Saturday, September 17, 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


More on the Coming Wave of Foreclosures

Posted: 17 Sep 2011 02:30 PM PDT

In response to Mortgage Default Notices Surge 33% Nationwide, 55% in California, 200% by Bank of America; Corresponding Jump in Foreclosures Will Follow Patrick Pulatie at LFI Analytics writes ....
Hello Mish,

This is what was expected, and the timing is just about right.

Apr 13, 2011, the OCC ordered the Consent Decree affecting 16 entities, banks, servicers, & MERS. The lenders were given 60 days to present plans how meet the demands of the Decree, and 60 days to actually implement the plans, which would have been Aug 13.

The Decree covered the foreclosure process, and specifically addressed MERS and Certifying Officers. The Decree detailed what need to be done to ensure that any MERS signing and foreclosure was lawful in the particular state where the property was located.

Combine this with the MERS "order" to foreclose in the lenders name, decisions like Gomes v Countrywide in the CA Appeals Court, and now the 9th Circuit ruling supporting MERS, the lenders can begin to foreclose again with relative ease, as long as they follow the Decree.

Likely, much of the rest of the country will experience similar actions, especially since the lid has been lifted in New Jersey.

Most of the homeowner lawsuits to come will be based upon issues with loan modifications. There will still be some based upon foreclosure processes, but these will likely be on pre Aug 13, initiations. Of course, for large numbers of attorneys, they will still file actions based upon the old allegations, but such attorneys only care about the income stream.

There are 1.9 million homes over 90 days late in the US. 6.9 million are delinquent. So, we can see what is coming.

Also, I am now noticing a new trend. Homeowners who received legitimate HAMP loans in 2010 and were able to afford repayment are now re-defaulting again. This time, like before, the defaults are caused by substantial loss of income due to the economy. I expect to see much more coming.

Patrick Pulatie
One of the key rulings that will increase the rate of foreclosures comes from the 9th Circuit Court. Please see 9th Circuit Court Ruling Legitimizes MERS for details.

Addendum:

Pulatie pinged me with this comment
Calvo v HSBC

This case in California just clarified that there is no need for any Assignment of the Deed of Trust to be recorded prior to foreclosure.
Statute CCC 2932.5 is put to rest.

It essentially nails the coffin lid closed on foreclosure defenses that attorneys have been using, when combined with the 9th Circuit ruling and Gomes v Countrywide.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Germany Rejects Geithner's Leveraged Rescue Fund Proposal; First Time Ever, Majority of Germans No Longer See Benefits to Eurozone Membership

Posted: 17 Sep 2011 08:47 AM PDT

It's good to see someone thinking clearly, and that someone is certainly not Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner who wants to dump more Euro risk on the backs of European taxpayers, especially German taxpayers.

Bloomberg reports Germany Rejects Using ECB Leverage to Increase European Rescue Fund's Size
Germany's top two finance officials rejected using the European Central Bank to boost the euro-area rescue fund's firepower, rebuffing a suggestion by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

"The EFSF's sole purpose is the financing of states and that's in order as long as it's done via the capital market," Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann told reporters today. "If it's done via the central bank it constitutes monetary state financing," which is forbidden under European Union rules.

"We don't think that real economic and social problems can be solved by means of monetary policy," said German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, speaking alongside Weidmann after the meeting of EU finance ministers and central bank governors. "That has never been the European model and it won't be."
60% of Germans See No Benefit to Being Part of Eurozone

Please consider Wolf Richter's excellent article on recent German polls and the rebuffing of Geithner: Bailout Rebellion in Germany Heats Up
For the first time ever, a clear majority (60%) of Germans no longer sees any benefits to being part of the Eurozone, given all the risks, according to a poll published September 16 (FAZ, article in German). In the age group 45 to 54, it jumps to 67%. And 66% reject aiding Greece and other heavily indebted countries. Ominously for Chancellor Angela Merkel, 82% believe that her government's crisis management is bad, and 83% complain that they're kept in the dark about the politics of the euro crisis.

"There cannot be any prohibition to think" just so that the euro can be stabilized, wrote Philipp Rösler, Minister of Economics and Technology, in a commentary published on September 9 (Welt, article in German). "And the orderly default of Greece is part of that," he added. Instantly, all hell broke loose, and Denkverbot (prohibition to think) became a rallying cry against the onslaught of criticism that his remarks engendered.

Even Timothy Geithner, who attended the meeting of European finance ministers in Poland, fired off a broadside in Rösler's direction. In the same breath, he proposed the expansion—through leverage, of all things—of the European bailout mechanism, the EFSF. According to Austrian Finance Minister, Maria Fekter, who witnessed the scene, he warned of "catastrophic" economic risks due to the disputes among the countries of the Eurozone and due to the conflicts between these countries and the ECB. Then he demanded in dramatic terms, she said, that "we grab money with our hands to stabilize the banks and expand the EFSF unconditionally."

The smack-down was immediate. German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, took Geithner to task and explained to him in no uncertain terms, according to Fekter, that it was not possible to burden the taxpayers to that extent, particularly not if only the taxpayers of Triple-A countries were to be burdened. A bailout "with tax money alone in the quantity that the USA imagines will not be feasible," Schäuble said. (Wiener Zeitung, article in German).

Vocal support for Rösler came today from a group of 16 prominent German economists. If the government in its efforts to stabilize the euro didn't consider the insolvency of a member country, they warned, Germany would become subject to endless extortion (FAZ, article in German). And to impose a Denkverbot concerning it would be a step back into "top-down state thinking." They further lamented that these policies would turn the Eurozone into a transfer union. If the government wanted to establish a transfer union, it should discuss that with the German voters, they demanded, because it would be a fundamental change in the E.U. constitution and should be legitimized by vote. Otherwise, Germany would be "threatened by a populist movement to exit the E.U."
Future Decided at the Polls

There's more in Richter's article including preposterous demands for Eurobonds by the Italian Finance Minister. Fortunately, the Eurobond idea is dead, thanks to a sensible ruling by the German courts.

Looking ahead, what Merkel wants will not matter after the next election. She will be toast, as will the leaders of Spain, Italy, and Greece.

French president Sarkozy may not survive either although some have written from France that his anti-Euro opponent, Marine Le Pen has no chance. I would certainly like to see some recent polls on that. Anyone have any?

Regardless, sentiment has clearly changed in Germany. Moreover, Finland and Austria have had enough of bailouts as well.

For more on breakup possibilities and ramifications, please see Eurozone Breakup Logistics (Never Believe Anything Until It's Officially Denied)

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


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