Home Refinance Calculator: May 2011

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

China's Manufacturing Slowest in 9 Months, New Orders Suggest Manufacturing May Have Already Peaked; Australia Biggest GDP Drop in 20 Years
"The Longer you Wait the Higher the Haircut. Greece is not Even in the EU's Hands. Let this be a Warning to the U.S."
TV Censorship in China; Reflections on the Yuan as a Global Reserve Currency; Hype Sells
Hooray! Greece "Saved" Again; Can it Possibly Matter?

China's Manufacturing Slowest in 9 Months, New Orders Suggest Manufacturing May Have Already Peaked; Australia Biggest GDP Drop in 20 Years

Posted: 31 May 2011 10:11 PM PDT

Weak economic reports in the US, Europe, Australia, and China tell the same story: The global economy continues to cool.

MarketWatch reports China manufacturing growth slows further

The official China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing Managers' Index eased to 52.0 from 52.9 in April, marking the slowest pace of growth in nine months.

The result was below the median forecast of 52.2 in a Reuters survey of economists.

Meanwhile, a separate PMI published by HSBC and compiled by U.K. group Markit, showed headline activity at 51.6, easing from 51.8 in April, the slowest pace of growth in 10 months.

Analysts at Credit Suisse said that the Federation's PMI showed new orders declining at a faster pace than the slowdown in the overall reading, a sign that manufacturing activity may have already peaked in the current economic cycle.

"Actual economic activity may have cooled down faster than the headline suggests," said Credit Suisse analysts.

Australia Reports Biggest GDP Drop in 20 Years

The BBC reports Australian economy reports biggest fall in twenty years

Its economy contracted by 1.2% in the first three months of the year, compared with the previous quarter, the latest government figures showed.

The government said flooding and cyclones in resource rich states of Queensland and Western Australia had a significant impact on growth.

Australia's economy is heavily reliant on its resources sector.

"The economy has hit a temporary pothole courtesy of the natural disasters this year," said Besa Deda of St George Bank.

That temporary pothole is about to become a Grand Canyon led by declines in housing and retail spending.

Chicago Region Manufacturing Gauge Biggest Drop in 2.5 Years

Please consider Chicago manufacturing gauge nosedives

A Chicago-area manufacturing gauge dropped by the largest amount in nearly two-and-half years in May, in a further sign that the rise in oil prices and the Japanese earthquake have affected activity.

The Chicago PMI fell to a reading of 56.6% in May, the lowest reading since Nov. 2009, from 67.6% in April.

While that reading is still significantly above the 50-line indicating growth, the eleven-point drop is the biggest one-month deceleration since Oct. 2008 and was worst than the 60% reading that economists polled by MarketWatch anticipated.

Indexes for production, new orders and order backlogs each dropped by double digits. Inventories jumped, which in this case is more likely an indication of unplanned gains due to a lack of sales than stocking up in anticipation of better times ahead.

US Consumer Confidence Declines

Rounding out a torrent of bad news for the day, U.S. consumer confidence declines in May

The nonprofit Conference Board said its consumer-confidence index fell to 60.8 in May — the lowest reading in six months — from a revised 66 in April. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast an increase to 67.5.

Most economists were surprised by the decline. Some attributed the drop to the cost of gas, a downward spiral in housing prices, recent weakness in the economy, and even to a series of tornados and floods wracking parts of the U.S.

The expectations index, which measures the view of consumers six months out, fell to 75.2 from 83.2 last month. It's the lowest reading since last October.

The percentage of consumers who say jobs are plentiful increased to 5.6% from 5.1% in April, although the percentage who say they are hard to get also rose slightly to 43.9%.

The consumer-confidence index remains low by historical standards. In a healthy economy, the index averages about 95 points.

In a healthy economy the index averages 95. Currently it sits at 60.8.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

"The Longer you Wait the Higher the Haircut. Greece is not Even in the EU's Hands. Let this be a Warning to the U.S."

Posted: 31 May 2011 06:19 PM PDT

In the video below, Terrence Keeley at Sovereign Trends LLC discusses Greek restructuring, why Germany backed down on restructuring, and what it ultimately means. The video is outstanding, please play it.

If the video does not play here is the Bloomberg link Sovereign Trends' Keeley Interview

Terrence Keeley, senior managing principal at Sovereign Trends LLC and a Bloomberg Television contributing editor, discusses the outlook for additional aid to Greece from the European Union. EU officials will decide on more aid by the end of June and have ruled out a "total restructuring" of the nation's debt, said Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the group of euro-area finance ministers. Keeley speaks with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack."

Key Quotes

The Longer you wait the higher the haircut.
Germany backed off over bank threats, Europe is ill-prepared for restructuring.
A lot of people talk about getting Greece back on its feet. The truth of the matter is Greece has not been on its feet for several millennium
40% of Greek GDP is government workers. Until that problem is fixed there is no solution for Greece's economy.
The reality is Greece is a goner, Ireland is very, very tough and Portugal is the same. We could have more.
Keeping the Brady Plan in your back pocket is a very good idea.
Everyone is clapping their hands this morning but Greek CDS imply a 70% chance of default. The market expects Greece to default, and the market is right
This is not even in the EU's hands.
Let this be a warning to the United states. The US can still control its situation, Greece cannot.

