York City, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg committed to no teacher layoffs this year in exchange for not offering raises. A spokeswoman said the city's budget had already taken the federal aid into account.

In New Jersey, where about 3,000 teachers were let go in May, Gov. Christopher J. Christie's administration worries that the federal aid will only forestall difficult decisions later, and it is unclear how much will be spent immediately.

In the nation's fifth-largest district in Clark County in Las Vegas, administrators are eager to hire some teachers, though they wonder what they will do when the federal money runs out.

"We're a little wary about hiring people if we only have money for a year, but we know that's the intent of this bill," said Jeff Weiler, chief financial officer for Clark County schools.

"We can't stand by and do nothing while pink slips are given to the men and women who educate our children or keep our communities safe," President Obama said last week. "That doesn't make sense."
Piss Poor Economics

The president is mistaken. What doesn't make economic sense is throwing money at unions when unions are the problem. The very best thing we can do for our nation is to get rid of collective bargaining, unions and their bloated salaries and pensions.

Throwing money at problems may be good campaign tactics but it is piss poor economics.

Agony for Naught?

By not rehiring furloughed workers, school districts are making a wise decision. Why go through all this agony of cutting expenses just to do it again next year, fighting the same battle over again?

In the case of New York City, the money was budgeted and spent in advance.

Moreover, summer recess is nearly over, and plans about class sizes, student teacher ratios, number of classes, were already set.

With concerns about next year looming large and the school year about to start, does it make sense to disrupt revised schedules?

Clearly the answer is no. Thus, the best thing to do with that $10 billion this year is nothing. Gratefully, it seems for the most part nothing will be done.

Who is Blame for Lost Jobs?

Not a single teacher, police, or firefighter job had to be lost in this recession.

All the unions had to do to save jobs was renegotiate salaries and benefits. Since they refused, the unions are 100% responsible for every public sector job lost.

So, if furloughed teachers, fire fighters, police officers, and transit workers want to bitch, they should take their grievances to "union hall" and complain the union threw them under the bus because that is exactly what happened.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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58 out of 58 Economists Overoptimistic on Philly Fed Manufacturing Estimate; Median Forecast +7 Actual Result -7.7, a "Veritable Disaster"

Posted: 19 Aug 2010 11:19 AM PDT

They may call economics the "dismal science" but it would be hard pressed to find a more optimistic lot than economists, anywhere in private industry.

Fresh on the heels of a perfect 42 of 42 overoptimistic predictions on weekly claims (Please see Weekly Unemployment Claims Hit 500,000, Exceed Every Economist's Estimate; No Lasting Improvement for 9 Months), a perfect 58 out of 58 Economists were overoptimistic regarding the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey.

Unexpected Shrinkage

Bloomberg reports Factories in Philadelphia Area Unexpectedly Shrink
Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly shrank in August for the first time in a year as orders and sales slumped, a sign factories are being hurt by the U.S. economic slowdown.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index fell to minus 7.7 this month, the lowest reading since July 2009, from 5.1 in July. Readings less than zero signal contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

Economists forecast the measure would rise to 7, according to the median of 58 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from minus 6 to 10.

The Philadelphia Fed's survey was in sync with a report this week from the Fed Bank of New York. The bank's so-called Empire State Index increased less than forecast, as orders and sales cooled.
Forecast for "More Modesty"!
"We expect the recovery that we've seen in our business to continue, but in a more moderate pace than we've experienced in the first half," Chief Financial Officer Nicholas Fanandakis said on a conference call with analysts.

Fed policy makers last week voted to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low and made their first attempt to shore up a recovery they said was likely to be "more modest" than earlier anticipated.
Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey

With that undoubtedly overoptimistic "modest recovery" out of the way, please consider actual results from the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey.
Results from the Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity weakened in August, after two months of slowing activity. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered negative readings this month.

Firms also reported declines in employment and work hours. The survey's broad indicators of future activity continue to suggest that the region's manufacturing executives expect growth in business over the next six months, but optimism has waned notably in recent months.

