Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Budget Deficit Accounting Fraud and the Off-Balance-Sheet Student Loan Scam; Time to Scrap Entire Student Loan Program
• "Imagine There's No T-Bonds - It's Easy If You Try"
• Illinois Comptroller Says Stack of Unpaid Bills will Soon Double Despite Tax Increase

Budget Deficit Accounting Fraud and the Off-Balance-Sheet Student Loan Scam; Time to Scrap Entire Student Loan Program Posted: 22 Jan 2011 02:04 PM PST Inquiring minds have been wondering why the federal debt has been rising far faster than cumulative federal deficits. The short answer is off-balance-sheet scams like student loans and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "assets". A complete explanation comes from WC Varones in his post Mystery solved: the difference between the deficit and the increase in national debt The ex-Wall Street types at ZeroHedge chewed on this but couldn't come up with a good explanation. Karl Denninger called it crooked accounting, but couldn't pinpoint the fraud. B-Daddy at the Liberator Today noticed the same thing and didn't have an answer. Then I threw the question over to the academics at Econbrowser: If it's such a simple accounting identity, would you please reconcile the $1.9 trillion and $1.65 trillion debt increases in FY 09 and FY 10 with the alleged deficits of $1.4 trillion and $1.3 trillion for the same fiscal years? And before you answer that it's the Social Security Trust Fund, intragovernmental holdings increased by just $320 billion over the two years. So where's the other $530 billion? None of the academics among the bloggers and commenters at Econbrowser could answer the question, until Menzie Chinn found an expert who could. I and many others suspected the answer was in some off-budget shenanigans like Fannie/Freddie, GMAC, etc. It turns out we were right in general but missed the biggest specific off-budget item: student loans. In table S-14 of this FY2011 OMB Mid-Session Review shown to me by Menzie, you'll see that the financial asset "Direct loan accounts" increased from $489 billion to $689 billion. And the prior Mid-Session Review (table S-15) shows that account at $196 billion at the end of FY08. So an increase in student loans accounted for $393 billion of the missing money over the two years. There's also an increase of $100 billion in "Government-sponsored enterprise preferred stock" (Because Fannie and Freddie are assets to the Treasury, not liabilities, right! How are those preferred dividends working out for you, Timmy?). Together with the student loans and the change in intra-governmental holdings, that explains the vast majority of the difference between the reported two-year deficit and the actual increase in debt. Student Loan Scam Thanks WC, I had been wondering that myself. Let's dig into Table S-14 (page 55 - PDF page 65) and look at projections for "Guaranteed Loan Accounts" under the general heading of "Debt Held by the Public Net of Financial Assets". Using Data from the Table S-14 I made this chart of student loan projections. Student Loan Projections 2009-2020 in $Billions Time to Scrap Entire Student Loan Program That debt is government (taxpayer) guaranteed. It is one of the primary things fueling the ever-rising cost of higher education. Amazingly students scream for more aid, and Obama want to give it to them, even though the debt destroys millions of lives in the process. I propose the entire student loan program be scrapped. Much of that alleged "aid" goes straight to corrupt institutions like the University of Phoenix which charges exorbitant amounts for fluff degrees leaving students trapped as debt slaves for the rest of their lives. For more on the University of Phoenix and other collegiate scams, please consider ... Subprime Goes to College; Students Buried in Debt; Who is to Blame? Debt for Diploma Schemes and the Cookie Monster Principle University of California Campus Erupts In Riots; Student Loan Scam Drives Up Cost Of Education; Expect More Riots Since student debt cannot be discharged in bankruptcy, and since universities get paid by the government, the universities (even legitimate ones) do not care how many lives they destroy. The way to end the madness is to phase out all student loans over the next 3 years, immediately halting all new loans to freshmen. If colleges want to lend directly to students, nothing stops them. However, those debts should not be guaranteed by taxpayers. The second thing we need to do is accredit far more online colleges. There is no reason legitimate courses cannot be offered over the internet at amazingly low prices. These actions would quickly pop the bubble in higher education costs and make college affordable for nearly everyone without putting taxpayers at risk. In the meantime, all off-balance-sheet debt needs to be properly accounted for in budget deficit projections, not hidden in places like Table S-14 where it took an army of people to figure out what was happening. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

"Imagine There's No T-Bonds - It's Easy If You Try" Posted: 22 Jan 2011 11:28 AM PST In "World Comes Together to Save the Euro" I posted a video Beatles' tribute to the idea "Come Together". In response, reader "Spiral" wrote sent in some lyrics that he wrote. The first is to the tune of "Come Together" the second to the tune of John Lennon's "Imagine". I heavily modified the version of "Imagine" he sent in, but the first is entirely his. "Come Together" (buy bonds from me) Here come the issue You get 3 percent coupon You get at deep discount You got 30 yr window You got debt as far as the eye can see You don't get yo money back ain't nothin' be free Come together right now Buy from me ------------------------------------- We sell to China We sell mucho Ja-pan We sell fo Russian Rub-ble Hey this ain't no Bub-ble There ain't no Asian Contagion you see But this far in the hole ain't no place to be Come together right now Buy from me ----------------------------------- We on a roller coaster With some Wall Street cracker He got all our dough & our futures blacker He say one fo all & all fo ME He will cheat you till you all the way down on yo knee Come together right now Buy from me............. "Imagine" Imagine no Bernanke It's easy if you try. No Fed-hell below us, Bills not to the sky. Imagine all the people, With no debt to pay. Imagine there's no T-bonds, It isn't hard to do. No Federal Reserve notes, And no T-Bills too. Imagine real money, Spendable today You may say I'm a dreamer, But I'm not the only one I hope someday you'll join us For a solid gold backed buck Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Illinois Comptroller Says Stack of Unpaid Bills will Soon Double Despite Tax Increase Posted: 22 Jan 2011 04:31 AM PST Illinois is so far behind paying bills that the comptroller says unpaid bills will soon double despite tax increase. Please consider Illinois Statehouse News Old overdue bills still an issue for Illinois The state's stack of unpaid bills will soon double despite an income tax increase, according to state Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka. The four year, temporary personal income tax hike of 67 percent was approved on the final day of the previous Legislature and recently signed by Gov. Pat Quinn. In part, the income tax hike is designed to help Illinois catch up on past-due bills and stop being delinquent on its payments. "Our current backlog of bills stands at $6 billion, and the increased revenues will help address this backlog," said Kelly Kraft, spokeswoman for the governor's Office of Management and Budget. Not quite, according to Topinka, who is in charge of Illinois' checkbook. "By the time we get through four years from now and all of this and what they're able to spend, we will probably have a debt of $12 billion of unpaid bills that have yet to be dealt with," the Riverside Republican said. Topinka said her office is now working on getting last August's bills paid. Shortly after the income tax increase passed the state House of Representatives, House Republican Leader Tom Cross said his caucus would be willing to consider voting for borrowing, but not without some concessions. "We'll look at it to pay our vendors, but we're going to look at it a different way. It might be a smaller amount, we might say you've got to cut somewhere else, we might say you have to look at (workers' compensation), I don't know what else we might say," Cross said. For her part, Topinka has not decided one way or another on the borrowing plan. "It will help to some extent, in terms of paying the bills. I still want to look at that before we sign off on it and see exactly where it goes. I want to read that bill and see exactly what it does. I've signed off on borrowing when I was (state) treasure, but not all the time," she said. If Republicans want concessions, I have one in mind: Make Illinois a right to work state, killing all prevailing wage laws along with it. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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