I agree with everything Terrence Keeley said in the interview.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

TV Censorship in China; Reflections on the Yuan as a Global Reserve Currency; Hype Sells

Posted: 31 May 2011 09:14 AM PDT

An interesting article in the Financial Times got me thinking once again about the popular notion that the Yuan is about to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.

Please consider a couple brief snips from Beijing in fresh TV censorship move

The Chinese government has stepped up censorship of local television in a sign of the broadening of a political crackdown that has landed many dissidents in jail.

China has severely clamped down on activists since February when an anonymous online appeal called for demonstrations along the lines of the "jasmine revolution" sweeping north Africa and the Middle East.

Authorities have detained scores of human rights lawyers, activists, and writers. They have also arrested Ai Weiwei, the contemporary artist.

Reserve Currency Requirements

So what does this political crackdown say about the likelihood that the Yuan will soon replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency? First consider what it takes to be the world's reserve currency.

Deep, liquid, open bond markets
Floating currency
Property rights, civil rights
Political stability
Political freedom

China flunks on at least 4 of 5 points, and arguably all 5. It may be a decade before China even floats the Yuan. How long before China has a deep, liquid, bond market? You tell me, because I don't know, but I assure you it is not in the next three years.

For further discussion please see Bogus Threats to US Reserve Currency Status: No Country Really Wants It!

Yet somehow hyperinflationists persist in spreading nonsense that the Yuan is somehow on the verge of replacing the dollar as a global reserve currency and that may cause hyperinflation.

There certainly may be more local trading in the Yuan. In fact, it is likely. That does not imply the death of the dollar or the loss of reserve currency status and it certainly does not portend hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation is the complete loss of faith in a currency. Should that happen to the US, the entire global banking system blows up. Global trade blows ups. If China refuses US dollars, then China's exports to the US stop, overnight. So do Japan's.

So what does that do to the economies of Japan and China? What would that do to the economies of Canada and Australia? Think about Chinese and Japanese exports and the demand for commodities.

Whether they realize it or not, that is the story hyperinflationists peddle. It simply is not a credible story as noted in Hyperinflation Nonsense.

Hype Sells

No Virginia, the US Dollar is Not Headed to Zero any time soon. Might the dollar slowly decay over decades? Sure why not? It already has. However, that is not hyperinflation.

Yes, the US has problems, so does Japan, so does China, so does the Euro-Zone, and so does the UK. Indeed global currency problems and insolvent banks are everywhere one looks.

However, myopic eyes are primarily focused on the US. Here's the deal. The US dollar is not suddenly going to zero vs. the Pound, the Yen, the Yuan, or the Euro, yet that is what hyperinflation implies.

Why is the "hyperinflation is imminent" scare everywhere you look? The answer is simple: Hype Sells.

The bigger the hype, the sexier the story, and the more people are attracted by it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Hooray! Greece "Saved" Again; Can it Possibly Matter?

Posted: 31 May 2011 08:19 AM PDT

The overnight markets were all giddy about the notion that Greece will be saved for the umpteenth time. I have a set of questions: How can it possibly matter?

What about Ireland?
What about Portugal?
What happens when Spain needs a bailout?
What happens if the markets lose confidence in Italian debt?

Further problems in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy are all highly likely, and the first three are a given. So does, it matter that Greece is saved?

By the way, IS Greece saved? How many times can a country be saved?

In case you missed it on this long holiday weekend, please consider Europe at the Abyss; US Housing in the Abyss; Who is to Blame? for a look at structural problems facing Europe and the US and who is to blame for them.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mortgage and Loans - Mortgage Refinance, Home Loans

Bold Retirement Benefits – the SEP IRA Contribution
Democrats kill school finance bill
Mortgage market and interest rate update for Thursday, February 5, 2009
In Tha Muthahood
Sue Lawrence – Mortgage Fraud Victim

Bold Retirement Benefits – the SEP IRA Contribution

Posted: 31 May 2011 04:22 AM PDT

The SEP IRA contribution cap is generous, and just one of the rewards of this plan that has been specifically structured to favor the self-employed person and small businesses . For those lacking the resources to opt for a more conventional retirement plan, the SEP is extremely attractive because of the low administration costs and simplicity of establishing the account . For small businesses , qualifying employees iseasy and straightforward. The employee must be at least 21 years old, have worked for the employer for three of the past five years, and received at least $550 in compensation. If you are an employee participating in your employer’s plan, your SEP IRA contribution can be 25% of your wages. The employer will make the determination on the percentage and is not locked in to either amount or frequency for the SEP IRA contribution. The employer can decide on the amount annually , or even choose no contribution at all. Many employers will base this percentage decision on the net profit of the business or as a reflection of current economic conditions and their impact on the business. If you are self-employed, you don’t have wages. Rather you have net profits from your business enterprise. Self-employed individuals can make a SEP IRA contribution of 20% of net profits up to $44,000 per year . Net profits for a SEP account are calculated by taking the net self-employment income and subtracting one-half of the self-employment taxes. The resulting net-net self-employment income is then multiplied by 20% to come to the SEP IRA contribution amount. You have until your final tax filing deadline, including extensions, to contribute to your SEP for last year, but you do have to fund your SEP before you file your tax return. The generous limits on a SEP IRA contribution, for both the self-employed and the small company , definitely is an advantage to those who need to rapidly prepare for their retirement security.