Indicators Suggest Weakness

The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of
current activity, decreased from a reading of 5.1 in July to ‐7.7 in August. The index turned negative, marking a period of declining monthly activity for the first time since July 2009.

Indexes for new orders and shipments also suggest a slowing this month; the new orders index fell slightly, to ‐7.1, while the shipments index turned negative, declining to ‐4.5. Indicating weakness, indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders remained negative this month.

The percentage of firms reporting a decline in employment (23 percent) was higher than the percentage (20 percent) reporting an increase. More concerning was the significant drop in the average employee workweek index from 1.7 in July to ‐17.1 in August.

Firms Report Lower Prices for Products

On balance, firms reported declines in prices for their own manufactured goods: More firms reported decreases in prices (19 percent) than reported increases (6 percent).
Future Expectations Gap Widens



Veritable Disaster

This was not a "weak report" this was a "veritable disaster".



click on table for sharper image

Note that every component of the index except for prices paid is in contraction. This represents a massive squeeze on profits.

Also note the huge, widening spread between current conditions and future expectations. One of them is wrong and I suggest manufacturers are taking their clues from clueless economists who continually think things are going to get better.

Flashback July 15, 2010

Here are some comments I made a month ago in Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Barely Positive, Future Expectations Overly Optimistic
Where To From Here?

If manufactures are ramping up production, even modestly, in expectations for a better second half, they are going to regret it.
Data suggests durable goods sales are about to collapse.

I made the case for a significant manufacturing slowdown in Expect Second-Half Housing and Durable Goods Crash. Please take a look.

Manufacturers may be more optimistic six months from now, but consumer attitudes suggest something dramatically different. Ramping up production is the wrong thing to do.
Amazingly, optimism still remains supreme in nearly every economic report. There is virtually no reason for it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Weekly Unemployment Claims Hit 500,000, Exceed Every Economist's Estimate; No Lasting Improvement for 9 Months

Posted: 19 Aug 2010 09:33 AM PDT

Once again the pile of overoptimistic economist estimates continues to mount. Today, weekly unemployment claims hit 500,000 exceeding every forecast. This is (at minimum) the 4th time since March every economist was overly optimistic regarding unemployment claims. Nicely done guys.

Bloomberg reports Jobless Claims in U.S. Rose to Highest Since November
Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. unexpectedly increased last week to the highest level since November, showing companies are stepping up the pace of firings as the economy slows.

Initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 500,000 in the week ended Aug. 14, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Claims exceeded all estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and compared with the median forecast of 478,000.

Estimates of the 42 economists surveyed by Bloomberg ranged from 460,000 to 495,000. The government revised the prior week's claims figure to 488,000 from a previously reported 484,000. Initial filings last week were the highest since the week ended Nov. 14, 2009.

Claims have increased in four of the last five weeks.
Weekly Claims Report

Please consider the Unemployment Weekly Claims Report for August 19, 2010.
In the week ending Aug. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 500,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 488,000. The 4-week moving average was 482,500, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average of 474,500.
Unemployment Claims



The weekly claims numbers are volatile so it's best to focus on the trend in the 4-week moving average.

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims



The 4-week moving average is still near the peak results of the last two recessions. It's important to note those are raw numbers, not population adjusted. Nonetheless, the numbers do indicate broad, persistent weakness.

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims Since 2007



No Lasting Improvement for 9 Months

There has been no lasting improvement since November 14, 2009, over nine months ago.

To be consistent with an economy adding jobs coming out of a recession, the number of claims needs to fall to the 400,000 level.

At some point employers will be as lean as they can get (and still stay in business). Yet, that does not mean businesses are about to go on a big hiring boom. Indeed, unless consumer spending picks up, they won't.

Questions on the Weekly Claims vs. the Unemployment Rate

A question keeps popping up in emails: "How can we lose 400,000+ jobs a week and yet have the unemployment rate stay flat and the monthly jobs report show gains?"

The answer is the economy is very dynamic. People change jobs all the time. Note that from 1975 forward, the number of claims was generally above 300,000 a week, yet some months the economy added well over 250,000 jobs.

