Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• New York State Employment Situation in Graph Form
• Unlimited Bond Buying "With Strings"; Mario Draghi vs. Randall from Monsters Inc
• August Services ISM +53.7; All News Good News
• Attention JP Morgan Chase Customers and Credit Card Holders

New York State Employment Situation in Graph Form Posted: 06 Sep 2012 12:47 PM PDT With jobs data coming out tomorrow, let's take a look at the current situation in New York, the country's second most populous state. Here is a chart courtesy of Tim Wallace. New York State Employment Situation click on chart for sharper image The chart shows second quarter data from 2012 vs. prior years. In table form, New York employment looks like this. Year Covered Work Force Unemployed 2000 8,155,000 8,999,000 390,100 2001 8,515,000 8,929,000 364,200 2002 8,312,000 8,976,000 523,600 2003 8,251,000 9,344,000 550,600 2004 8,217,000 9,273,000 539,700 2005 8,304,000 9,380,000 443,400 2006 8,358,000 9,519,000 430,400 2007 8,460,000 9,424,000 395,900 2008 8,601,000 9,579,000 469,400 2009 8,557,000 9,757,000 782,500 2010 8,306,000 9,675,000 785,000 2011 8,369,000 9,547,000 745,300 2012 8,477,000 9,562,000 824,000 Wallace Writes ... Hi Mish Recently we have heard how great the city of New York is doing employment wise. Suffice it to say if the city of New York is doing so wonderfully, the rest of the state must be hurting for certain. The data you are going to see on these charts is the foundation for the quarterly covered report. As you are aware covered employees are those with unemployment benefits. A high percentage of  workers without benefits are self-employed. In this chart you will clearly see the impact of both the 2001/2 recession and the more recent recession. The black line is the total unemployed, not just those covered by insurance. For the past four years, New York State unemployment has remained well above the numbers leading into the recession, and in fact 45.8% on average higher than the 2001/2 recession impact. Thus, I cannot see where the "recovery" is. In fact, 2012 is the worst year in history for New York. The red line shows the New York Civilian Work Force, which as you can see has mostly historically trended up, until the Obama presidency. Since then the trend is downhill, with the workforce now back to levels of 2008, while unemployment is twice the level of 2008. Is this truly a "recovery" and "change" that you can live with? The blue line shows the number of people actually covered by the state level unemployment insurance. As those benefits ran out, covered employment crashed to a level actually below 2001. 2012 covered employee numbers are below the level in 200, in spite of a huge increase in population. Clearly there has been no recovery in benefits producing jobs. Tim Self-Employment Notes Self-employed are not covered by unemployment insurance. The "self-employed" group includes all of those selling trinkets on Ebay as a job as well as all of those "working" in their multi-level marketing "business". Others struggle as non-covered employees in family related businesses. Many of those jobs are not "real" and produce little or no income. However, these people are counted in the workforce if they respond to the BLS in the household survey that they "worked" any hours. Quick Stats 2001 vs. 2012 In 2001 there were 8,515,000 New Yorkers covered by unemployment benefits. Now there are 8,477,000. In the same time frame, the work force has grown from 8,929,000 to 9,562,000 while unemployment rose from 364,200 to 824,000. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Unlimited Bond Buying "With Strings"; Mario Draghi vs. Randall from Monsters Inc Posted: 06 Sep 2012 12:10 PM PDT This post inspired by reader Mark who suggested ECB president Mario Draghi looks likes like Randall from Monsters Inc. Inquiring minds seeking a humorous time-out from economic news might be interested, so here are some comparative images that I found. Meet Randall from Monsters Inc. Meet Mario Draghi, President of the ECB in a Randallian pose. Image from Bloomberg article Draghi Proposes 'Unlimited' Bond-Buying, With Strings Meet Mario Draghi, President of the ECB with a Randallian smile. Image from Hollywood Goodfella Addendum: One clever reader suggested Draghi looks more like Sesame Street Count von Count but noted the count was better at math. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

