Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- How Many Teachers Will $10 Billion in Additional Stimulus Rehire?
- 58 out of 58 Economists Overoptimistic on Philly Fed Manufacturing Estimate; Median Forecast +7 Actual Result -7.7, a "Veritable Disaster"
- Weekly Unemployment Claims Hit 500,000, Exceed Every Economist's Estimate; No Lasting Improvement for 9 Months
- Creating Jobs Carries a Punishing Price
- Obama's Agenda to Destroy the Few Remaining Solvent States
How Many Teachers Will $10 Billion in Additional Stimulus Rehire? Posted: 19 Aug 2010 05:46 PM PDT On August 11, President Obama signed a $26 billion jobs bill to aid state payrolls. $10 billion of was targeted for schools. Not counting bank bailouts, over $1 trillion in stimulus money has been authorized, most of it already The Washington Post comments ... All told, according to a recent paper by economists Alan S. Blinder of Princeton University and Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics, Congress has authorized more than $1 trillion in fiscal stimulus. Rescue efforts for the financial system, including the Troubled Assets Relief Program and actions by the Federal Reserve, are not included. The authors -- supporters of the stimulus -- estimate that the ultimate cost to taxpayers for all federal actions in response to the recession will be around $1.6 trillion.How Will $10 Billion Be Spent? The goal of this recent stimulus effort was to save the jobs of 160,000 furloughed teachers and other employees. Inquiring minds are wondering how many teachers will actually be recalled. The New York Times addresses the issue in Given Money for Rehiring, Schools Wait and See. As schools handed out pink slips to teachers this spring, states made a beeline to Washington to plead for money for their ravaged education budgets. But now that the federal government has come through with $10 billion, some of the nation's biggest school districts are balking at using their share of the money to hire teachers right away.Piss Poor Economics The president is mistaken. What doesn't make economic sense is throwing money at unions when unions are the problem. The very best thing we can do for our nation is to get rid of collective bargaining, unions and their bloated salaries and pensions. Throwing money at problems may be good campaign tactics but it is piss poor economics. Agony for Naught? By not rehiring furloughed workers, school districts are making a wise decision. Why go through all this agony of cutting expenses just to do it again next year, fighting the same battle over again? In the case of New York City, the money was budgeted and spent in advance. Moreover, summer recess is nearly over, and plans about class sizes, student teacher ratios, number of classes, were already set. With concerns about next year looming large and the school year about to start, does it make sense to disrupt revised schedules? Clearly the answer is no. Thus, the best thing to do with that $10 billion this year is nothing. Gratefully, it seems for the most part nothing will be done. Who is Blame for Lost Jobs? Not a single teacher, police, or firefighter job had to be lost in this recession. All the unions had to do to save jobs was renegotiate salaries and benefits. Since they refused, the unions are 100% responsible for every public sector job lost. So, if furloughed teachers, fire fighters, police officers, and transit workers want to bitch, they should take their grievances to "union hall" and complain the union threw them under the bus because that is exactly what happened. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 19 Aug 2010 11:19 AM PDT They may call economics the "dismal science" but it would be hard pressed to find a more optimistic lot than economists, anywhere in private industry. Fresh on the heels of a perfect 42 of 42 overoptimistic predictions on weekly claims (Please see Weekly Unemployment Claims Hit 500,000, Exceed Every Economist's Estimate; No Lasting Improvement for 9 Months), a perfect 58 out of 58 Economists were overoptimistic regarding the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey. Unexpected Shrinkage Bloomberg reports Factories in Philadelphia Area Unexpectedly Shrink Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly shrank in August for the first time in a year as orders and sales slumped, a sign factories are being hurt by the U.S. economic slowdown.Forecast for "More Modesty"! "We expect the recovery that we've seen in our business to continue, but in a more moderate pace than we've experienced in the first half," Chief Financial Officer Nicholas Fanandakis said on a conference call with analysts.Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey With that undoubtedly overoptimistic "modest recovery" out of the way, please consider actual results from the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey. Results from the Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity weakened in August, after two months of slowing activity. