Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

US Unemployment Rate Rose in 25 States, Fell in 8, No Change in 17
Cyprus Banks Closed Until Thursday; "Solution is Feasible, Can Be Extrapolated to Spain", Says Spanish Economist; Lies of the Day
Merkel Says "Cyprus is a Special Case" (So was Greece); Is Spain the Next "Special Case"? Portugal? Merkel Guarantees German Deposits

US Unemployment Rate Rose in 25 States, Fell in 8, No Change in 17

Posted: 18 Mar 2013 09:06 PM PDT

Meanwhile, back in the US, USA Today reports jobless rates rose in 25 states, D.C.

Unemployment rates rose in 25 states and the District of Columbia in January, but almost half the states posted rates significantly lower than the national 7.9%, the government reported Monday.

Unemployment fell in eight states and 17 states had no change from December, the Labor Department said in its monthly report on the labor market in all 50 states.

North Dakota again had the lowest rate at 3.3%.

California and Rhode Island tied for the highest unemployment rate — 9.8%. Nevada, which had the second-highest rate, was at 9.7%. Its rate dropped 2.3 percentage points, the most of any state.

Nine states reported significant increases in unemployment rates in January, the government said. Illinois and Mississippi had the largest ones — 0.4 percentage point. Illinois' rate rose to 9% and Mississippi's was 9.3%.

Here is the official Regional Unemployment Report from the BLS.

States with unemployment rates significantly different from that of the U.S., January 2013, seasonally adjusted.

State	Unemployment Rate
United States Average	7.9
Alaska	6.7
California	9.8
Georgia	8.7
Hawaii	5.2
Idaho	6.3
Illinois	9
Iowa	5
Kansas	5.5
Louisiana	5.9
Maryland	6.7
Massachusetts	6.7
Michigan	8.9
Minnesota	5.6
Mississippi	9.3
Missouri	6.5
Montana	5.7
Nebraska	3.8
Nevada	9.7
New Hampshire	5.8
New Jersey	9.5
New Mexico	6.6
North Carolina	9.5
North Dakota	3.3
Ohio	7
Oklahoma	5.1
Rhode Island	9.8
South Dakota	4.4
Texas	6.3
Utah	5.4
Vermont	4.7
Virginia	5.6
Wisconsin	7
Wyoming	4.9

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Cyprus Banks Closed Until Thursday; "Solution is Feasible, Can Be Extrapolated to Spain", Says Spanish Economist; Lies of the Day

Posted: 18 Mar 2013 10:45 AM PDT

Direct robbery of Spanish citizens would net Spain about €120 Billion according to economist Niño Becerra who says "Cyprus Solution is Feasible, Can Be Extrapolated to Spain"

Santiago Niño Becerra, Professor of Economics at the University Ramon Llull in Barcelona, says a tax as imposed on Cyprus in exchange for bailout, would be possible and that "it is very clean, unlike a freeze all balances, which would be a mess."

Through his twitter account, Niño Becerra says it would be more painful for Cypriots if "the bailout were to occur in the form of public debt."

The Spanish government was quick yesterday to claim the Cyprus solution was not applicable to other countries. Niño Becerra disagrees: "I'm not saying this will happen, only that it is feasible, it is possible and if extrapolated to Spain, would be very clean."

Becerra estimated savings using Spanish a "tax" of 10% would raise €120 Billion. A 5% tax would raise €60 Billion, which, added to the €40 Billion commitment would be the amount regulators said a year ago that they may need for Spanish banks.

Direct theft is now considered a "feasible" option for Spain. Lovely.

Cyprus Banks Closed Until Thursday

While pondering that thought, note that Cyprus banks will stay closed until Thursday

The Cypriot central bank has announced that the country's banks will stay closed until later this week as fears mount of a bank run.

The country's banks were closed for a scheduled Bank Holiday on Monday, something that allowed Cyprus to try to implement a levy on savers' deposits. That move triggered unease among depositors in Cyprus, where cash machines soon ran out of funds.

This is the first time the 17-nation eurozone has seen a country dip into people's savings to finance a bailout.

Meanwhile, an emergency session of the Cypriot parliament has been postponed until Tuesday. Also, Germany must approve the plan, but is not due to vote until next month.

Following eurozone finance ministers' negotiations last week, Cyprus became the fifth euro-area country to get a bailout to save its banks, which suffered significant losses because of their exposure to Greek debt.

"When It Becomes Serious You Have to Lie"

Recall the statement by Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg PM and Head Euro-Zone Finance Minister "When it becomes serious, you have to lie"

So, why did Cypriot banks hold so many Greek bonds? They were stupid enough to believe lies by former ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet who insisted there would be no Greek bond haircuts.

Why was this move a shock to Cypriot citizens? They were stupid enough to believe lies by candidate (now president) Nicos Anastasiades when he said there would be no tax on deposits.

Lies of the Day

Today's lie of the day is by Chancellor Angela Merkel who says don't worry, Cyprus is a "Special Case".

How long will citizens of Spain, Portugal, and Italy believe that lie?

The answer is hard to say. People seem willing to believe what they want to hear, even when dealing with known liars.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Merkel Says "Cyprus is a Special Case" (So was Greece); Is Spain the Next "Special Case"? Portugal? Merkel Guarantees German Deposits

Posted: 18 Mar 2013 07:49 AM PDT

The pertinent question for today is "How many lies will people believe?"

I ask that because a German government spokesman says The compulsory levy to pay the depositors in Cyprus, was a special case as Merkel guarantees German deposits for the first time since 2008.

The compulsory levy to pay the depositors in Cyprus, is a "special case", says the Chancellor. Given the compulsory levy in Cyprus, Chancellor Angela Merkel has renewed the deposit guarantee for German savers. "It's the mark of a guarantee" said government spokesman Steffen Seibert. Cyprus is a special case. There are "no parallels with other countries, and thus Cyprus has no effect on them," said Seibert. Unrest among depositors and savers in other euro area countries is therefore not justified.

Reflections on the "Special Case"

I seem to recall Greece too was a "special case". How many more special cases are there? What country is the next special case? Is it Portugal or Spain?

Toss a coin because it does not matter. Deposit guarantees cannot be believed.

Anyone and everyone in Spain and Portugal ought to be pulling out every cent they can out of their banks. Trust has been lost and once again the idiots in Brussels underestimated the reactions to their thuggery.

Why?

The real driver for this blatant theft is the re-election of Merkel.

Heaven forbid Germany provide any more bailout funds lest German voters get upset and flock to "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD - Alternative for Germany), a political party founded by a group of anti-bailout, eurosceptic German professors, businessmen, economists and journalists.

Merkel is willing to cram this "special case" down the throats of Cypriot citizens or her re-election bid in September may be in jeopardy.

Please see Merkel Coalition Doomed; Italy Exit Only a Matter of Time? for comments from reader Bernd who lives in Germany and claims that the anti-euro movement in Germany is far bigger than mainstream media lets on.

Also see Put a German Flag in Cyprus; Poker or Chicken? Cyprus Archbishop Says "Leave the Eurozone and Readopt the Cyprus Pound"

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Monday, March 18, 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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