Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Stupid Times: NBA Star Puts ATM in Kitchen; Peak Sport Salaries?
GDP, Real GDP, and Shadowstats "Theater of the Absurd" GDP
New Confusion Over Hispanbonos and Regional Debt: Spanish Regional Government Accounting Postponed, Press Conference by Montoro is Postponed; Regional Government Debt Issuance Method Unclear
Capital Flight Intensifies to Record Levels in Spain; Outflows Make Spanish Banks Increasingly Reliant on ELA Funding
Eurozone Retail Sales Crash: Record Declines in France and Italy, Overall Revenues Drop at Near Record Pace

Stupid Times: NBA Star Puts ATM in Kitchen; Peak Sport Salaries?

Posted: 31 May 2012 07:16 PM PDT

As a prime example of the extreme disparities between the haves and the have-nots as well as how stupid things have gotten in general, please consider DeShawn Stevenson Installs ATM In Kitchen

For the sports star who has everything there remains one tiresome problem – how do you get hold of your millions without having to leave the house?

Stevenson, 31, who has earned more than $26 million so far in a 12-year playing career in the NBA, was so proud of his latest unique accessory that he posed for a photograph with it.

It was not clear whether his free-standing cash machine will charge Stevenson and his friends a fee each time they use it.

Stevenson was arrested last year for public intoxication in Texas.

Peak Sport Salaries?

A friend writes: "Mish this is proof positive sports salaries have peaked or are about to peak."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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GDP, Real GDP, and Shadowstats "Theater of the Absurd" GDP

Posted: 31 May 2012 11:43 AM PDT

Every month Doug Short at Advisor Perspective writes an excellent report on GDP. With today's release of the Q1 GDP Second Estimate, Doug Short has a new column worth a good look: Will the "Real" GDP Please Stand Up? (The Deflator Makes Big a Difference).

How do you get from Nominal GDP to Real GDP? You subtract inflation. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) uses its own GDP deflator for this purpose, which is somewhat different from the BEA's deflator for Personal Consumption Expenditures and quite a bit different from the better-known Bureau of Labor Statistics' inflation gauge, the Consumer Price Index.

The Lower the Deflator, the Higher the GDP

I have a note at the bottom showing the real GDP calculation method. Suffice to say that the higher the increase in compounded annual percentage change in the deflator, the lower the real GDP. Conversely the lower the increase (or if there is a decrease), the higher the real GDP.

GDP Four Ways

Doug Short calculates the GDP using four different deflators.

GDP deflator (official number) : GDP +1.86, 10-Yr Moving Average +1.7
PCE deflator (personal consumption expenditures) : GDP +1.13, 10-Yr Moving Average +1.6
CPI deflator (consumer price index) : GDP +1.05, 10-Yr Moving Average +1.4
Using John Williams' Shadowstat measure of inflation : GDP -10.50, 10-Yr Moving Average -5.1

The first three charts are all similar looking but charts 2 or 3 seems more reasonable than the official numbers. Here are two of the charts.

Real GDP Using PCE

click on chart for sharper image

Shadowstats GDP

click on chart for sharper image

Doug Short Writes ...

I find this "alternate Real" GDP to be interesting (in a bizarre sort of way), but I personally see no credibility in the hyper-negative GDP it produces. On the contrary, I see this chart as further evidence that the alternate CPI, despite its popular among many critics of government data, is a misguided concept.

Alternate Nonsense

Bizarre is a polite way of putting things. I would call it total nonsense. For Williams to be correct one would have to believe the economy was in a recession the vast majority of the time for the last 25 years.

Williams has a huge following, mainly by the hyperinflationist crowd. Williams himself has been predicting hyperinflation for some time.

December 12, 2010: Williams Calls for "Great Hyperinflationary Great Depression"; A Very Easy Rebuttal
May 25, 2011: Hyperinflation Nonsense in Multiple Places

All of the hyperinflation calls have been missed by a mile. The dollar is strengthening, consumer credit is once again sinking, and treasury yields just made 60-year lows.

This is what happens when you fail to take into consideration:

Credit conditions Global economic conditions
Printing by other central banks especially China
Currency instability in Europe
Untenable situation in Japan

Williams makes all of those mistakes, being far too US-centric in his analysis, and compounds the errors by methodology that produces the absurd results shown above and also by confusing unfunded liabilities with debt.

$1.06 Trillion of Consumer Debt is Currently Delinquent

Note that according to the latest HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT report by the Fed, consumer credit other than student debt is contracting. Also note that $1.06 trillion of consumer debt is currently delinquent, with $796 billion seriously delinquent.

Think that will be paid back? I don't. And Hyperinflationists fail to understand the ramifications.

I happen to agree that the US has a day-of-reckoning coming, but the entire fiat global financial system fueled by insane levels of fractional reserve lending will come crashing down at the same time.

