Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Odds of Venezuelan Default Within 5 Years Hits 63%; Investors Realize Venezuela May Run Out of Money
Average Workweek Back at Pre-Recession Levels: What About the Obamacare Effect?
US Obesity Rates Exceed 20% in Every State; Care to Supersize That?

Odds of Venezuelan Default Within 5 Years Hits 63%; Investors Realize Venezuela May Run Out of Money

Posted: 09 Sep 2014 05:30 PM PDT

Venezuela has nice oil reserves but the government is spending more cash than it receives from pumping oil.

Investors are finally starting to realize Venezuela may run out of money and will be forced to default on bonds.

Please consider Venezuelan Bond Rout Deepens as Default Specter Raised

Venezuelan debt traders are beginning to consider the possibility the country may run out of money.

The cost of insuring the country's foreign-currency bonds against non-payment soared yesterday by the most since the aftermath of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s collapse in 2008 to 14.25 percentage points, the most expensive in the world.

While most analysts and investors expect Venezuela and its state-owned oil company to make $5.3 billion in bond payments coming due next month, concern is mounting the country may find itself without enough cash to service debt as soon as next year as foreign reserves drop to an 11-year low and oil prices sink. The nation's notes tumbled yesterday after Ricardo Hausmann, a Venezuelan-born economist at Harvard University, questioned the government's decision to keep paying bondholders in the face of shortages of everything from basic medicine to toilet paper.

"The bond market is finally beginning to wake up" to the possibility of Venezuela defaulting, David Rees, an economist at Capital Economics in London, said by phone. He predicts the country could default as soon as this year.

Venezuela's bonds fell 4.4 percent yesterday, pushing the extra yield investors demand to own the nation's debt instead of U.S. Treasuries to a six-month high of 11.95 percentage points, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The country's notes now yield 3.31 percentage points more than debt from similarly rated Ukraine.

The probability of Venezuela missing a payment on its bonds in the next five years rose four percentage points to 63 percent yesterday, according to traders in the credit-default swaps market. The cost of insuring Venezuela's debt passed Argentina's after that country missed a July 30 payment deadline, causing trading to be suspended.

I have been talking about this possibility for quite some time and consider default on foreign-denominated bonds to be the baseline scenario.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Average Workweek Back at Pre-Recession Levels: What About the Obamacare Effect?

Posted: 09 Sep 2014 11:45 AM PDT

A chart of hours worked shows the average work week has returned to pre-recession levels.

Average Work Week

Moreover, note that the number of part-time jobs has been relative steady in the recovery.

Employed Usually Working Part Time

What About the Obamacare Effect?

The Obama administration uses the above charts to make the claim Obamacare did not lead to a reduction in hours worked.

Obama is wrong.

For detailed analysis, please consider The Worst Job Stat Continues To Get Even Worse by Jed Graham at Investor's Business Daily.

Amid all the focus on boosting the minimum wage and legislating living wages, virtually no one seems to have noticed what is happening to the workweek in low-wage industries.

Since December 2012, private industries paying up to about $14.50 an hour have added, on net, 972,000 nonsupervisory jobs with an average workweek of a mere 17.7 hours, an IBD analysis finds.

That doesn't mean new employees are being hired for such few hours. Rather, it reflects a combination of reduced hours in existing jobs and short workweeks for newly created jobs.

Overall, in these low-wage industries which employ 30 million rank-and-file workers, the average workweek shrank to 27.3 hours per week in July, an IBD analysis shows. That's the shortest workweek on record, except for this past February, when mid-month blizzards wreaked havoc during the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey week.

The conventional wisdom among economists is that there's been no apparent shift to part-time work and that ObamaCare's employer mandate hasn't led to shorter workweeks.

But shorter hours clocked by nonmanagers in low-wage industries are being obscured because the rest of the workforce is now clocking a longer average workweek than even before the recession started.

For low-wage industry workers, on the other hand, the recovery in the workweek from a then-record low 27.5 hours in mid-2009 began to reverse in the latter half of 2012, and it's been pretty much all downhill since then.

Evidence points to ObamaCare as an important factor in the shrinking workweek.

Tale of Two Recoveries

At first glance it may appear the above chart is in conflict with the chart of people usually working part time. However, there is no discrepancy.

The BLS defines part time as less than 35 hours. Low wage industries had a lot of part-timers working 32 hours.

Under Obamacare, the threshold of part-time jobs is 30 hours. Obama made that change on purpose to force more businesses to offer healthcare.

Instead, busiunesses cut hours. It was the hours of the already part-timers that got cut, and that explains why there was no spike in part time employment.