Democrats kill school finance bill

Posted: 30 May 2011 07:12 PM PDT

With only hours left in the session, lawmakers have killed two bills crucial to a balanced budget.

Mortgage market and interest rate update for Thursday, February 5, 2009

Posted: 30 May 2011 02:58 PM PDT

Mortgage market and interest rate update from Bruce Brown, CMPS with First Security Mortgage and radio host of Dollars and Homes on KCMO Talk Radio 710 in Kansas City.

In Tha Muthahood

Posted: 30 May 2011 02:23 PM PDT

Sue Lawrence – Mortgage Fraud Victim

Posted: 30 May 2011 12:01 PM PDT

From CBC Newsworld, Wednesday December 13, 2006. Susan Lawrence of Toronto had owned her century-old Victorian house for the past 30 years. An identity thief stole the title to her home and mortgaged it to Maple Trust for almost 0000. Maple Trust, even after finding out that the mortgage was fraudulently obtained, tried to evict Sue but only gave up when subjected to the ensuing disastrous publicity….

Monday, May 30, 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Retail Sales Plunge in Italy, Dip Elsewhere in Euro-Zone
Europe at the Abyss; US Housing in the Abyss; Who is to Blame?
Morocco: Antigovernment protesters clash with police; Kuwait: 2,000 rally to demand resignation of embattled prime minister

Retail Sales Plunge in Italy, Dip Elsewhere in Euro-Zone

Posted: 30 May 2011 08:23 PM PDT

Things are about to get very interesting in Italy where consumers have gone a sudden spending hiatus. Bloomberg reports European Retail Sales Contract to 7-Month Low

European retail sales contracted in May to the lowest level since October 2010, driven by a "sharp drop" in Italy, Markit Economics said.

A gauge of euro-area retail sales fell to 48.8 from 52.2 in April, London-based Markit Economics said today in a statement. The index is based on a survey of more than 1,000 executives and a reading above 50 indicates month-on-month expansion.

Italian retail sales declined at the fastest pace in 11 months in May, while monthly increases in Germany and France, the euro area's largest economies, were the weakest in seven and three months, respectively, Markit said.

Eurozone retail sales fell in May

Please consider Eurozone retail sales fell in May

Retail sales in the Eurozone fell for the first time in three months in May, according to Markit's latest PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) survey. Moreover, sales were only marginally higher than one year earlier, and retailers cut both staff levels and purchasing during the month. Of the three largest euro economies covered, Italy remained the main source of weakness, while France and Germany both registered slower growth.

Across the Eurozone as a whole, retail sales were up only slightly on a year earlier in May. This was in contrast to the trend seen in April, when retail sales grew at the fastest annual pace in nearly three years (although this partly reflected the timing of Easter in 2011 compared to 2010).

In line with the pattern for month-on-month sales trends, Germany and France registered slower annual growth of retail sales in May while Italy posted a steep fall.

In a further sign that the retail sector was contracting, the value of goods purchased by retailers fell during the month. This was the first drop in purchasing activity for seven months.

Moreover, it occurred despite a further sharp rise in average wholesale prices, suggesting a steep fall in the volume of new items bought for resale. Purchase price inflation eased slightly since April, but remained relatively sharp.

Reflecting intense cost pressures and declining sales values, retailers suffered the worst drop in gross margins for a year in May. This contributed to a decline in headcounts in the sector, the first since last November.

Retail Sales by Country

That is one hell of a drop for Italy.

Note how poorly Italy fared in the 2008-2009 recession compared to France and Germany. Unless this is an outlier, Italy is headed for recession. Is the ECB prepared for that? Are the bond markets?

Italy 10-Year Government Bonds

If Italian government bonds break North of that range, not led by a general rise across the Euro-Zone, especially Germany, then kiss contagion-containment goodbye.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Europe at the Abyss; US Housing in the Abyss; Who is to Blame?

Posted: 30 May 2011 10:23 AM PDT

Robert Samuelson on Real Clear Politics says Europe at the Abyss

It has come to this. A year after rescuing Greece from default, Europe is staring into the abyss. The bailout has proved insufficient. Greece needs more money, and it can't borrow from private markets where it faces interest rates as high as 25 percent. There is no easy escape.

What's called a "debt crisis" is increasingly a political and social crisis. Already, unemployment is 14.1 percent in Greece, 14.7 percent in Ireland, 11.1 percent in Portugal and 20.7 percent in Spain.

Some causes of Europe's plight are well-known: the harsh recession following the 2008-2009 financial crisis; aging populations coupled with costly welfare states. But there's also another less recognized culprit: the euro, the single currency now used by 17 countries.