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered negative readings this month.Future Expectations Gap Widens Veritable Disaster This was not a "weak report" this was a "veritable disaster". click on table for sharper image Note that every component of the index except for prices paid is in contraction. This represents a massive squeeze on profits. Also note the huge, widening spread between current conditions and future expectations. One of them is wrong and I suggest manufacturers are taking their clues from clueless economists who continually think things are going to get better. Flashback July 15, 2010 Here are some comments I made a month ago in Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Barely Positive, Future Expectations Overly Optimistic Where To From Here?Amazingly, optimism still remains supreme in nearly every economic report. There is virtually no reason for it. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 19 Aug 2010 09:33 AM PDT Once again the pile of overoptimistic economist estimates continues to mount. Today, weekly unemployment claims hit 500,000 exceeding every forecast. This is (at minimum) the 4th time since March every economist was overly optimistic regarding unemployment claims. Nicely done guys. Bloomberg reports Jobless Claims in U.S. Rose to Highest Since November Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. unexpectedly increased last week to the highest level since November, showing companies are stepping up the pace of firings as the economy slows.Weekly Claims Report Please consider the Unemployment Weekly Claims Report for August 19, 2010. In the week ending Aug. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 500,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 488,000. The 4-week moving average was 482,500, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average of 474,500.Unemployment Claims The weekly claims numbers are volatile so it's best to focus on the trend in the 4-week moving average. 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims The 4-week moving average is still near the peak results of the last two recessions. It's important to note those are raw numbers, not population adjusted. Nonetheless, the numbers do indicate broad, persistent weakness. 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims Since 2007 No Lasting Improvement for 9 Months There has been no lasting improvement since November 14, 2009, over nine months ago. To be consistent with an economy adding jobs coming out of a recession, the number of claims needs to fall to the 400,000 level. At some point employers will be as lean as they can get (and still stay in business). Yet, that does not mean businesses are about to go on a big hiring boom. Indeed, unless consumer spending picks up, they won't. Questions on the Weekly Claims vs. the Unemployment Rate A question keeps popping up in emails: "How can we lose 400,000+ jobs a week and yet have the unemployment rate stay flat and the monthly jobs report show gains?" The answer is the economy is very dynamic. People change jobs all the time. Note that from 1975 forward, the number of claims was generally above 300,000 a week, yet some months the economy added well over 250,000 jobs. Also note that the monthly published unemployment rate is from a household survey, not a survey of payroll data from businesses. That is why the monthly "establishment survey" (a sampling of actual payroll data) is not always in alignment with changes in the unemployment rate. At economic turns the discrepancy can be wide. With census effects nearly played out, It may be quite some time before we weekly claims drop to 400,000 or net hiring that exceeds +250,000. Unemployment claims are clearly in reverse. Want to know why some businesses aren't hiring? Please consider Creating Jobs Carries a Punishing Price Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Creating Jobs Carries a Punishing Price Posted: 19 Aug 2010 08:42 AM PDT Mr. Fleischer, president of Bogen Communications Inc. in Ramsey, N.J., explains "Why I'm Not Hiring" With unemployment just under 10% and companies sitting on their cash, you would think that sooner or later job growth would take off. I think it's going to be later—much later. Here's why.Failed Policies Obama, Geithner, Summers, and all the Keynesian clowns in the administration wonder why stimulus is failing. All they need to do is pick up the phone and talk to small business owners. Actually, all they need to do is use a little common sense. But No.... Instead of using common sense, they all think throwing money at problems will solve them. Then they need a way to pay for their helicopter cash drops, so they raise taxes. Who do those tax hikes hit the most? Small and medium sized businesses. Is it any wonder unemployment remains stubbornly high? Addendum: I received an interesting email from "David" a reader attempting to debunk Mr. Fleischer's reasons for not hiring. One of the items "David" mentioned is the idea that corporations are sitting on cash, something I have also debunked. "David" also challenged Mr. Fleischer's math on on healthcare. Such arguments miss the entire point of the post. It does not matter one iota if Mr. Fleischer is wrong about corporate sideline cash or anything else. What matters is Mr. Fleischer thinks he has sufficient reasons not to hire. On that score I believe Mr. Fleischer is correct. Whether or not he can articulate reasons that others agree with is irrelevant. The pertinent fact is he is not hiring. Moreover, numerous other small business owners think and act just like him. How do we know? Simple ...