That is precisely why this deflationist (unlike others) happens to like gold as a safe haven.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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New Confusion Over Hispanbonos and Regional Debt: Spanish Regional Government Accounting Postponed, Press Conference by Montoro is Postponed; Regional Government Debt Issuance Method Unclear

Posted: 31 May 2012 09:42 AM PDT

My friend Bran who lives in Spain writes ...

Hello Mish

There is new confusion over hispabonos and regional accounting. Spanish regional government accounting has been delayed, a press conference by Montoro is delayed, and the joint government/regional government debt issuance method is still not completely clear.

Bran

Hispabonos are central government guarantees of regional debt. The regional governments want central guarantees because without them, interest rates will skyrocket.

Presentation of Accounting Postponed

Courtesy of Google Translate from El Economista: The Government postponed the presentation of the accounts of the CCAA's first quarter

The Ministry of Finance has decided to postpone the press conference that he would publish the budget execution of the regions for the first quarter of the year in the National Accounts. Montoro endorse autonomy and park each issue of 'hispanobonos.

The hearing, scheduled for 17:00 am today, was postponed because Cristobal Montoro "presented tomorrow to the Council of Ministers a report on the evolution of these data," the statement sent by the Department.

Financing

Predictably, Montoro will also benefit the Council of Ministers to discuss a new system of funding helps communities, claimed in a while.

Autonomy asked directly the implementation of hispanobonos, although the executive has never been convinced of this option by the risk that the cost encareciera Treasury issues and weaken the 'rating' of Spain.

The most reasonable for the Department led by Montoro endorse passes through debt issues of the autonomous communities individually and provided they meet the deficit target and the corresponding recovery plan.

This would be a personal guarantee, conditional and voluntary, which should be specifically requested by a community and to be granted for specific purposes on condition that the community complies with the deficit.

Regional Governments Press for Hispanbonos

The clear gist is regional governments are in severe trouble, probably much worse than reported.

Delays are needed to present the facts to the Spanish central government which is now pressed by regional authorities once again to guarantee regional debt.

Hispanbonos Already a Done Deal?

Interestingly RTE News reported yesterday in Debt premium on Spanish bonds hits euro-era high that hispanbonos were already a done deal.

Spain's government said it would approve the issuing of joint bonds -- "hispanobonos" -- by the 17 regional governments next Friday, so as to make it cheaper for them to finance their debts.

"The goal is to reduce the pressure on the regions, which is often greater than the pressure on the state in general, with some regions not able to borrow on the market," a spokeswoman for the Economy Ministry said.

Spain's 17 regional governments have suffered a plunge in tax revenues and soaring debt since the collapse of a decade-long property boom in 2008, and they are struggling to pay suppliers.

Bankia's board on Friday asked the state to inject €19 billion to help it abide by more stringent capital rules, in addition to €4.465 billion invested by the state earlier this month.

Spanish media said other troubled banks could need yet another €30 billion.

Providing a grim backdrop, the Bank of Spain issued a report predicting Spain's recession, which began in the last quarter of 2011, would continue at least until mid-2012.

Official data also showed retail sales plummeted 9.8% in April, the steepest monthly drop in since the statistical series began in 2003.

Despite the downturn, Spain's government says it is determined to press ahead with an austerity programme to slash the deficit to 3.0% of economic output by 2013 from 8.9% last year.

Hispanbonos may (and should) trigger additional debt downgrades of Spanish sovereign debt and send yields higher. However, without guarantees, regional governments are going to have an exceptionally difficult time financing new debt and rolling over existing debt as well.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Capital Flight Intensifies to Record Levels in Spain; Outflows Make Spanish Banks Increasingly Reliant on ELA Funding

Posted: 31 May 2012 08:52 AM PDT

Here is a note regarding capital flight in Spain and Greece that I received via email.

Capital flight has intensified to record levels in Spain but interestingly leveled off in Greece. Capital flight from Greece is expected to resume when next reported given statements by the Greek president.

The original source of this information appears to be Credit Suisse AG.

Spanish private Sector Deposit numbers dropping at a faster rate

The Spanish bond markets continue to be viewed with both suspicion and concern by would be investors, with the shocking size of the Bankia bailout send clear warning signs of what else might yet emerge from the Spanish banking sector. Investors were also unimpressed by what appears to have been a very poorly thought out strategy for recapitalising Bankia, with the ECB indicating that they were not consulted by the Spaniard's before the bonds-for-repo strategy was announced. The Spanish government has lost further credibility because of its handling of this issue, and has since announced that it will indeed have to raise cash from the markets and use the proceeds to recapitalise Bankia.