Also note that the monthly published unemployment rate is from a household survey, not a survey of payroll data from businesses. That is why the monthly "establishment survey" (a sampling of actual payroll data) is not always in alignment with changes in the unemployment rate. At economic turns the discrepancy can be wide.

With census effects nearly played out, It may be quite some time before we weekly claims drop to 400,000 or net hiring that exceeds +250,000.

Unemployment claims are clearly in reverse.

Want to know why some businesses aren't hiring? Please consider Creating Jobs Carries a Punishing Price

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Creating Jobs Carries a Punishing Price

Posted: 19 Aug 2010 08:42 AM PDT

Mr. Fleischer, president of Bogen Communications Inc. in Ramsey, N.J., explains "Why I'm Not Hiring"
With unemployment just under 10% and companies sitting on their cash, you would think that sooner or later job growth would take off. I think it's going to be later—much later. Here's why.

Meet Sally (not her real name). Sally is a terrific employee, and she happens to be the median person in terms of base pay among the 83 people at my little company in New Jersey, where we provide audio systems for use in educational, commercial and industrial settings. She's been with us for over 15 years. She's a high school graduate with some specialized training. She makes $59,000 a year—on paper. In reality, she makes only $44,000 a year because $15,000 is taken from her thanks to various deductions and taxes, all of which form the steep, sad slope between gross and net pay.

Employing Sally costs plenty too. My company has to write checks for $74,000 so Sally can receive her nominal $59,000 in base pay. Health insurance is a big, added cost: While Sally pays nearly $2,400 for coverage, my company pays the rest—$9,561 for employee/spouse medical and dental. We also provide company-paid life and other insurance premiums amounting to $153. Altogether, company-paid benefits add $9,714 to the cost of employing Sally.

Then the federal and state governments want a little something extra. They take $56 for federal unemployment coverage, $149 for disability insurance, $300 for workers' comp and $505 for state unemployment insurance. Finally, the feds make me pay $856 for Sally's Medicare and $3,661 for her Social Security.

When you add it all up, it costs $74,000 to put $44,000 in Sally's pocket and to give her $12,000 in benefits.

Every year, we negotiate a renewal to our health coverage. This year, our provider demanded a 28% increase in premiums—for a lesser plan. To offset tax increases and steepening rises in health-insurance premiums, my company needs sustainably higher profits and sales—something unlikely in this "summer of recovery."

A life in business is filled with uncertainties, but I can be quite sure that every time I hire someone my obligations to the government go up. From where I sit, the government's message is unmistakable: Creating a new job carries a punishing price.
Failed Policies

Obama, Geithner, Summers, and all the Keynesian clowns in the administration wonder why stimulus is failing.

All they need to do is pick up the phone and talk to small business owners. Actually, all they need to do is use a little common sense.

But No....

Instead of using common sense, they all think throwing money at problems will solve them. Then they need a way to pay for their helicopter cash drops, so they raise taxes.

Who do those tax hikes hit the most? Small and medium sized businesses.

Is it any wonder unemployment remains stubbornly high?

Addendum:

I received an interesting email from "David" a reader attempting to debunk Mr. Fleischer's reasons for not hiring. One of the items "David" mentioned is the idea that corporations are sitting on cash, something I have also debunked. "David" also challenged Mr. Fleischer's math on on healthcare.

Such arguments miss the entire point of the post.

It does not matter one iota if Mr. Fleischer is wrong about corporate sideline cash or anything else. What matters is Mr. Fleischer thinks he has sufficient reasons not to hire.

On that score I believe Mr. Fleischer is correct. Whether or not he can articulate reasons that others agree with is irrelevant. The pertinent fact is he is not hiring.

Moreover, numerous other small business owners think and act just like him. How do we know? Simple ...


For my thoughts on what to do about this mess, please consider Bleak Outlook for Small Businesses and Job Creation; Where Obama Went Wrong, and What to do About It.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Obama's Agenda to Destroy the Few Remaining Solvent States

Posted: 19 Aug 2010 01:22 AM PDT

In response to Oregon Wins Blue Ribbon for Unfounded Optimism; Everything "Weaker than Expected" several astute readers sent me a link to a Heritage Foundation article regarding public unions, collective bargaining, and their role in the state budget crisis.