Launched in 1999, it aimed to foster economic and political unity. For a while, it seemed to succeed. In the euro's first decade, jobs in countries using the common currency increased by 16 million.

It was a mirage. For starters, the euro fostered a credit bubble that led to booms in housing, borrowing and consumer spending. But one policy didn't fit all: Interest rates suited to Germany and France were too low for "periphery" countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain).

Money poured into the periphery countries. There was a huge compression of interest rates. In 1997, rates on 10-year Greek government bonds averaged 9.8 percent compared to 5.7 percent for similar German bonds. By 2003, Greek bonds fetched 4.3 percent, just above the 4.1 percent of German bonds.

"The markets failed. All this would not have occurred if banks in Germany and France had not lent so much," says economist Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute. "It was like the U.S. housing market." Both American and European banks went overboard in relaxing credit standards.

"Markets Failed" Says Desmond Lachman

Few economic statement make my hair stand straight up more than that bit of complete nonsense from Lachman. The markets did not fail. Bureaucrats who dreamed up the Euro failed.

Those bureaucrats devised a currency union with nothing more than suggestions on fiscal controls. Making matters far worse, countries in the Euro-Zone have widely differing political philosophies and policies.

That currency union was not brought about by the market. The free market would never have done such a silly thing.

Every major currency union in history without a political and fiscal union has failed. There is a nice Table of Monetary Unions on the site Euro Know that shows just that.

Bureaucrats, not the free market knew better. Bureaucrats, not the free market failed.

Not Different This Time

Potential problem were recognized well in advance by many. In February 1995 The Independent wrote a misguided editorial Why we say Yes to a single currency.

The rationale of The Independent was "It's different this time".

The economic arguments that, on balance, Britain will be better off inside the currency union than outside are persuasive. The discipline of a permanently fixed exchange rate would significantly reduce the risk of a return to high inflation and create greater certainty for companies and investors. There would also be lower transaction costs. There is no doubt that a successful single currency would strengthen Europe's position on the global economic stage.

The opponents of the single currency do not agree. They argue that the experience of the ERM and events since Black Wednesday show that to be locked into a single currency is damaging. Exchange rates, they point out, can act as important "shock absorbers" in times of unexpected crisis. These are powerful arguments. They are most powerful when applied to some EU members - notably Spain, Portugal and Greece - whose less developed economies would make the exigencies of a single currency regime punishing, unpopular and potentially disastrous.

But this is not the condition of Britain today. In 1992 the needs of the British economy were at odds with the priorities of the Bundesbank. They were trying to control inflation, we needed to get out of recession. By contrast, in 1999 six or seven countries will find themselves at the same stage in the cycle, with very similar economic priorities. So things are likely to be different.

Points of Failure Predicted In Advance

Things were not different were they?

Ironically, in that 1995 article, The Independent pointed out the exact points of failure: Spain, Portugal and Greece.

Tony Dolphin, Chief Economist of AMP Asset Management, wrote a response to that article less than a week later. Please consider, European monetary union: the benefits, the problems and the traveller's tale

The potential benefits of European monetary union are questionable, the potential costs could be very serious. A successful monetary union requires that the economies joining it are broadly the same, especially in regard to their response to external and internal inflation shocks. This is not the case in Europe. Take two examples: oil and housing.

The effect of a sustained, steep rise in the oil price will be very different in Germany, which is highly dependent on imported oil and gas; in France, where nuclear power is used to generate a high proportion of energy needs; and in the UK, where the North Sea sector of the economy would actually benefit. Imagine trying to set an appropriate, anti-inflationary interest rate policy for a monetary union including these three economies should the oil price double.

The housing sectors of European economies also differ, with the UK's high level of home ownership financed by variable rate mortgages not being found elsewhere. It is easy to envisage a situation where the interest rate policy of a European monetary union was entirely inappropriate for the housing sector of the UK economy.

These and other structural differences between European economies will not disappear over the next four years, nor at any time in the foreseeable future. Until they do, the economic argument against European monetary union is powerful, and far more clear cut than the political arguments for or against.

Yours faithfully,
Tony Dolphin
Chief Economist
AMP Asset Management

Failure of the "One Size Fits Germany Policy"

I have no idea what Tony Dolphin is doing today but put him in the class of those who can say "I told you so." Here is the key paragraph:

"It is easy to envisage a situation where the interest rate policy of a European monetary union was entirely inappropriate for the housing sector of the UK economy."

The UK did not adopt the Euro but Spain did. Interest rates in Germany were not appropriate for Spain. The result was a Spanish housing bubble of epic proportion that has now collapsed.

One interest rate policy simply does not work. For further discussion, please see ECB's "One Size Fits Germany" Policy; Rate Hikes to Stress PIIGS

Compounding Spain's misery, Trichet has embarked on a rate-hiking campaign at the worst possible time, with Spanish unemployment in excess of 20%, and youth unemployment near 40%.

Housing Market Nonsense

Note that Lachman also blames US banks for the housing bubble.

"It was like the U.S. housing market." Both American and European banks went overboard in relaxing credit standards.

