Monday, April 21, 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Inane Step in Wrong Direction: Germany Plans to Lower Retirement Age for Some Workers From 65 to 63

Posted: 21 Apr 2014 06:10 PM PDT

With people living longer and longer, and with Germany forcing higher retirement ages on Greece and Spain, lowering the retirement age in Germany for any set of workers makes no sense whatsoever. Yet, that is exactly what's slated to happen.

Wrong Signal

The Financial Times reports Germany Attacked Over Plan to Cut Retirement Age.
Speaking to national paper Die Welt, Günther Oettinger, German EU commissioner, said that Germany's plans to allow longer-serving employees to retire at the age of 63 sent the "wrong signal" at a time when countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal are struggling to introduce tough labour market reforms.

"We expect Greeks to work longer for less pay," said Mr Oettinger. "They are now wondering that Germany is going in the other direction."

Warning that the eurozone's largest economy faces a skills shortage, the EU energy commissioner said that politicians should start to talk instead about a retirement age of 70 and help equip people with professional training for a longer working life.

Greece and Spain have agreed to raise their retirement age from 65 to 67, while Portugal recently pushed its retirement age up to 66.

Under draft laws set to come into effect in July, people who have worked at least 45 years since the age of 18 will be allowed to retire at 63 with a full state pension. The official age of retirement in Germany is in the process of being raised from 65 to 67.

Economists at Deutsche Bank estimate the total cost of the coalition's pension reforms will total €230bn by 2030 and have warned that the burden of paying for people in retirement will fall on the country's younger generation.
Demographically Speaking

From a demographic standpoint, with fewer and fewer workers supporting retirees whose lifespan  and medical costs continually rise,  the change is as puzzling as it is ludicrous.

Note: 

Some people reported the Greenwald interview Youtube link in a previous post "was taken down". I am  not sure why but I found a replacement: Greenwald Interview:

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Chinese Court Seizes Japanese Ship to Settle WWII Dispute

Posted: 21 Apr 2014 10:37 AM PDT

Tensions between China and Japan escalated once again, this time over a grudge dating back to WWII.

The Financial Times reports Japanese Ship Seized in WWII Claims Dispute.
A Chinese court has seized a Japanese cargo ship over legal claims related to the second world war as escalating tensions between the two countries spill into the realm of commerce.

Japan was quick to denounce the confiscation of the vessel, warning it could have a "chilling effect on all Japanese companies doing business in China". It is the first time a Chinese court has ordered the seizure of Japanese assets in relation to second world war.

The incident underlines strained relations between China and Japan, who have recently sparred over a string of disputed islands that some analysts say is the most dangerous faultline in Asia. Extensive economic ties between the two countries have so far served to stabilise the relationship.

The Shanghai Maritime Court seized the Baosteel Emotion at a port near Shanghai at the weekend, it said on its website. The ship belongs to Japanese conglomerate Mitsui OSK Lines and had been ferrying Australian iron ore to China's flagship steel mill Baosteel.

Japan has consistently argued that the peace treaties it signed after the war exempt it from having to pay compensation to individuals or companies in former enemy countries. But China and South Korea, which nurse the strongest resentment over Japan's often brutal imperial expansion, counter that the agreements only cover government-to-government reparations, leaving private groups free to sue for damages.

Still, for many years China discouraged any claims by its citizens against Japan, whether for forced labour, sexual slavery or asset seizures. Former premier Zhou Enlai explicitly rejected the prospect of any Chinese wartime claims, in return for assurances of Japanese development aid and investment. As a result, Chinese activists have had to pursue claims in Japanese courts.

"Overall China is dissatisfied with Japan, so a lot of matters have re-emerged," said Shen Dingli, an expert in Northeast Asian geopolitics at Fudan University in Shanghai. "In the past they might have discouraged suits like this but now they don't stand in the way."

Last year, South Korean courts ruled against Japanese corporations in two landmark cases involving Koreans forced into labour for the Japanese war effort.

Trade wars, currency wars, and beggar-thy-neighbor tactics are hallmarks of deflationary times. When the global economy is good and jobs plentiful, age-old disputes like these seldom surface.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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