Inquiring minds are reading Another Taxpayer Handout to Organized Labor
Get ready for Organized Labor's biggest congressional handout yet.

It would come via a piece of legislation called the "Public Safety Employer-Employee Cooperation Act." Attached, ridiculously enough, to a spending bill that provides war funding for the troops, it will soon hit the House floor for a vote.

From the name, you'd think that the act improved public safety. Wrong. In fact, it overrides state laws to boost union membership - at taxpayer expense.

The act would require all states to allow police, firefighters and emergency medical personnel to collectively bargain with taxpayers. If they don't create their own system, the federal government will impose one on them.

Unions once fought for higher wages. Now they fight for higher taxes.

New Jersey. Illinois. California. All across America public-sector unions campaign for tax increases. In Oregon they recently outspent businesses 3-to-2 to pass two ballot initiatives raising income and business taxes.

High taxes make perfect sense for government-employee unions - taxes fund the generous benefits of government workers. State employees in Oregon contribute nothing out-of-pocket toward their health care expenses. Many government employees can retire with a full pension at 55.

But these expensive benefits and the high taxes that fund them have wreaked havoc on state economies. The budget crises in California, Illinois and New Jersey didn't happen by chance. Well over half of government employees in those states hold union cards.

About a dozen states have decided not to play this game and do not collectively bargain with government workers. Virginia and North Carolina outlaw it altogether. This has proved a prudent decision. When was the last time you read about the Virginia budget crisis? States without government employee unions have weathered the recession much better than those with them.

Now the labor movement wants Congress to force these states to collectively bargain no matter what the cost to taxpayers. That's where the Public Safety Employer-Employee Cooperation Act comes in.

Hold on to your wallet; the Act stands an excellent chance of becoming law. It's an enormously valuable handout to the new government labor movement. Get ready for more unionized government workers demanding that you pay higher taxes.
This insidious bill passed in the US House of Representatives as part of an amendment to a supplemental appropriations bill. The Senate bill is S 1611.

Conservative Leaders Oppose Union Power Grab

The American Spectator writes Conservative Leaders Oppose Union Power Grab
RE: The misleadingly named "Public Safety Employer-Employee Cooperation Act" (originally H.R. 413; S. 1611, 3194). The bill would unconstitutionally abrogate all states' sovereignty, subject state and local public-safety workers to compulsory union "representation," eliminate local government control over the labor relations of their own workers, lead to a rise in labor strife, and further damage fragile state and local government economies by imposing unfunded federal mandates.

The bill claims to be designed to foster public-safety employer-employee cooperation. Nothing could be further from the truth. Actually, the bill's sole aim is to grant union officials monopoly collective-bargaining control over all state and local public-safety workers, including police, firefighters and emergency medical service personnel who refuse to join, or who quit, a union and want to deal with their employer on an individual basis. In short, this bill would deny public-safety workers freedom of contract.

Most important, this bill abrogates each state's existing and sovereign right to order the labor relations of its own and its local governments' employees in accordance with its elected officials' judgment as to that state's public interests. Today, each state is free to ban collective bargaining for its public-safety workers. The United States Supreme Court recognized that right in 1979 in Smith v. Arkansas State Highway Employees. A few states have done so.

to avoid having an unelected federal agency regulate and oversee their public-safety employees' labor relations, some 26 states would either have to enact entire new labor relations schemes that comply with federal mandates or amend their existing bargaining regimes for public-safety workers.

The bill clearly constitutes a constitutionally suspect federal abrogation of state sovereignty. As the U.S. Supreme Court said in Printz v. United States (1997), "the Federal Government may not compel the States to implement, by legislation or executive action, federal regulatory programs." That is effectively what this bill would do.
The Galling thing about all of this is it is perfectly obvious public unions have killed hundreds of cities and dozens of states.

President Obama does not give a rat's ass about that nor does anyone who supports this legislation. All the politicians want is to buy votes.

