Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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China PMI barely Above Contraction; Chinese Stocks Slump as Manufacturing Slows Posted: 22 Apr 2013 09:10 PM PDT Bloomberg reports Chinese Stocks Slump Most in Three Weeks as Manufacturing Slows China's stocks fell, dragging the benchmark index down the most in three weeks, as data showed the country's manufacturing growing at a slower pace. The Shanghai Composite has slumped 9.7 percent from a Feb. 6 high, on concern slowing growth will hurt earnings. China's economy expanded 7.7 percent in the first quarter, missing estimates, as industrial production and fixed-asset investments in March fell short of forecasts. Rising Chinese home prices may limit scope for stimulus as President Xi Jinping seeks to prevent a real-estate bubble. "This has been a very narrowly based recovery, predominantly driven by infrastructure investment, but now even infrastructure investment is also apparently slowing down," said Tao Dong, head of Asia economics excluding Japan at Credit Suisse Group AG in Hong Kong. China PMI barely Above Contraction As I have said on numerous occasions, China's infrastructure build-out is both ridiculous and unsustainable. Yet that does not stop for one second the cheerleading. For example please consider the Markit report headline for China Manufacturing that shows Operating conditions improve marginally in April It is really tough to spin that stagnation, assuming you even believe it (I don't), into something positive. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC managed to do just that. Qu stated "The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI came in at a two-month low, but still managed to expand modestly in April, albeit at a much slower pace. However, new export orders contracted after a temporary rebound in March, suggesting external demand for China's exporters remains weak. Weaker overall demand has also started to weigh on employment in the manufacturing sector. Beijing is expected to respond strongly to sustain the economic recovery by increasing efforts to boost domestic investment and consumption in the coming months." Really? 50.5 is "modest expansion"?! Would 49.5 have been "modest contraction?" Let's at least be honest about this. At best China is stagnating and this is in spite of an unwarranted and unsustainable infrastructure build-out. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

A Brief Lesson in History: Video of Mish Presentation at the Wine Country Conference Posted: 22 Apr 2013 10:31 AM PDT My speech, "A Brief Lesson in History", is available at Wine Country Conference Speaker Presentations. The videos are the actual presentations, and we are making a couple of them available each week for three weeks. John Hussman's presentation "An Unstable Equilibrium" was posted last week. Speaker presentation material, Yahoo! Finance media interviews, and associated articles on Advisor Perspectives are now available online at Wine Country Conference Speaker Slides. If you enjoy the videos and slides please consider making a Donation to the Les Turner ALS Foundation. Specify "Mish Campaign" on the donation to earmark funds for research. All told, we raised nearly $500,000 for ALS research, subject to final audit. $100,000 of that came from a very generous matching donation from the Hussman Foundation. Thanks again for a successful 2013 WCC and we look forward to many more! The 2014 conference will raise money for autism research and programs. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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