That too is nonsense in that it does not place the blame where it belongs, on the Fed. The Fed held interest rates too low, too long. Money was too loose, banks lent.

Blaming banks for lending when real interest rates are hugely negative is tantamount to placing a bottle of vodka in front of an alcoholic, telling the alcoholic it is the best vodka in the whole world, then blaming the alcoholic for what happens next.

Fed is the Problem

Not only did the Fed hold interest rates too low, too long, the Greenspan Fed endorsed derivatives, subprime loans, and adjustable rate mortgages. Meanwhile Bush was praising the "Ownership Society" and Barney Frank was in the back pocket of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Ben Bernanke was totally clueless, in complete denial about the bubble, going so far as to say home prices were "based on fundamentals".

None what has transpired has had remotely anything to do with the failure of the free markets. We have a failure of regulation, not a failure to regulate. Lachman, like Bernanke, really needs to get a clue.

You cannot fix a problem until you understand what the problem is. Unfortunately, politicians and economists in both the US and Europe are still in denial. Statements by those blaming markets instead of politicians and the Fed, do not help.

Addendum:

The biggest failure of regulation was the very creation of the the Fed. That should be be obvious but the sad state of affairs in regards to economic understanding says I need to spell it out.

Those screaming about the free market need to answer this question: Could the free market possibly have done any worse the serial bubble-blowing moral-hazard policies of the Fed?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Morocco: Antigovernment protesters clash with police; Kuwait: 2,000 rally to demand resignation of embattled prime minister

Posted: 30 May 2011 08:24 AM PDT

Here is a pair of stories from the Los Angeles Times regarding still more protests. This time in Morocco and Kuwait.

Morocco

Antigovernment protesters clash with police

Thousands of demonstrators Sunday took to the streets of Casablanca, the country's largest city, in an antigovernment protest police struggled to disperse, driving into the crowd on motorcycles, armed with clubs.

A similar protest in the capital's twin city of Sale on Sunday also was violently disrupted, as was a demonstration in front of the Moroccan parliament Saturday.

Protesters in Casablanca

Moroccan Police Battle Crowds

The LA Times credits the videos to well-known blogger named "Mamfakinch" (which roughly translates as "We won't give up").

Kuwait

2,000 rally to demand resignation of embattled prime minister

Pressure is building on Kuwait's embattled Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Mohammad Ahmad Sabah, who has come under fire for refusing to be questioned in parliament for allegedly misusing public funds, among other accusations.

Around 2,000 people took to the streets of the oil-rich gulf country's capital amid tight security, chanting, "The people want to topple the head [of government]," in reference to Sheikh Nasser, according to [news agency] Agence-France Presse.

The 71-year-old Sheikh Nasser's five years as premier have been marked by turbulence and he has come under constant fire by the opposition. He has resigned six times, and he formed his seventh Cabinet a couple of weeks ago.

Kuwaiti protesters are reportedly staging new rallies next Friday that they have dubbed "Day of Departure."

Much of the world is simmering from high unemployment, corruption, rising food prices, and austerity programs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mortgage and Loans - Mortgage Refinance, Home Loans

Buying a Home in Athens, GA
What is the best individual insurance for a pregnant woman?
Farmers Insurance/X-Men: First Class — X-Change Student: University of Farmers
Home Finances – Quicken Loans

Buying a Home in Athens, GA

Posted: 29 May 2011 10:04 PM PDT

Athens officially became a town in December 1806 with a government made up of a three-member commission. The university continued to increase , as did the town, with cotton mills propelling the industrial and commercial development. Athens became known as the “Manchester of the South” after the city in England known for its mills. In 1833 a group of Athens businessmen compelled by James Camak, grew weary of their wagons getting stuck in the mud, built one of Georgia’s first railroads, the Georgia, connecting Athens to Augusta by 1841, and to Marthasville (now Atlanta) by 1845.

During the time of the American Civil War, Athens became a significant supply center when the New Orleans armory was moved to what is now the called the Chicopee building. Fortifications can still be found along parts of the North Oconee River between College and Oconee St. In addition, Athens played a small part in the ill-fated Stoneman Raid when a skirmish was fought on a site overlooking the Middle Oconee River near what is now the old Macon Highway. Like so many southern towns, Athens still hosts a confederate memorial that is located on Broad St, near the University of Georgia Arch.

During Reconstruction, Athens continued to grow. The form of government changed to a mayor-council government with a new city charter on August 24, 1872 with Captain Henry Beusse as the first mayor of Athens. Henry Beusse wasfundamental in the rapid growth of the city after the Civil War. After holding the position of mayor he assumed work in the railroad industry and helped to bring railroads to the region creating growth in many of the surrounding communities. Freed slaves moved to the city, many attracted by the new centers for education such as the Freedman’s Bureau. This new population was served by three black newspapers – the Athens Blade, the Athens Clipper , and the Progressive Era.

In the 1880s as Athens became more densely populated city services and improvements were undertaken. The Athens Police Department was founded in 1881 and public schools opened in fall of 1886. Telephone service was introduced in 1882 by the Bell Telephone Company. Transportation improvements were also introduced with a street paving program beginning in 1885 and streetcars, pulled by mules, in 1888.

