Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Short Translation of Obama's Speech: "Flip Flop"; Long Translation: "I Don't Have the Votes"

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 09:11 PM PDT

Readers may be interested in the Full Text of Obama's War-Mongering Speech on Syria.

Fake Diplomacy

I can sum up Obama's speech in two words "Flip Flop".

Obama backed down from his John Wayne McCain guns-a-blazing approach to a  fake-diplomatic stance "I have, therefore, asked the leaders of Congress to postpone a vote to authorize the use of force while we pursue this diplomatic path."

Mish Translation "God damn it! I don't have the votes"

No Votes

Failure to attain a majority in Congress was clear earlier today when Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell Said 'No' On Syria Strike.

"Does Assad's use of chemical weapons pose a threat to the national security interests of the United States? And the answer to that question is fairly obvious: Even the president himself says it doesn't," McConnell said.

McConnell stood his ground in contrast to House Speaker John Boehner, Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid who, like John McCain wanted to proceed with warmongering regardless of costs.

Politico notes "In just the past 24 hours, GOP senators including Roy Blunt of Missouri, Dean Heller of Nevada, Mike Enzi of Wyoming, Johnny Isakson of Georgia and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee have all come out against a strike."

Putin Saves Obama's Ass

Seems to me, Putin saved Obama's ass with a proposal to let Syria destroy its weapons. Obama turned a "God damn it! I don't have the votes" horror story into a diplomatic "Give Peace a Chance" moment.

Putin gained stature and Obama lost stature. Putin's win is Obama's loss even if temporarily allows Obama to save face.

Hitler Card In Play

Nonetheless, I do not buy the "give peace a chance" line, especially since Obama played the "Hitler Card".

"In World War II, the Nazis used gas to inflict the horror of the Holocaust. Because these weapons can kill on a mass scale, with no distinction between soldier and infant, the civilized world has spent a century working to ban them", said Obama.

A few Days Ago the Guardian accurately appraised the situation as "Faced with sparse support for launching cruise missiles into a civil war, John Kerry compared Bashar al-Assad": Adolf Hitler: When in doubt, say 'Hitler'

Assad (assuming he used gas at all, and that is debatable) used it on political enemies in a civil war. Hitler planned to exterminate an entire race of people, simply because of their race and their faith.

Seriously, how lame is that comparison?

What's the Difference Between the US Using Chemical Weapons and Others Doing the Same?



Blatant Hypocrisy

David Stockman nails the heart of US war-mongering hypocrisy with this question:

"After having rained napalm, white phosphorous, bunker busters, drone missiles, and the most violent machinery of conventional warfare ever assembled upon millions of innocent Vietnamese, Cambodians, Serbs, Somalis, Iraqis, Afghans, Pakistanis, Yemeni, Libyans, and countless more, Washington now presupposes to be in the moral-sanctions business?"

For further Stockman discussion, please see End of U.S. Imperium—Finally!? Obama About to Suffer Glorious Defeat in Congress?

The hypocrisy of Obama (like Bush before him) is astounding. The biggest user of chemical weapons in history is the United States of America.

Don't believe it? For details, please see U.S. Going to Kill Syrians to Show Syria that Killing Syrians is Wrong

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Latest Polls Not Looking Good For Merkel, 12 Days Before election

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 12:43 PM PDT

The German election is on September 22. And with 12 days remaining, things do not look good for a Grand Coalition headed by Merkel.

Via translation, the latest INSA poll looks like this:

  • CDU/CSU - 39%
  • SPD - 28%
  • Grüne (Greens) - 11%
  • Die Linke (Left) - 8%
  • FDP - 4%
  • AfD - 3%
  • Pirate - 3%

I believe AfD will make the 5% cut. I do not know if FDP will make the cut. If neither makes the cut, an unstable "Grand Coalition" is theoretically possible three ways.

Possible Coalitions if Neither AfD Nor FDP Get 5%

  1. SPD + Grüne + Die Linke
  2. CDU/CSU + SPD ("Grand Coalition" with Merkel)
  3. CDU/CSU + SPD ("Grand Coalition" without Merkel)

Possible Coalitions if AfD, not FDP Gets 5%

  1. CDU/CSU + AfD (with Merkel)
  2. CDU/CSU + AfD (without Merkel)
A grand coalition including SPD is theoretically possible.

Possible Coalitions if FDP not AfD Gets 5%

  1. CDU/CSU + FDP (with Merkel)

Again, a grand coalition with SPD is also theoretically possible.

There are numerous combinations if FDP and AfD both get 5%.

One More Merkel Snag

The CDU/CSU-FDP, CDU/CSU-AfD, and CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP possibilities all assume a working majority.

A coalition of CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP would easily have a majority.

A coalition of CDU/CSU + FDP might not have a majority if SDP continues to gain at the expense of CDU/CSU.

Election Not Over

With many sitting the election out and with many undecided voters likely to vote for someone other than CDU/CSU or SPD, this election is hardly over.

Indeed, the mess gets rather complicated if SPD tops 28% and the Greens and Left come close to 10% each. And that outcome is not out of the question.

Merkel should hope that any CDU/CSU slippage goes to FDP and AfD, not anywhere else.

Is CDU/CSU + AfD that bad an option? I think not, but I do not get to vote.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Obama Supporters Sign "Karl Marx for President" Petition

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 08:50 AM PDT

In the following video, Mark Dice, tells passers-by that Obama endorses Karl Marx for president in the 2016 election. People willingly sign a petition to get Karl Marx on the ballot.



Link if video does not play: Communist Karl Marx Endorsed by Obama

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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