Thursday, April 24, 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Japan CPI +2.7%; Tale of Two Headlines

Posted: 24 Apr 2014 07:05 PM PDT

Japan's CPI spiked to 2.7% this month. What's more interesting is how it was reported in various places.

Less Than Expected

The Wall Street Journal reports Japan CPI Rises Less Than Expected.
A closely watched Japanese inflation gauge rose a bit less than expected in April, the government said Friday, creating room for possible doubts among Bank of Japan 8301.TO +0.81% policy makers that the recent increase in the domestic sales tax would stoke strong upward price movements.

The core consumer-price index for the Tokyo metropolitan area climbed a preliminary 2.7% from a year earlier in April, the largest gain since 1992, according to data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Core CPI exclude volatile fresh food prices.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal and the Nikkei had expected an increase of 2.8%.

While the figure dwarfed a 1.0% rise in the previous month, the big jump was largely due to a sales tax increase of three percentage points that kicked in at the start of this month. By a Bank of Japan measure that cleans CPI data of the effects of the tax change, underlying inflation in Japan's capital was unchanged at a 1.0% increase.

The nationwide core CPI for March increased 1.3%, the same as in February, the Internal Affairs Ministry said. Economists had expected a 1.4% rise.
Tokyo CPI Spikes To Highest Since 1992

The ZeroHedge headline reads: Tokyo CPI Spikes To Highest Since 1992 (Well Above Abe's 2% Target)
If this evening's data from Tokyo on April's Consumer Price Inflation is any guage on the national inflation picture, those hoping for moar stimulus had better start praying for war. Thanks to favorable comps and the April 1st tax rise, Tokyo CPI jumped to 2.9% YoY - its highest since 1992 - and well above the BoJ's 2% inflation goal. Mission accomplished (almost)... except that the economy just won't play ball and now stocks are fading too (along with Abe's approval ratings).
Which story more accurately reflects what happened? I vote for the WSJ.

 Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Verge of War: Ukraine's Foreign Minister says "We are Ready to Fight"; Russia holds Military Exercises on Border

Posted: 24 Apr 2014 11:07 AM PDT

Tensions in Ukraine took another step for the worse today as Russia held military exercises on the border and Ukraine's foreign minister responded "We are Ready to Fight Russia"
Andriy Deshchytisa said Russia's decision Thursday to launch the military exercises "very much escalates the situation in the region."

Talking to The Associated Press in Prague, Deshchytisa says his country has been taught a lesson by Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula. He says "having this experience, we will now fight with Russian troops if ... they invade Ukraine."

He says "Ukrainian people and Ukrainian army are ready to do this."
Russia holds Military Exercises on Border

The Financial Times reports Russia Plans Military Exercises After Mounting Ukraine Unrest.
Russia has announced military exercises on the border of Ukraine, hours after Kiev sent in its army to flush out armed pro-Russian rebels in the east of the country raising fears about the worsening crisis.

As tensions on the ground escalated, the war of words between Moscow and Kiev also intensified. Russia's President Vladimir Putin warned Ukraine there would be consequences for sending its armed forces into the volatile east to oust separatists from government buildings and checkpoints. Ukraine's acting president Oleksandr Turchynov retaliated on national TV, accusing Russia of "co-ordinating and supporting killer terrorists".

The two leaders' remarks came shortly after Ukraine's army began a big security offensive against the separatist stronghold city of Slavyansk on Thursday, making good on its vow to crack down on armed rebels holding public buildings in the country's east.

But there were reports that Ukrainian troops had withdrawn from a checkpoint north of Slavyansk they had taken over earlier in the day and pro-Russian separatists had moved back in and began to strengthen the position with sandbags.

Tensions have been rising in eastern Ukraine after the tortured body of a local politician – allied to Kiev – was discovered in a river near Donetsk.
Obama Warns Russia Sanctions 'Teed Up'

For sake of completeness, meaningless red line talk comes from president Obama who warns, Sanctions 'Teed Up'
Mr Obama said that it was "a matter of days, not weeks" before new sanctions would be levelled on Russia unless it took decisive steps to reduce the tensions in eastern Ukraine.

The new round of US sanctions is likely to target more of the business figures around the Russian leader Vladimir Putin as well as potentially some banks or state-owned companies. US officials have said that the broader, sectoral sanctions that the White House now has the power to impose are only likely if there is an explicit Russian military intervention in eastern and southern Ukraine.

Danylo Lubkivsky, Ukraine's deputy foreign minister, said on Thursday that it was time to impose new sanctions on Russia. Speaking on a visit to Washington, he said he still hoped for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis, but he insisted that "Russia has already crossed a new red line, so we need to impose further economic pressure on the Kremlin".

Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former US national security adviser, said that events in Ukraine were quickly spinning out of control. "I fear we are stumbling into a crisis which is unpredictable," he said. "But I still think there is a residual chance for reaching some sort of accommodation."
I still suspect cooler heads will prevail. Let's hope so. Perhaps it would help if Ukraine repeated its offer of amnesty to rebels who lay down their weapons now.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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