Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Housing Rebound Didn't Lift Economy as Much as Economists Expected: Why?; Six Questions for Zandi
Italy Seeks "Silver Bullet" to Clean Up €330 Billion Nonperforming Loans; Explaining the "Bad Bank" Concept
Existing Home Sales Decline, NAR Calls Report "Disturbing"; First Time Buyers Decline Third Year; Housing Clearly Weakening
Cash is King for Holiday Shopping; 63% of Millennials Have No Credit Cards; Millennial Attitudes and Deflationary Trends

Housing Rebound Didn't Lift Economy as Much as Economists Expected: Why?; Six Questions for Zandi

Posted: 23 Nov 2015 04:04 PM PST

Home prices are nearly back to where they were before the crash. In some places, home prices are above where they were at the peak of the national boom.

Yet, the impact of rising home prices has not had the economic effect that economists expected.

The Wall Street Journal addresses the issue in Why the Housing Rebound Hasn't Lifted the U.S. Economy Much.

I think the journal misses the reasons by a mile, as does Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. Let's take a look.

Home equity has roughly doubled to $12.1 trillion since house prices hit bottom in 2011, according to the Federal Reserve. As a result, a key gauge of housing wealth—homeowners' equity as a share of real-estate values—is nearing the point seen a decade ago, before the downturn.

Such a level once would have offered a double-barreled boost to the economy by providing owners with more money to tap and making them feel more flush and likely to spend. But today, that newfound wealth has had little effect on behavior.

Home equity's effect on consumer spending is at its lowest ebb since the early 1990s, according to Moody's Analytics. The research firm estimates that every $1 rise in home equity in the fourth quarter of 2014 would translate to about two cents of extra consumer spending over the next 1 to 1½ years. That was a third of the impact home equity had before the bust, Moody's said.

Why aren't homeowners feeling flush again? For one thing, since rising home prices over the past few years largely have made up for ground lost during the recession, many owners might not even realize they have equity to tap.

The bust looms large and home equity is seen as more fleeting than it used to be, said Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan.

"Consumers are definitely more conservative financially than they were 10 years ago. They've seen that house prices can be volatile," Mr. Duncan said.

Mortgage lenders also aren't giving owners access to as much equity as they used to. While it was common during the boom to see loans that took out 100% or even more of a home's value, now few will let an owner take out more than 80%.

Finally, other kinds of loans are cheaper, removing one incentive to tap home equity.

Could home equity start to flex its muscle sometime soon?

Some economists think it might. One reason: In many metro areas, home prices have overtaken or are about to overtake their boom-era peak.

About 38% of metro areas had prices above their pre-2009 peak at the end of the third quarter, up from a 30% level last year, according to Moody's Analytics and CoreLogic. A further 13% of metros are within 5% of their prebust peak.

"We're at an inflection point," [Moody's Analytics chief economist] Mark Zandi said. "Since the crash, it's all been about repairing homeowners' equity but now that house prices are returning to prerecession levels, we will see homeowners' equity driving consumer spending, home improvements and economic activity."

Zandi Misses Demographic Boat

Boomers are not about to go on a spending spree based on the once widely held but now discredited notion that home prices always go up.

Headed into retirement, boomers in general have more worries than whether or not their kitchen cabinets are up to date. Boomer home improvements will primarily pertain to replacing worn out heaters, air conditioning, or appliances, not remodeling.

And millennials, especially women, still live at home in record numbers. For details, please see Women Not Leaving the Nest in Record Numbers; Marriage and Kids, Who Can Afford Them?

Six Questions for Zandi

How can you spend "home equity", when you don't even have a home?
What about the need of boomers to downsize, not upgrade?
What about student debt?
What about attitudes of millennials?;
What about health care costs for aging boomers?
What about millennials who have to take care of their aging parents and don't have the means?

Zandi expects the prior trend will resume. I propose we are not at inflection point. It's all in his head, and easy answers to the above questions on attitudes and demographics explain why.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Italy Seeks "Silver Bullet" to Clean Up €330 Billion Nonperforming Loans; Explaining the "Bad Bank" Concept

Posted: 23 Nov 2015 11:59 AM PST

In defiance of eurozone rules against state aid to banks, Italy Plans Bad Bank "Silver Bullet" Bailout.