Free Relocation Packages for Athens, GA

What is the best individual insurance for a pregnant woman?

Posted: 29 May 2011 05:04 PM PDT

I just found out i am 5 weeks pregnant and dont currently have insurance. My husbands works and his employer offers insurance for the family for 0.00/mo, which is completely ridiculous and not affordable for us right now. I stay at home with my daughter in Missouri, but we are having a hard time getting medicaid. Any advice. Thanks…

Farmers Insurance/X-Men: First Class — X-Change Student: University of Farmers

Posted: 29 May 2011 12:05 PM PDT

Professor Nathaniel Burke and America’s finest agents are joined by an exchange student from the X-Men school.

Home Finances – Quicken Loans

Posted: 29 May 2011 12:05 PM PDT

Hi, I’m Chris Klau and I’m a director here at Quicken Loans. Often times we get the question from clients “How often should I look at my home finances?” And while there’s no specific rule for every situation, you generally want to look at your finances every 6 to 12 months. That way you can make sure that you’re always managing two things that are always changing. Number one is your life – that’s always changing, new life events are always happening so we want to make sure you’re managing your mortgage around the changes in your life. The other thing that’s always changing is the mortgage market and the guidelines that mortgages are based on. So you want to make sure that you’re always connecting the changes in your life with the changes in the market to make sure you’re taking advantage of all the opportunities that are out there to put yourself in a better position. So definiately make sure you’re checking in as often as possible, there’s never a time where you can check in too much, and if you have any other questions, give us a call today.

Sunday, May 29, 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Panic Capital Flight in Greece, Depositors Yank 1.5 Billion Euros in 2 Days;EU Wants Severe Bail-Out Conditions Including International Tax Collection
Who's the Bigger Socialist, President Obama or the Socialist Prime Ministers from Greece and Spain?
French President Says Bondholders Must Share Greek Pain; Greece Mulls Setting up Bad Bank; Lagarde Says Greece Needs "Support" Not Restructuring
Yemen Coastal Town Falls to Al Qaeda

Panic Capital Flight in Greece, Depositors Yank 1.5 Billion Euros in 2 Days;EU Wants Severe Bail-Out Conditions Including International Tax Collection

Posted: 29 May 2011 11:18 PM PDT

Courtesy of Google translate please consider They lifted 1.5 billion Thursday and Friday from banks

Only a few steps separating from Friday to yesterday's mass panic! From early morning to counter the banks there is serious pressure for withdrawals of deposits, especially small amounts. The pressure on banks began last Wednesday, culminating in yesterday's day.

It is significant that Thursday and Friday, banking sources estimate that rose around 1.5 billion euros in total! According to the same month in May estimated the outflow estimated at least 4 billion from 2 billion in April.

The majority of depositors rushed to withdraw for pensioners and small savers and amounts ranging from 2-3000 lifted until 10 -15 000 euros. Motivation in most cases it was the fear that led the country into bankruptcy, deposits frozen even temporarily left without cash, or even lose their savings.

Politicians do not seem to fully understand the risks posed by a widespread panic, not only for the stability of the banking system but for the economy and the country.

EU Requests Severe Bail-Out Conditions Including International Tax Collection

The Financial Times reports Greece set for severe bail-out conditions

European leaders are negotiating a deal that would lead to unprecedented outside intervention in the Greek economy, including international involvement in tax collection and privatisation of state assets, in exchange for new bail-out loans for Athens.

People involved in the talks said the package would also include incentives for private holders of Greek debt voluntarily to extend Athens' repayment schedule, as well as another round of austerity measures.

Officials warned, however, that almost every element of the new package faced significant opposition from at least one of the governments and institutions involved in the current negotiations and a deal could still unravel.

In the latest setback, the Greek government failed on Friday to win cross-party agreement on the new austerity measures, which European Union lenders have insisted is a prerequisite to another bail-out.

Officials think Greece will be unable to return to the financial markets to raise money on its own in March – as originally planned in the current €110bn package – meaning that the IMF is now forbidden from distributing any additional cash. Without the IMF funds, eurozone governments would either be forced to fill the gap or Athens could default.

30,000 Protest in Greece

Courtesy of Google Translate More than 30,000 Greeks in Athens take center inspired by the protests of Spain

Some 30,000 people, police said, more as protesters have gone to the streets Sunday in Athens to protest the Greek political class. The demonstration has been called through social networks, as well as in Spain, and the participants cited the movement as a reference 15M.

"We've had enough. The politicians are laughing at us. If things continue like this, our future will be very hard," said one of demonstrators gathered outside the headquarters of the Greek Parliament in Syntagma Square, while his teammates chanted "Thieves, thieves!".

This is the fifth day of protests in Syntagma Square and this time they have been joined by a Spanish group who wanted to express solidarity with the merger.

"People were outraged, but needed motivation to express themselves. The Spanish have given us that motivation," said Argyrou Iphigenia, an insurance agent, told Reuters. "We're not asleep. We are awake. The IMF must go. There are solutions without them," he argued.