The ECB published the latest aggregated balance sheet of the euro area MFI's on Wednesday, which contained the usual array of interesting and relevant data. The Spanish numbers were obviously in focus given the markets current attention to the Iberian peninsula. The data showed that the run up in bank buying of Spanish Government bonds came to an end in April, with a net reduction of €3.3bn in holdings being recorded at month end.

The private sector deposit numbers were also closely looked at, with April seeing a huge €31.5bn reduction in deposits being placed by households and non-financial corporates. This was close to the all time record outflow posted back in January 2010, though that number was driven by year end reporting factors. The April 2012 number appears to be much more significant, and is likely to be repeated in May. Over the last 7 months the net reduction in Spanish Private Sector Deposits has now totalled €92.2bn. These outflows make the Spanish banks increasingly reliant on ELA funding via the Bank of Spain.

Interestingly the ECB data showed that the recent deposit flight reported in Greece appears to have levelled off, with the amount of private sector deposits actually increasing by €400mn in April. This was the second consecutive monthly increase, after two large outflows were reported in January and February. Given the commentary from the Greek President earlier this month we would expect to see a sharp increase in outflows when the May numbers are reported at the end of next month.

At an aggregate level it remains quite clear that most of the deposit outflows from the peripheral nations are being recycled to other parts of the euro-zone. Germany and Holland in particular have seen large inflows of deposits in the months where the peripheral nations have seen outflows. These balances are effectively getting recycled back to the home country each day, via the ECB's TARGET 2 cash management system. As the inflows get larger so too does the TARGET 2 imbalance, causing even greater cross border systemic risk. The Bundesbank in particular has been awake to this issue for some time, noting that the risk of losses is high if a debtor nation does decide to suddenly leave the euro-zone.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Eurozone Retail Sales Crash: Record Declines in France and Italy, Overall Revenues Drop at Near Record Pace

Posted: 31 May 2012 12:20 AM PDT

Retail sales in France, Italy, and the eurozone as a whole hit the skids according to Markit. Retail sales in Germany were positive, but barely.

Steepest Decline in French History

Further sharp fall in French retail sales during May

Key points:

Month-on-month decline in sales matches April's survey-record

Steepest year-on-year decline in series history

Purchase price inflation eases to near-stagnation

Sales fell on an annual basis at the steepest pace recorded since the inception of the survey in January 2004. Margins continued to be squeezed amid an intense competitive environment, despite purchase price inflation easing to near-stagnation.

The headline Retail PMI® registered 41.4 in May, matching April's survey-record low. French retailers indicated that actual sales came in well below previously set targets during May. The degree of undershoot was the greatest since February 2010.

Record Declines in Italy

Record year-on-year decrease in Italian retail sales in May

Key points:

High street spending down sharply, albeit at weaker monthly rate

Job shedding steepest in series history

Discounting and cost inflation reduce profitability

Summary:

The Italian retail sector remained in contraction during May, with sales again falling sharply in spite of widespread discounting. Cost pressures meanwhile grew from April's recent low on the back of rising transport costs, thereby adding more pressure to margins. Consequently, firms shed staff at a marked and accelerated rate that was the steepest since data were first compiled in January 2004.

High street spending across Italy contracted sharply on the month during May, albeit at a slightly slower rate than that registered during April. This was signalled by the seasonally adjusted Italian Retail PMI® posting at 35.8, up from 32.8. Sales fell for the fifteenth month straight, and panellists continued to highlight low consumer confidence and falling disposable incomes as the main factors behind the decline.

German Sales Show Slight Growth

German retail sales return to growth in May

Key points:

Retail PMI points to marginal month-on-month rise in sales

Like-for-like sales higher than one year earlier

Wholesale price inflation eases markedly

The seasonally adjusted Germany Retail PMI rose from 47.4 in April to 50.7 in May, to indicate a marginal increase in sales on a month-on-month basis. That said, the rate of expansion was lower than those seen throughout the first quarter of 2012. Companies that reported a rise in sales since April generally noted that more favourable weather conditions had resulted in higher customer footfall.

Survey respondents indicated that actual sales fell short of initial targets for the second month running in May.

Sharp Drop in Overall Sales, Revenues Decline at Near Record Pace

Eurozone retail sales continue to fall sharply in May

Key points:

Retail PMI improves to 43.3, but still signals steep monthly drop in sales

Near-record annual fall in sales

Wholesale price inflation slows sharply

Summary of May findings:

The Eurozone retail sector remained firmly in contraction in May, according to PMI® data from Markit. Sales fell sharply on a month-on-month basis, and revenues compared with a year ago were down at a near-record rate. There were signs of easing pressure on retailer's purchasing costs, however, as the rate of purchase price inflation slowed sharply to a 19-month low.

This should bury the notion the eurozone recession will be short and shallow.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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Thursday, May 31, 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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