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| Making Social Security Actuarially Sound in a Business-Friendly Manner Posted: 11 Jan 2013 12:42 PM PST In Social Security Payouts Per Worker; Accrued Interest on Accrued Promises; Imagination I posted numerous charts showing the unsustainable nature of the system. First let's review the background, then I will address what can be done to make the system Actuarially Sound. Here is one key chart from reader Tim Wallace followed by commentary. Social Security Burden on Non-Farm Workers  Accrued Interest on Accrued Promises Social Security assets are nothing but IOUs, and interest income is actually interest on money long since spent. The entire "Trust Fund" is nothing but a promise to pay. There are no real assets (other than the ability to raise taxes to meet current expenses). Everything else is just a promise, and even more absurdly, accrued interest on accrued promises. The chart provided by Wallace should give everyone second thoughts about the ability to raise taxes to meet expenses. Imagination The key point is Social Security is now cash flow negative although imaginary assets have increased in value, based on imaginary interest, and imaginary ability of taxpayers to forever keep meeting escalating payouts. Here is another chart from my earlier post Social Security Trends: Beneficiaries, Total Costs, Number of Workers, Ratio of Workers to Beneficiaries Total Annual Cost of Social Security 1967-Present  Social Security Beneficiaries vs. Total Non-Farm Employment  Here is the chart from the Social Security Administration that shows the system is cash-flow negative even though alleged assets have increased in value. Trust Fund Data  Payroll Tax Cut The system turned cash flow negative in Fiscal Year 2012, far earlier than anyone expected, primarily because of the payroll tax cut. However, that cut was rescinded in the Fiscal Cliff agreement so the system will temporarily be back in the green this year. Looking ahead, and ignoring accrued interest on imaginary assets what can be done to make the system solvent? Actually, Social Security is not that difficult a problem (at least in comparison to Medicare), except for the politics of it all. Numerous things could be done to put the system in the green. Possible Ways to Make Social Security Actuarially Sound
Democrats would oppose 1 and 3. Republicans might oppose all but 3. Pragmatists might want to do all of them. Business Point of View Let's leave politics aside and discuss this from a business point of view. Is it possible to decrease the burden on businesses while not hurting those making less than $250,000 a year? There is no free lunch of course, but think about the possibility of a tiered cap structure.
This would get revenue Democrats desperately want, while also reducing burden on businesses that Republicans desperately want. Businesses would benefit, and the only cost would be to those making above the gap. Who Benefits?
The only losers in this proposal are those making more than the top gap, while not hiring enough employees to make up the difference. In Return In return for agreeing to this hike in revenues, Republicans could and should demand benefit cuts, a raise in retirement age, cuts in Medicare, or some other incentive. Means Testing Social Security was meant to be an insurance program for those unable to take cared of themselves after retirement. As such, should anyone with hundreds of thousands of dollars in annual interest income or millions of dollars in liquid assets collect social security payments after retirement? If not, those disbursements not paid out can also be used to reduce taxes on businesses or to increase survivor benefits. One of the blatant flaws in the system happens to married couples where one person dies leaving a spouse with only one check instead of two. When this happens, especially if both checks are small, the survivor is often placed in a situation where he or she can no longer afford their house and other expenses. It should be possible to rectify the above situation as part of Social Security restructuring. Pragmatism vs. Beliefs In general, I am against tax hikes. As a pragmatist, I believe tax hikes are coming regardless of whether or not they should. My proposal has the advantage of offering something to Republicans, something to Democrats, and a lot to businesses, only impacting those making more than the top cap (which of course should be inflation-adjusted). By the way, this line of thinking can be applied to things other than just social security. A portion of all tax hikes can go to reduced payroll tax burdens on businesses. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 11 Jan 2013 10:18 AM PST Bank of Japan to Adopt 2% Inflation Target Bloomberg reports Yen Falls to Lowest Since 2010 on Stimulus The yen reached the weakest since June 2010 versus the dollar after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government said it will spend 10.3 trillion yen ($116 billion) in new stimulus efforts that tend to weaken a currency.Yen Monthly Chart  click on chart for sharper image Where to From Here? From a technical standpoint, there is support at 1.10, at 1.05, and again at 1.00. Short-term, I would expect it to bounce at one of those levels, perhaps all three, as anti-yen sentiment is extreme. Bear in mind, the ultimate fate of the Yen depends on what Japan does, not what Japan says. Advocating a 2% inflation target and actually taking measures to achieve that target are two different things. From my perspective, prime minister Shinzo Abe seems determined to do just that. Moreover, there will be changes at the central bank, and you can expect those changes to be more dovish, weakening the Yen. The counterpoint is that the Japanese central bank has actually been far more conservative than the Fed, ECB, and the Central bank of China. Certainly, the Fed and ECB have pulled some pretty dramatic stunts, but speculation now is the Fed may be concerned about the growing size of its balance sheet. (For a discussion, please see Yield Curve: Where To From Here? Extreme Complacency in Face of Bernanke Shift). Japan is in serious trouble in regards to demographics and balance of trade issues. Here are a couple of posts that layout the case in detail. Coming Devaluation of the Yen
The counter-argument, proposed by my friend Pater Tenebrarum, is The Yen – What Everybody Knows Probably Isn't Worth Knowing. The question is: what does "everybody" know (or even believe)? I happen to believe Shinzo Abe is serious. Perhaps he isn't. Perhaps the Bank of Japan remains more sensible than Western-world counterparts. Again, I have my doubts. Any indication (even if incorrect), that Japan is talking but won't really act could send the Yen higher. Moreover, anti-yen sentiment is so extreme now, that there could be a short-term bounce for technical reasons, even if Japan follows through on its threats. Long-term, I see no reason to change my belief the Yen is in serious trouble. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com "Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish Click on Image to Learn More  |
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