The Obamacare effect is very real as the above chart shows.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

US Obesity Rates Exceed 20% in Every State; Care to Supersize That?

Posted: 09 Sep 2014 12:37 AM PDT

Obesity rates in the US are soaring along with healthcare costs: A New Study Shows US Adult Obesity Rates Exceed 20% in Every State with at least 30% of adults are obese in more than 20 states.

Rates of adult obesity increased in six US states and fell in none last year, and in more states than ever – 20 – at least 30% of adults are obese, according to an analysis released on Thursday.

The conclusions were reported by the Trust for America's Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and were based on federal government data. They suggest the problem may be worsening despite widespread publicity about the nation's obesity epidemic, from First Lady Michelle Obama and many others, plus countless programs to address it.

From 2011 to 2012, by comparison, the rate of obesity increased in only one state.

The 2013 adult obesity rate exceeds 20% in every state, while 42 have rates above 25%. For the first time two states, Mississippi and West Virginia, rose above 35%. The year before, 13 states were above 30% and 41 had rates of at least 25%.

Adult obesity rates increased last year in Alaska, Delaware, Idaho, New Jersey, Tennessee and Wyoming.

Obesity is defined as a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or more, where BMI is calculated by dividing weight (in kilograms) by height (in meters) squared. Overweight is defined as a BMI of 25 to 29.9.

Obesity Math

Obesity math says divide weight in kilograms by height in meters squared. The average person may struggle to convert kilograms to pounds, and height in meters to height in feet and inches.

Not to fear, the American Cancer Society has a nifty BMI Calculator that will do just that.

Olive Garden Offers 7 Weeks Unlimited Pasta for $100

While pondering your BMI score, inquiring minds may wish to consider Olive Garden Offers 7 Weeks Unlimited Pasta for $100.

Olive Garden is about to try a pretty outlandish gimmick to lure folks in the door: pasta up the wazoo.

They're not calling it that, of course. But on Monday, the casual dining chain whose business has seriously softened in recent years, will announce plans for its first-ever "Never Ending Pasta Pass" -- which, for $100, gives the holder the right to consume all of the pasta, salad, bread and Coca-Cola branded soft drinks that they can stuff down for seven weeks.

But you may need to act fast. Only 1,000 of these pasta passes will be sold -- beginning Monday at 3 p.m. ET -- online via the Olive Garden web site. Nothing like being one of 1,000 VIP's who can gorge on pasta for 49 days in a row. The PR stunt piggybacks with the chain's annual "Never Ending Pasta Bowl" promo, Sept. 22 through Nov. 9., which lets folks eat all the pasta they want for $9.99.

There's been a recent rash of all-you-can eat promotions in casual dining. Little wonder. In a struggling industry, these promos tend to generate social media buzz and boost customer visits. In July, TGI Friday's rolled out an "Endless Appetizers" promotion that let folks chow down all the appetizers they wanted for $10. Red Lobster, the former sister company to Olive Garden, is in the midst of its "Endless Shrimp" fest, which fetches about $15.99, depending on location. And Outback currently has a $15.99 Steak and Unlimited Shrimp promo.

Last year during its "Never Ending Pasta Bowl" promotion, Olive Garden served 13 million bowls, says Spenchian. "It's our most popular and most requested promotion," he says. And, he notes, the 800-store chain hopes to attract more attention to the promotion by tacking-on the $100 Never Ending Pasta Pass.

Olive Garden Update

Olive Garden says 1,000 Never Ending Pasta Passes sold out within 45 minutes.

Care to Supersize That?

What percentage of fast food restaurants comes from up-sizing or super-sizing orders? Just asking .. I don't have the answer.

Confessions

I actually like Olive Garden. The unlimited salad bowl is fantastic. Moreover, you can cut out a ton of calories by getting their lite dressing rather than their regular dressing. Not only that, it actually tastes better in my opinion.

Olive Garden "Lite" has 60% fewer calories. Instead of "Supersize me?" Olive Garden should ask "Care to try our lite dressing with 60% fewer calories?"

I like it so much that I order bottles of Olive Garden Lite on Amazon.

I also like Olive Garden breadsticks, but now eat one instead of several. And I have gone to grilled foods instead of fried.

Recommendation: Try the Olive Garden grilled salmon.

Mish Results

By giving up carbs, not fat, I lost about 30 pounds in a year, most of it rapidly. And I maintained that for over a year.

I am still not where I want to be. My BMI is 24.6, just inside the normal category.

I would like to get my BMI down to about 22-23 which would be a loss of another 10-12 pounds or so, fluctuating between 150-155 pounds.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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