For my thoughts on what to do about this mess, please consider Bleak Outlook for Small Businesses and Job Creation; Where Obama Went Wrong, and What to do About It. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Obama's Agenda to Destroy the Few Remaining Solvent States Posted: 19 Aug 2010 01:22 AM PDT In response to Oregon Wins Blue Ribbon for Unfounded Optimism; Everything "Weaker than Expected" several astute readers sent me a link to a Heritage Foundation article regarding public unions, collective bargaining, and their role in the state budget crisis. Inquiring minds are reading Another Taxpayer Handout to Organized Labor Get ready for Organized Labor's biggest congressional handout yet.This insidious bill passed in the US House of Representatives as part of an amendment to a supplemental appropriations bill. The Senate bill is S 1611. Conservative Leaders Oppose Union Power Grab The American Spectator writes Conservative Leaders Oppose Union Power Grab RE: The misleadingly named "Public Safety Employer-Employee Cooperation Act" (originally H.R. 413; S. 1611, 3194). The bill would unconstitutionally abrogate all states' sovereignty, subject state and local public-safety workers to compulsory union "representation," eliminate local government control over the labor relations of their own workers, lead to a rise in labor strife, and further damage fragile state and local government economies by imposing unfunded federal mandates.The Galling thing about all of this is it is perfectly obvious public unions have killed hundreds of cities and dozens of states. President Obama does not give a rat's ass about that nor does anyone who supports this legislation. All the politicians want is to buy votes. Harry Reid's push to nationalize all cop/firemen unions Renew America discusses Harry Reid's push to nationalize all cop/firemen unions. Senate Democrat Majority Leader Harry Reid is quietly trying to nationalize rules governing every police, fire and first responder union in the nation. Through the benignly named Public Safety Employer-Employee Cooperation Act (H.R.413) Reid wants all first responders represented by collective bargaining rules emanating from Washington D.C.The article lists all of the clueless Republicans who co-sponsored the bill. Unfortunately, it is too late to contact your House representatives as they have already passed this monstrosity. It is not too late to contact you senators. The Agenda Reihan Salam writing for the National Review Online comments on The Agenda. For clear evidence that the Senate Republican caucus contains a not inconsiderable number of lunatics, check out Bill Gives Public Workers Clout by Kris Maher in the WSJ.States Affected by the BillThe bill, backed by at least six Republicans in the Senate, prohibits strikes and leaves to states' discretion whether to engage in collective bargaining in several areas, including health benefits and pensions.My strong inclination would be to banish all six from the Republican caucus, but that could be too hasty a judgment. How can we understand the non-logic of those who are even considering voting for the scandalously bad bill? Sen. Mike Johanns of Nebraska dares to call the bill reasonable. The above image from the above WSJ link. What the Hell are they Thinking? I am appalled that any Republican would vote for this piece of crap, yet I see Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH) was a sponsor of this bill along with the deceased Senator Edward Kennedy (D-MA). What the hell is Greg thinking? Also, what are Scott Brown of Massachusetts, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska thinking? Actually not a one of them is thinking at all. It's as if they are all brain dead. Have they not seen what governor Chris Christie is doing for New Jersey? Have they not seen how city and state budgets are crippled by public unions. I am so disgusted I can hardly type. Stop the Madness - Contact Your Senators Please contact your senators and tell them public unions have bankrupted many cities and states. Tell them you oppose Senate bill S-1611 the "Public Safety Employer-Employee Cooperation Act" because it will unconstitutionally take power from the states and limit their ability to respond to budget crises. Tell them to stop usurping on states' rights and most importantly tell them public collective bargaining is the problem, not the solution. We need to outlaw public union collective bargaining, not expand it! Here is the Online Directory For The 111th Congress. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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