Is it any wonder people are yanking money out of Greek banks? How long before a bank freeze?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Who's the Bigger Socialist, President Obama or the Socialist Prime Ministers from Greece and Spain?

Posted: 29 May 2011 08:49 PM PDT

Courtesy of Google Translate More than 30,000 Greeks in Athens take center inspired by the protests of Spain

Some 30,000 people, police said, more as protesters have gone to the streets Sunday in Athens to protest the Greek political class. The demonstration has been called through social networks, as well as in Spain, and the participants cited the movement as a reference 15M.

"We've had enough. The politicians are laughing at us. If things continue like this, our future will be very hard," said one of demonstrators gathered outside the headquarters of the Greek Parliament in Syntagma Square, while his teammates chanted "Thieves, thieves!".

This is the fifth day of protests in Syntagma Square and this time they have been joined by a Spanish group who wanted to express solidarity with the merger.

"People were outraged, but needed motivation to express themselves. The Spanish have given us that motivation," said Argyrou Iphigenia, an insurance agent, told Reuters. "We're not asleep. We are awake. The IMF must go. There are solutions without them," he argued.

The above link thanks to Bran who lives in Spain. Bran has been sending me links every day for a year. Here is the original link in Spanish: Más de 30.000 griegos toman el centro de Atenas inspirados por las protestas de España

Socialist PMs Selling State Owned Assets, Committed to Anti-Union Reforms

The most amazing thing to me is how socialists in Spain and Greece are committed to selling off state owned assets and property while embarking on a path of reform that is 180 degrees removed from socialism.

Reform is much needed of course but unions protest every step of the way, just as has happened in the US, notably Madison, Wisconsin.

As it sits now, President Obama is a far bigger socialist in practice than either the Prime Minister of Greece, George Papandreou (representing the Panhellenic Socialist Movement party) or José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, the Prime Minister of Spain (representing the Spanish Socialist Workers Party).

The issue in Europe is whether everything blows sky high before reform takes hold. Given the payback from reform is measured in years, not months, the bond market continues to bet on default.

At the moment, socialist Prime Ministers in Greece and Spain are committed to reform. In the US, president Obama remains committed to the socialist policies that destroyed Greece and Spain.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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French President Says Bondholders Must Share Greek Pain; Greece Mulls Setting up Bad Bank; Lagarde Says Greece Needs "Support" Not Restructuring

Posted: 29 May 2011 11:28 AM PDT

Christine Lagarde, French finance minister, fully cements her appointment as next IMF Chief, toes the previous IMF line with a nonsensical statement: Greece Needs 'Support' Instead of Debt Restructuring

Christine Lagarde, French finance minister and a candidate to head the International Monetary Fund, said Greece needs "support" and its debt shouldn't be restructured.

"It's essential that we retain a balance," Lagarde said today on Europe 1 radio. "Greece has made significant efforts and we have to support those efforts," she said.

Soft Default

Support, Reprofiling, soft restructuring, and restructuring all mean the same thing: default. As long as everyone is tossing out words to hide the obvious, the words "soft default" have still not been claimed.

Der Speigel Claims Greece Missed All Financial Targets

Via Google translate, please consider EU threatens Greece with funding freeze

Hamburg - It is a clear warning to the Greek government: Because of the lack of pace of reform, the European Union, the payment of the next loan tranche to Greece in question.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is considering the words of Prime Minister of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker , the planned transfer to refuse June. "Over the next installment we will decide according to the report of the troika," said Rehn, adding: ". The situation is very serious"

The team of experts from the European Central Bank , IMF and EU Commission, the economic and fiscal condition of Greece examined the will, according to information obtained by SPIEGEL, in its quarterly report on an alarming finding: Greece miss all agreed fiscal targets

For those who can read German, here is the original link: EU droht Griechenland mit Zahlungsstopp

IMF Denies Greece Missed Targets

The IMF and Greek Finance Minister responded to Der Speigel report with Talks Continuing, Targets Not Missed

Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said talks with European Union and International Monetary Fund officials in Athens were still under way, denying reports the team had said Greece has missed its targets.

"The talks are continuing and will wind up in the next few days," Papaconstantinou said in a phone interview with Greece's Mega TV channel. "I have every reason to believe they will end positively for our country and that we will receive the fifth tranche."

Papaconstantinou spoke to Mega after the TV channel reported unnamed IMF sources as saying the country had missed targets in a review under way under the 110 billion-euro ($157 billion) EU-led bailout. Greece is subject to quarterly reviews by a team of officials from the EU, IMF and European Central Bank before each payment of loans under the bailout.

The minister said Mega's report and another cited by Mega in German magazine Der Spiegel were inaccurate as the inspection hadn't finished and no report had been written.

Greece Mulls Setting Up "Bad Bank"

Not that it will accomplish anything useful in regards to avoiding default, MSNBC reports Greece mulls setting up Spanish-style "bad bank"

Greece is considering setting up a Spanish-style "bad bank" to clean up its lenders' accounts from "toxic" Greek bonds and make them more attractive to potential buyers, a Greek paper reported on Sunday.