August Services ISM +53.7; All News Good News Posted: 06 Sep 2012 09:03 AM PDT The Non-Manufacturing ISM for August came in positive once again showing a clear divergence between manufacturing and services. Index August July Change Direction Rate of Change Trend in Months NMI™ 53.7 52.6 +1.1 Growing Faster 32 Business Activity 55.6 57.2 -1.6 Growing Slower 37 New Orders 53.7 54.3 -0.6 Growing Slower 37 Employment 53.8 49.3 +4.5 Growing From Contracting 1 Supplier Deliveries 51.5 49.5 +2.0 Slowing From Faster 1 Inventories 52.5 54.5 -2.0 Growing Slower 7 Prices 64.3 54.9 +9.4 Increasing Faster 2 Backlog of Orders 50.5 44.5 +6.0 Growing From Contracting 1 New Export Orders 52.0 51.0 +1.0 Growing Faster 2 Imports 49.5 44.5 +5.0 Contracting Slower 2 Inventory Sentiment 67.0 59.0 +8.0 Too High Faster 183 "The NMI™ registered 53.7 percent in August, 1.1 percentage points higher than the 52.6 percent registered in July. This indicates continued growth this month at a slighter faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 55.6 percent, which is 1.6 percentage points lower than the 57.2 percent reported in July, reflecting growth for the 37th consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased by 0.6 percentage point to 53.7 percent. The Employment Index increased by 4.5 percentage points to 53.8 percent, indicating growth in employment after one month of contraction. The Prices Index increased 9.4 percentage points to 64.3 percent, indicating substantially higher month-over-month prices when compared to July. According to the NMI™, 10 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in August. Respondents' comments continue to be mixed, and for the most part reflect uncertainty about business conditions and the economy." All News Good News? In light of the plunge in manufacturing (see Manufacturing ISM Contracts 3rd Month Led by Declining New Orders; Recession-Type Numbers? You Bet!), this is a relatively strong report. In response, the US dollar index is flat, but the stock market, crude, gold, and silver are all up. We also had good news (as well as expected news from the ECB today on bond purchases). Mario Draghi said the ECB will target government bonds with maturities of one to three years, including longer-dated debt that has a residual maturity of that length. Purchases will be fully sterilized, meaning the overall impact on the money supply will be neutral, and the ECB will not have seniority, he said.  Once again, all news seems to be good for the stock market. When the economic news is weak (which it has been for the most part), chatter of more QE holds the day. When the news is stronger than expected or the Fed or ECB toots their respective horns, we see action like this. This action will not last forever, but I cannot tell you when it will end. Friday's job report could be telling. These opening stock market gaps in either direction seem to fill quickly more often than not, and may do so tomorrow should the jobs report be weak. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Attention JP Morgan Chase Customers and Credit Card Holders Posted: 05 Sep 2012 11:37 PM PDT Attention JP Morgan Chase customers and those with Chase Credit cards. You have a splendid opportunity at zero cost to raise as much as $250,000 for the charity of your choice. All you have to do is login to your account online and vote for the charity of your choice. Voting is open only to Chase customers, and begins September 7. Chase customers who do not have a userid and password, can create one. Instructions how appear below. The charity of my choice is the Les Turner ALS foundation. Why Les Turner? In case you missed it my wife of 27 years, Joanne, passed away on May 16, 2012 from ALS, better known as Lou Gehrig's Disease. Here is my story: My Wife Joanne Has Passed Away; Stop and Smell the Lilacs. In July, I submitted the Les Turner ALS foundation to Chase Community Giving and it was approved. Mish Request I kindly ask those with Chase Credit Card or Chase accounts of any kind, to please login to your chase account and vote. Here is the link: Chase Community Giving You are looking for a button that looks like this. If you do not have online access, please click on the link to Set Up Online Access. Otherwise, login. Next you want to click on the Image to vote. The image looks like this: Then "Search Charities" as shown in the image below. As you start typing "Les Turner" a dropdown box will appear as shown below. Be sure to click on the dropdown box, not simply hit enter with only the words "Les Turner" appearing. The next image is the voting screen you are looking for. When you see the symbol below, please click on the Vote button. Facebook and Twitter users: After you vote please Click on "Like", Tweet, and Send to Facebook. The buttons are right on the Voting page as show below. Contest Rules The charity with the most votes will receive $250,000! The next 10 charities will receive $100,000 each. The next 35 charities will receive $50,000 each. There are 150 additional awards as per Contest Rules. My goal is to win one of the top 11 spots, hopefully the top spot. If you have more than one account, you can vote more than once, but you cannot vote for the same charity more than once. Thanks You vote will go to a very worthy cause. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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