Sunday, September 7, 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Marine Le Pen Ahead of Hollande in France Presidential Poll; Le Pen Blames EU for Crisis in Ukraine

Posted: 07 Sep 2014 12:10 PM PDT

French president Francois Hollande's term does not end until 2017, but for the first time ever Marine Le Pen's Front National party is on top in head-to-head polling.

Her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen once shocked France by taking Front National to round two in the 2002 election, but was defeated by incumbent president Jacques Chirac who obtained 82% of the votes.

The Financial Times reports Poll shows Le Pen beating Hollande in presidential run-off
Marine Le Pen, leader of France's far-right National Front, would beat struggling incumbent François Hollande in a run-off election for the French presidency, according to a new poll.

The unprecedented finding came as a fresh blow to Mr Hollande at the end of a week in which he suffered a cascade of bad news, including the publication of a lacerating book by Valérie Trierweiler, his former partner.

A poll for Ifop, published on Friday, showed that Ms Le Pen would beat Mr Hollande by 54-46 per cent if they were matched today in the decisive second round of the presidential election. The next election is due in 2017.

The survey confirmed an earlier poll showing Ms Le Pen leading all other contenders of left and right in the first round. But it was the first time she had been shown ahead of a mainstream candidate in the second round – a scenario regarded to date as unrealistic.

The Ifop poll followed another on Friday by TNS-Sofres giving Mr Hollande an all-time low approval rating of just 13 per cent.

Mr Hollande's 13 per cent approval rating compared with the 20 per cent floor hit during his term by Mr Sarkozy, who was shown by the Ifop poll beating Ms Le Pen in a presidential vote by 60-40 per cent.

Mr Hollande has little choice but to try to tough out his demoralising slump in the hope that his reform policies will finally revive the stalled economy, the root source of his problems. But his opponents scent blood.

"Inexorably, one senses the moment is coming when François Hollande finds himself completely paralysed," commented the rightwing daily Le Figaro, which published the latest polls.
Le Pen Blames EU for Crisis in Ukraine

Please consider Crisis in Ukraine is 'all EU's fault' – France's Marine Le Pen.
"The crisis in Ukraine is all the European Union's fault. Its leaders negotiated a trade deal with Ukraine, which essentially blackmailed the country to choose between Europe and Russia," Le Pen told Le Monde daily in an interview.

"The European Union's diplomacy is a catastrophe," Le Pen told RT's Sophie Shevardnadze in an exclusive interview in June. [See Marine Le Pen: EU robbed us of all liberties, we should fight to get them back]

"The EU speaks out on foreign affairs either to create problems, or to make them worse."

"Ukraine's entry into the European Union; no need to tell fairy tales: Ukraine absolutely does not have the economic level to join the EU," Le Pen told RT.

In her fresh interview with Le Monde, the National Front leader had a positive attitude towards Russian President Vladimir Putin and the economic model he builds.

"I have a certain admiration for the man [Putin]. He proposes a patriotic economic model, radically different than what the Americans are imposing on us," said Marine Le Pen.

Citing "admiration" for Putin is probably not going to play well with French voters.

And her assertion "The crisis in Ukraine is all the European Union's fault" is certainly wrong given the role the US played at Maidan, leading to the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych, former Ukraine president.

Nonetheless she is correct regarding European Union's diplomacy being a "catastrophe". So is EU agricultural policy, tax policy, and countless other policies.

2017 is a long way away. Much can happen between now and the next election for both Hollande, and Le Pen. Will Hollande even survive that long?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Under Pressure From Democrats, Obama Delays Immigration Action Until After Midterm Elections

Posted: 07 Sep 2014 12:03 AM PDT

In June, President Obama promised executive action on immigration.

He lied.

With polls showing a mere 26% Approval Rating for Obama's Immigration Reform Policies, the president bowed to political pressure from his own party and delayed his immigration cram-downs until after the mid-term elections.

Please consider Obama to Delay Executive Action on Immigration.
President Barack Obama will delay executive action on immigration until after the midterm elections, White House officials said Saturday, a bow to political pressure from Democrats in tough Senate races who had complained the action could hurt their campaigns.

The delay breaks Obama's promise, broadcast from the Rose Garden in June, that he would act on his own by summer's end to fix as many problems of the immigration system as the law allows.

Now, White House officials say the president will act by the end of the year.

The official added: "The president is confident in his authority to act, and he will before the end of the year.

The executive action had been widely expected to ratchet back deportations and possibly offer work permits to people in the U.S. illegally, perhaps millions. It might also include administrative changes pushed by companies that would produce more legal visas for people seeking to work in the U.S.

On Saturday, Scott Brown, a Republican who is running for the Senate in New Hampshire, and has used immigration to challenge his opponent, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, denounced the White House's move as cynical.

"President Obama's decision to delay executive action to grant amnesty to illegal immigrants until after the election is of little comfort to people like myself who believe in the rule of law," he said. "Make no mistake: President Obama plans to grant amnesty, it's just that he will cynically wait until after the election so as not to harm Senate Democrats like Jeanne Shaheen."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), who faces a tough challenger this fall, also denounced the move.

"What's so cynical about today's immigration announcement is that the president isn't saying he'll follow the law—he's just saying he'll go around the law once it's too late for Americans to hold his party accountable in the November elections," he said.
Voter Opinions

For a look at voter opinions, please see 26% Approval Rating for Obama's Immigration Reform Policies.

Democrats and Republicans alike disapprove of Obama's immigration plan.

A mere 26% of voters approve Obama's plans, and an even smaller 24% think the president has the legal authority to grant amnesty to these illegal immigrants without Congress' approval. And his own party does not approve of his plan.

Will that stop him? Of course not. He will do as he pleases after the election.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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