A 'bad bank', formed to hold risky assets owned by a state guaranteed bank, could be set up to absorb the risky Greek bonds held by state-controlled lenders slated for privatization, such as the Savings Post Bank, To Vima said.

"With problematic, Spanish savings banks (cajas) as a model, the finance ministry is examining proposals to implement the idea in the country," it said, without citing any sources.

Spain's Bankia, created from the merger of seven cajas, said last month it would create such a unit in a bid to attract investors ahead of a stock market listing.

Greek banks are believed to hold roughly 50 billion euros of Greece's outstanding sovereign bonds. The bonds have lost much of their nominal value in the wake of the Greek debt crisis, while a possible Greek debt restructuring could mean additional losses for the lenders.

Bondholders Must Share Greek Pain

Interestingly, French President Nicolas Sarkozy is now at odds with his finance minister, Christine Lagarde, over the need to restructure.

The Independent reports Bondholders must share Greek pain, says Sarkozy

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said bondholders need to share the burden of solving Greece's fiscal woes, following leaders in Germany and Luxembourg in raising the prospect of restructuring Greek debt.

Mr Sarkozy called for a "formula" involving investors, adding to talk that Europe might engineer an extension of Greece's debt-repayment schedule or press bondholders to buy new bonds as old ones mature.

"Restructuring is a poorly used word," Mr Sarkozy told reporters yesterday after a G8 summit in Deauville, France. "If it means that we can think of ways for the private sector, private operators, to take on a share of the burden, it's not restructuring at all; then there are formulas, there is no problem, and we should then converge in that direction."

Greek 10-year bonds trade at less than 55c on the euro, a sign of investors' diminishing expectations of being repaid in full.

Greek leaders meeting in Athens last night failed to agree on Prime Minister George Papandreou's new austerity plan. Conservative leader Antonis Samaras rejected the measures, saying they would "flatten the Greek economy and destroy Greek society".

In his first comments on a potential Greek restructuring, Mr Sarkozy gave no timeline for talks on pushing bondholders to take losses in Greece. A planned permanent European rescue fund would mandate some form of "private sector involvement" as of mid-2013.

No Problem?

Excuse me, but all three rating agencies said that any extension of Greek debt would be considered a default and trigger CDS contracts.

Back of Irish Government Will Crack

Think this crisis can be postponed to mid-2013? Including Ireland and Portugal?

I don't nor does Nouriel Roubini. The article continues ...

For now, economists including Nouriel Roubini estimate that Greece has a financing hole of about €60bn over the next two years.

Meanwhile, Ireland may be plunged into a "disastrous" sovereign debt crisis within three years as the cost of rescuing its banks mounts, Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the global financial crisis, said.

"Eventually the back of the government is going to crack" by "taking all the huge losses of the banking system," said Mr Roubini at a conference in Budapest yesterday.

The approach will "lead us with almost near certainty to a sovereign debt crisis in Ireland in a matter of two or three years".

"Eventually we're going to have a sovereign debt crisis that's going to be disastrous for Ireland and for the eurozone," Mr Roubini said.

Eventually will arrive sooner, rather than later.

Indeed, I would not be surprised if this crisis blew sky high within weeks or even days. That said, perhaps there is one more rabbit in the hat. There always seems to be.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Yemen Coastal Town Falls to Al Qaeda

Posted: 29 May 2011 10:20 AM PDT

The New York Times reports Militant Group Tightens Grip on Coastal Town in Yemen

An Al Qaeda group tightened its grip on a Yemeni coastal town on Sunday while a truce was holding in the capital city of Sana after nearly a week of deadly street fighting.

Opposition leaders claimed that President Ali Abdullah Saleh had allowed the city of Zinjibar, on the Gulf of Aden, to fall to the militants in order to raise alarm in the region that would in turn translate to support for the president.

Armed men believed to be from Al Qaeda appeared to have full control of Zinjibar, in the province of Abyan.

Also on Sunday, a breakaway military group called for other army units to join them in the fight to bring down President Ali Abdullah Saleh, piling pressure on him to end his three-decade rule.

"Security withdrew and left the city of Zinjibar to armed Islamic elements that looted government institutions," Ali Dahams, a leftist opposition official in Abyan province, said. Opposition groups have said they could do a better job of containing al Qaeda than the president.

In Sana, pedestrians and cars returned to streets where pitched battles during nearly a week of fighting killed at least 115 people.

The latest violence, pitting Mr. Saleh's forces against members of the powerful Hashed tribe led by Sadeq al-Ahmar, was the bloodiest since pro-democracy unrest erupted in January and was sparked by Mr. Saleh's refusal to sign a power transfer deal.

Forces loyal to Mr. Ahmar handed back control of a government building to mediators as part of the cease-fire deal, witnesses said. It was the first building seized by the tribesmen that was handed back as part of the truce intended to normalize life in Sana, where fighting with machine-guns, rocket-propelled grenades and mortars prompted thousands of residents to flee.

For years the US openly supported the corrupt regime in Yemen. What did it get us? Now Yemen is in financial and moral ruin and an alleged Al Qaeda group holds a city on the Gulf of Aden.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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