Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Default and Get it Over With; Stop the Needless Torture
• Venezuela Bans Evictions, Delinquencies Soar 99%, Impossible to Get New Lease
• Income Up 0.4%, Spending Flat (Lower Than Any Economist's Estimate); Rent, Dividend, Obamacare Analysis

Default and Get it Over With; Stop the Needless Torture Posted: 01 Jun 2015 03:32 PM PDT Greek officials keep stating a deal is near.  Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Warns Greece May Need to Default on Debts as IMF deadline looms. Goldman Sachs broached the subject of a default in a note published on Monday, claiming that the country could be forced into drastic measures amid fears that it will miss a €305m (£220m) payment due on Friday to the International Monetary Fund. It will be "very challenging" for Greece and its creditors to reach a deal to unlock the final €7.2bn of the country's bailout aid, said the bank's chief European economist, Huw Pill. Warning that Greek government cash reserves were nearly exhausted, Pill said new elections could be triggered in Greece, alongside a debt default and limits on removing cash from banks. "Facing this reality, a new political mandate­­ and thus a new government, a referendum or new elections ­­ will be required in Greece," he said. "Not only is it possible that we may need to see sovereign technical default and/or blocked Greek bank deposits in order to come to an accommodation between Greece and its official creditors, it may be necessary to do so in order to break the current impasse in negotiations." Greek banks, which have been surviving on emergency handouts from the European Central Bank, have seen massive outflows in the past week. Andreas Dombret, an executive board member of the German central bank, told the Bild newspaper: "The Greek government would be well advised to act quickly. For the Greeks banks it is five minutes to midnight." "A temporary deal is close," said the financial daily Naftemporiki, citing government sources. Greek sources were investing hopes in a meeting in Berlin on Monday night between the German chancellor Angela Merkel, the French president François Hollande and the president of the EU commission, Jean-Claude Juncker. "Under no circumstances will it be the broad 'unified' deal that the government had hoped for, since it will even leave open the evaluation of the current programme which expires on June 30," Naftemporiki said. "Essentially, with a 'temporary' agreement the government and the prime minister will solve, albeit fleetingly, the suffocating problem of the country's financial needs while on the part of the lenders a painful 'Grexit' will have been avoided." Why Bother? A temporary deal is possible, but color me skeptical following the Greek Prime Minister's attack on the Troika in the Sunday edition of the French newspaper Le Monde (See Tsipras Accuses Troika of "Creditor Monstrosity", Urges Eurozone Leaders to Read "For Whom the Bell Tolls"). Rather, I suspect Tsipras falsely seeks to reassure Greek citizens to stop the massive run on Greek banks that accelerated last week. Stop the Needless Torture  Why torture Greek citizens anymore? If you are going to default, it's best to do it right away, as in four or five years ago. Instead, Greek politician after politician put Greek citizens through the wringer for years, with nothing but pain and misery for it. Now they want yet another "temporary" deal that will last at most a month before they go back to still more negotiations over a third bailout that will never be successful. Enough! Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Venezuela Bans Evictions, Delinquencies Soar 99%, Impossible to Get New Lease Posted: 01 Jun 2015 11:33 AM PDT Thanks to inane economic policies enacted by former Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, and kept in place by current president Nicolás Maduro, it's impossible to find an apartment to rent in Venezuela. Mish-modified translation from Libre Mercado ... Renting an apartment in Venezuela is impossible mission. Supply is tight and prices exorbitant, quite inaccessible to the vast majority of the population thanks to the 2011 Law Against Eviction and Arbitrary Unemployment. Venezuela made numerous mistakes over the years, with each mistake reduced the supply of rental units. A rent freeze in 2003, led to a 25% decline of rental units. An expropriation ordinance in 2006 caused an extra drop of 51% of rental units. Rental restrictions applied between 2007 and 2008 caused a similar contraction. The 2011 law led to the virtual disappearance of housing for rent. Regulation has resulted in massive unpaid rent. While thousands of homeowners have favorable eviction judgments, execution is suspended until the Ministry of Housing finds another place for the evicted tenant. Today, there are only five listings of apartments for rent in Caracas in the national press, with prices ranging from 80,000 to 195,000 bolivars a month, almost 30 times the minimum wage. A quick check shows the metropolitan region of Caracas has an estimated population of 5,243,301. Those 5+ million people can choose between a grand total of five rental listings. Landlords would rather have an apartment sit vacant than rent it out for nothing, losing control of the property in the process. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Income Up 0.4%, Spending Flat (Lower Than Any Economist's Estimate); Rent, Dividend, Obamacare Analysis Posted: 01 Jun 2015 10:08 AM PDT Those expecting a strong bounce in consumer spending did not get it in April even though personal income and disposable personal income each rose 0.4%. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate for April spending was for a 0.2% rise. Instead, spending came in at 0.0% lower than any estimate in the consensus range of 0.1% to 0.4%. The consumer started off the second quarter slowly, putting income into savings and not spending. Consumer spending was unchanged in April with deep declines in spending on both durable and nondurable goods, down 0.7 percent and down 0.5 percent respectively, offset by another incremental increase in spending on services of plus 0.2 percent. Personal income, boosted by rents and dividends, rose a solid 0.4 percent though the gain for wages & salaries was less strong at 0.2 percent. The savings rate rose 4 tenths in the month to 5.6 percent. Inflation readings are very tame with the price index unchanged in the month and the core up only 0.1 percent. The core rate, unlike April's 1.8 percent core reading for the CPI where weightings on housing and medical costs are greater, is showing less pressure, down slightly to 1.2 percent. Overall prices are barely up at all year-on-year, at plus 0.1 percent. The April retail sales report first signaled trouble for second-quarter spending that today's report confirms. The consumer, the economy's bread-and-butter right now given weakness in manufacturing, is sitting on their hands. This report pushes back the outlook for the Fed's first rate hike. Rent, Dividend, Obamacare Analysis Half the growth in income was due to rents and dividends. Hmmm. Who collects rent and dividends and who pays the extra rent? The personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 5.6 percent in April, compared with 5.2 percent in March. Where is saving coming from? Those collecting rent and dividends or the average Joe paying more for Obamacare and rent? It's pretty easy to see what's happening here: All but the well-to-do consumers struggle with rising rent, rising medical expenses, and a recent rise in the price of gasoline. Yet, economists continue to expect consumers to spend more money the consumers don't have, on junk consumers don't need. There are exceptions, but economists are a collectively dense lot, sticking to their broken models instead of looking at things from a common sense point of view. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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