| Euroskeptics Poised to Form Government in Denmark, Seek Alliance and Rules Changes with Cameron Posted: 19 Jun 2015 03:59 PM PDT Anti-euro parties are on a roll. In a shocking election result in Denmark, Eurosceptic Danish People's Party Surge in General Election. The eurosceptic Danish People's Party could become the largest party in a new right-wing government in a shock result that brings David Cameron a powerful new ally in his bid for EU renegotiations.
The anti-immigrant party took 21.1 percent of the votes, jumping past their Liberal allies to become Denmark's second biggest party.
With 99 percent of votes counted, Denmark's national broadcasters DR and TV2 projected opposition leader Lars Loekke Rasmussen's bloc would get more than the 90 seats needed to secure a majority in the 179-seat legislature.
"It is completely unreal," said Kristian Thulesen Dahl, the Danish People's Party (DPP) leader, as he congratulated his party, but he gave no hints even on whether his party wanted to join a ruling Right-wing coalition let alone lead it.
"It's an astonishing result," said Ian Manners, a British politics professor at the University of Copenhagen. Right-Wing Eurosceptics Look Set to Form a New GovernmentIn the wake of the election, The Independent reports Right-Wing Eurosceptics Look Set to Form a New Government. Euroskeptic Party Wins Danish ElectionsStrator explains things a little better with its analysis: Euroskeptic Party Wins Danish Elections. The results are in following Denmark's elections, and the Euroskeptic and anti-immigration Danish People's Party (DPP) has won with 21.1 percent of the vote. Denmark's voting system is based on groupings of parties, called voting blocs. To form a government, an individual party's bloc must win an overall majority. This system worked against the Social Democratic Party, the lead party of the incumbent center-left coalition. Although it received 26.3 percent of the vote, its left-wing "red bloc" did not perform as well as the right-wing "blue bloc," in which the DPP is the highest placed.
However the DPP chooses to interact with the government, the party's influence will be significant — and its increased role will impact wider European trends. Recently re-elected British Prime Minister David Cameron is renegotiating the United Kingdom's relationship with Europe and will hold a public "in-out" referendum before the end of 2017. The DPP is part of the same European Conservatives and Reformists Group as Cameron's Tories in the European Parliament and is equally concerned about the erosion of national sovereignty in Europe and perceived high levels of immigration. European Parliament member and DPP vice-chair Morten Messerschmidt said the party's intention is to "make Denmark into Cameron's biggest ally." Indeed, even before the election, the DPP had managed to convince Venstre, which is nominally pro-Europe, to offer its support for Cameron's renegotiation if the blue bloc won. Once the new government takes power, the United Kingdom looks set to gain a firm ally.
The Alternative for Germany party, another member of the European Conservatives and Reformists, is well-positioned to taking advantage of German frustrations with the Greek debt situation. Although the party is currently beset with internal strife, if it emerges united it could also ally with the DPP and the Tories. Poland's Euroskeptic Law and Justice Party, also a member of the right-wing European Parliament group, won the country's presidential election last month and stands to perform strongly in general elections in October 2015. Although some of Cameron's immigration policies might be distasteful to the Polish people, a potential Law and Justice-led government in Warsaw would find common ground on reclaiming sovereignty from the European Union. With all of these likely supporters, Cameron's Conservatives and the DPP have the potential to form an alliance of Northern European parties dedicated to the repatriation of power to European countries. Euroskeptics on the MarchThe Stratfor report is via email. I don't have a link for it yet. Euroskeptic (some spell it Eurosceptic) parties are on the march in Denmark, Greece, France, Spain, Finland, and Poland. We may see renewed life from AfD in Germany. A potentially huge victory party may be in the works in Spain, where anti-euro party Podemos is flirting with a lead in national elections later this year. See Shifting Sentiment in Spain: 2011 vs. 2015; Could an Anti-Euro Party Win the 2015 Spanish National Election? for further discussion. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| ECB Unscheduled Conference Today; Emergency Eurozone Meeting Monday; ECB Ponders Shutting of ELA as Cash Withdrawals Accelerate Posted: 19 Jun 2015 05:03 AM PDT The mad dash and perhaps last dash for euros in Greece is on. Some will undoubtedly be frozen out as soon as the ECB halts emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greek Banks.
Emergence Meeting Monday, Unscheduled ECB Conference Call Today There's an Emergency Meeting of Eurozone Leader on Monday to discuss Greece, but the ECB may very well act in advance. Once ELA is removed, Greece will soon be forced to issue capital controls. Greek banks have continued to suffer withdrawals amid concerns that Athens and its creditors will fail to strike a deal to avoid a debt default.
The eurozone's top central bankers are set to decide in the next few hours whether to approve an increase in emergency loans to Greece's banking system after talks on Thursday between finance ministers failed to strike an agreement to prevent the country from defaulting on its debts and potentially crashing out of the currency bloc.
Depositors pulled out more than €1bn on Thursday from the country's four systemic banks, bringing the total for the week to €3bn - three times the average weekly amount over the past two months.
Greece has already seen more than €30bn of deposit flight this year in an orderly process under which depositors notify their bank of withdrawals and take the cash out 24 hours later.
The latest withdrawals came as eurozone leaders were summoned to an emergency summit on Monday in a last-ditch effort to prevent Greece from defaulting on its debts and potentially crashing out of the EU's common currency.
The European Central Bank's governing council will hold an unscheduled conference call on Friday where they will decide whether to allow a rise of around €3bn in Emergency Liquidity Assistance available from the Bank of Greece, the country's central bank.
A two-thirds majority of voting members of the council would be needed to block the rise. The council, made up of the ECB's top six officials and the governors of member states' central banks, could also approve a smaller rise.
The request for an increase came from the Greek central bank on Thursday evening -- just a day after the ECB backed a €1.1bn rise in ELA that took the figure of emergency loans available to €84.1bn. Greek banks are thought to have around €95bn-worth of collateral that they can use in exchange for the loans under the current terms of the loans.
According to people briefed on eurozone planning, Greece's central bank could request that Mr Tsipras legislate for capital controls if no agreement is reached at the Monday night summit, called for 7pm. Question of CollateralThe ECB requires collateral in exchange for loans, but pray tell, how good is that collateral? Capital controls actually violate EU rules, but that will not stop eurozone leaders from telling Greece to impose them. My suggestion to Greece, and one that I already think is being acted on, is to wait until the ECB halts the ELA. At that point, Greece can and will blame the ECB for the controls. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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