Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• About that Trade Deficit "Improvement"
• Second Quarter GDP Estimate Gets Lift from Reduced Imports
• Global Bond Rout in Pictures: Draghi Says "Get Used to Higher Volatility"

About that Trade Deficit "Improvement" Posted: 03 Jun 2015 12:17 PM PDT John Hussman just pinged me with this Trade Deficit Tweet in response to my post Second Quarter GDP Estimate Gets Lift from Reduced Imports. @MishGEA ... except that current account "improvement" typically matches weak gross domestic investment. (Hey Mish!) Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Second Quarter GDP Estimate Gets Lift from Reduced Imports Posted: 03 Jun 2015 11:38 AM PDT Last month imports surged in the wake of the West coast port strike settlement. This month imports declined, pretty much as expected. Since exports add to GDP and imports subtract, second quarter GDP estimates get a lift. Let's take a peek inside today's Census Bureau report on International Trade in Goods and Services for April. Exports and Imports Highlights The goods and services deficit was $40.9 billion in April, down $9.7 billion from $50.6 billion in March, revised. Exports were $189.9 billion, $1.9 billion more than March exports. Imports were $230.8 billion, $7.8 billion less than March imports. Year-To-Date The goods and services deficit increased $1.5 billion, or 0.9 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $18.0 billion or 2.3 percent. Imports decreased $16.5 billion or 1.8 percent. Year-Over-Year The average goods and services deficit decreased $0.5 billion from the three months ending in April 2014 Average exports of goods and services decreased $4.9 billion from April 2014. Average imports of goods and services decreased $5.4 billion from April 2014. Trade Balance Second Quarter GDP Gets Lift Year-to-date the deficit increased slightly from the same period last year, and year-over-year the deficit decreased slightly. Simply put, there is not a lot happening in the way of trade on a smoothed basis. However, the month-to-month improvement was bigger than expected, so the second quarter GDP gets a lift in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Forecast. "The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 1.1 percent on June 3, up from 0.8 percent on June 1. The nowcast for the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.6 percentage point to -0.2 percentage point following this morning's international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau." Consumer spending and home building will drive the results for the rest of the quarter. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Global Bond Rout in Pictures: Draghi Says "Get Used to Higher Volatility" Posted: 03 Jun 2015 10:32 AM PDT Bond Rout in Pictures German 10-year bonds hit a yield low of .048% on April 16. Since then it's been a pretty steep uphill climb in yield (down in price). Germany 10-Year Bond Yield Spain 10-Year Bond Yield Yield on the Spanish 10-year bond hit a preposterously low yield of 1.052% on March 11. It now sits at 2.136%, a rise of 108 basis points. US 10-Year Bond Yield Get Used to Higher Volatility Bloomberg reports Draghi Says Volatility Here to Stay as Global Bond Rout Deepens. With an insouciant turn of phrase, Mario Draghi whipped up a frenzy of selling in government bonds that left German securities on track for their worst two-day slump in the history of the euro era. After the ECB President said markets must get used to periods of higher volatility, Germany's 10-year borrowing costs jumped to a seven-month high, Treasuries tumbled and Spanish bonds pared gains. Government bonds in the euro region extended a drop from Tuesday, when a report showed euro-area inflation rose more than economists forecast. The declines left investors sitting on a year-to-date loss for the first time in 2015. "We should get used to periods of higher volatility," Draghi said at a press briefing in Frankfurt on Wednesday. "At very low levels of interest rates, asset prices tend to show higher volatility. The Governing Council was unanimous in its assessment that we should look through these developments and maintain a steady monetary policy stance." US Yield Curve Curve Watchers Anonymous puts the bond rout in proper perspective with this chart. click on chart for sharper image Comments Yield on the US 2-year bond (purple) and 3-year bond (green) have been steadily rising since early 2013.  Yield on the 30-year bond (red) and 10-year bond (orange) hit recent highs in late 2013 before declining for the entire year in 2014, bottoming in January of 2015.  Yield on the 5-year bond (blue) rose sharply in early 2013 and had meandered near 1.6% ever since. These actions are in line with what one would expect on the short end, presuming the Fed is going to hike. Yet, if the economy was really ready to lift off as the Fed thinks, yield on the long end would be rising faster than it has. Will the Fed hike this year? It's still data dependent. The Fed certainly has a rosier forecast for the economy than I do. The wild card is the Fed may very well decide to hike anyway, having yapped about doing that for years. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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