Harry Reid's push to nationalize all cop/firemen unions


Renew America discusses Harry Reid's push to nationalize all cop/firemen unions.
Senate Democrat Majority Leader Harry Reid is quietly trying to nationalize rules governing every police, fire and first responder union in the nation. Through the benignly named Public Safety Employer-Employee Cooperation Act (H.R.413) Reid wants all first responders represented by collective bargaining rules emanating from Washington D.C.

Reid is pushing this monstrosity as a major sop to his union supporters who will greatly benefit from nationalized rules for police and fire unions. Unfortunately, there is a large contingent of Republicans supporting this nanny state, big government take over.

Conservatives need to tell their Representatives to drop their co-sponsorship of this un-American attempt to nationalize our police and fire departments. After all, Big Labor is keen to force this bill through Congress this session. If Big Labor is hot on this one, how can any Republican in good conscience support this thing?
The article lists all of the clueless Republicans who co-sponsored the bill. Unfortunately, it is too late to contact your House representatives as they have already passed this monstrosity.

It is not too late to contact you senators.

The Agenda

Reihan Salam writing for the National Review Online comments on The Agenda.
For clear evidence that the Senate Republican caucus contains a not inconsiderable number of lunatics, check out Bill Gives Public Workers Clout by Kris Maher in the WSJ.
The bill, backed by at least six Republicans in the Senate, prohibits strikes and leaves to states' discretion whether to engage in collective bargaining in several areas, including health benefits and pensions.
My strong inclination would be to banish all six from the Republican caucus, but that could be too hasty a judgment. How can we understand the non-logic of those who are even considering voting for the scandalously bad bill? Sen. Mike Johanns of Nebraska dares to call the bill reasonable.

And then we learn the following:
The other Republican co-sponsors in the Senate are Scott Brown of Massachusetts, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.
I've long believed that the Republican Party should allow for more ideological diversity. But I'm not sure that principle should extend to the embrace of politicians who fail to understand the virtues of a federal system, in which states are given room to pursue a wide variety of different policy approaches. The extent of the power-grab defies belief.

Notice that Virginia is on the list. Remember that Washington Post editorial from a few weeks back, "A tale of two counties"?
Virginia law denies public employees collective bargaining rights; that's helped Fairfax resist budget-busting wage and benefit demands. As revenue dipped two years ago, Fairfax officials froze all salaries for county government and school employees with little ado. By contrast, Montgomery leaders were badly equipped to cope with recession. County Executive Isiah Leggett took office proposing fat budgets and negotiating openhanded union deals after he succeeded Mr. Duncan. Then, as economic storm clouds gathered, he shifted gears and cut spending — while still trying to appease the union.
Essentially, this legislation would deny other states the opportunity to escape the vise-like grip public employees have placed on taxpayers in Montgomery County and other jurisdictions around the country. Rest assured, the focus on police officers and firefighters is only an entering wedge. This legislation will also undermine Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels successful efforts to reduce spending and improve the cost-effectiveness of public services.
States Affected by the Bill



The above image from the above WSJ link.

What the Hell are they Thinking?

I am appalled that any Republican would vote for this piece of crap, yet I see Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH) was a sponsor of this bill along with the deceased Senator Edward Kennedy (D-MA).

What the hell is Greg thinking?

Also, what are Scott Brown of Massachusetts, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska thinking?

Actually not a one of them is thinking at all. It's as if they are all brain dead.

Have they not seen what governor Chris Christie is doing for New Jersey? Have they not seen how city and state budgets are crippled by public unions. I am so disgusted I can hardly type.

Stop the Madness - Contact Your Senators

Please contact your senators and tell them public unions have bankrupted many cities and states. Tell them you oppose Senate bill S-1611 the "Public Safety Employer-Employee Cooperation Act" because it will unconstitutionally take power from the states and limit their ability to respond to budget crises.

Tell them to stop usurping on states' rights and most importantly tell them public collective bargaining is the problem, not the solution.

We need to outlaw public union collective bargaining, not expand it!

Here is the Online Directory For The 111th Congress.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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