Italy plans to launch a series of bad bank-style measures as early as the end of the year in an effort to cut its €330bn pile of non-performing loans as it seeks a "silver bullet" to boost its weak economic recovery, say senior officials.

Such a move raises the prospect of a confrontation with the European Commission, which has so far rejected draft plans presented by the Italian Treasury, arguing that any government intervention would qualify as state aid, the officials say.

According to several senior Italian officials, one plan under discussion involves placing the bulk of Italy's NPLs into a privately held vehicle in which senior debt would be guaranteed by the state, probably through the state development agency Cassa Depositi e Prestiti.

The aim would be to reduce the gap between the price banks are offering to sell the loans and the price private entities are willing to pay for them, which has remained stubbornly wide, amid private investors' concerns about the ease of clawing back soured loans in Italy.

One senior government official said a clean-up of NPLs would be the single most effective "silver bullet" for boosting Italian growth.

The cabinet was meeting on Sunday for an emergency session, while the markets were closed, to decide measures to inject €2bn to save four small banks — Banca Marche, CariFerrara, CariChieti and Banca Etruria — taken under state control in the past year due to lack of solvency.

Italy's stock of NPLs hit €330bn in mid-2014, according to the International Monetary Fund. The sum has barely slipped from that level — with a knock-on effect on bank lending. Credit flow to small businesses that make up the bulk of the Italian economy remains stagnant, according to data from the Bank of Italy.

Most recent data show Italy's economy grew a disappointing 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of this year.

Echoing growing concern among Italy's business leaders, Citi analyst Giada Giani wrote this week that while the country's reform momentum had picked up over the past two years, the impact on current growth was probably limited, as signs of improvement to overall competitiveness were scant.

"Once the monetary and fiscal stimuli fade, we reckon Italian GDP growth is unlikely to exceed the 0.75 per cent to 1 per cent range," she wrote.

Explaining the "Bad Bank" Concept

Take away artificial stimulus and I rather doubt Italy grew at all.

And with €330 billion nonperforming loans does anyone believe the ECB's stress tests that show eurozone banks are well capitalized.

Let's get down to the nitty-gritty of how the "bad bank" construct works and doesn't work.

The idea that you can take bad debt, isolate it, and it then magically becomes good debt, is of course ridiculous. Creating a bad bank does nothing in and of itself.

It is the "government guarantee" that cures the bad bank. And it is taxpayers who pay for the government.

And so here we go again, with another bailout of bondholders, at the expense of the public, and in violation of EC rules, should Italy proceed with the plan.

"At Risk" of Failing Euro Budget Rules

Every country in the Eurozone is "at risk" of violating budget rules for the simple reason nearly all of them currently and consistently violate budget rules.

Nonetheless, on November 17, the European Commission targeted Austria, Italy and Lithuania 'At Risk' of Failing Euro Budget Rules.

The European Union warned Tuesday another three of the 19 countries that use the euro, including Italy, risk breaking the currency bloc's budget rules and hinted it could give France some leeway in the wake of the attacks in Paris.

Though the EU's executive Commission said no country's draft budget has been found to be seriously in breach of the rules, it said Italy, Austria and Lithuania risk overshooting deficit limits in 2016. It urged the countries to revise their spending plans.

Pierre Moscovici, the EU's top economy official, indicated France may get a sympathetic hearing at the Commission if the country's budget plans deteriorate in coming months in the wake of the attacks. The French government has indicated it will boost security spending, which will affect its budget.

The euro rulebook encompasses many requirements, the most important one being that countries keep their budget deficits under 3 percent of annual GDP. If they don't, they must present plans to do so, or face fines. For Italy, the worry is not about the headline deficit number, which is below the 3 percent limit, but the country's ability to handle its debts.

Those under the strictures of a bailout program, currently only Greece and Cyprus, don't have to present plans. And Portugal didn't submit them, apparently because it's effectively without a government following last month's general election. The others, apart from Spain and including France, had presented plans that were said to be "broadly compliant" with 2016 requirements.

"Broadly" Compliant Defined

Broadly compliant means those countries may barely meet budget-deficit rule extensions, granted multiple times already, assuming there is not another economic slowdown nor another wave of terror.

France uses Paris as an excuse, but in reality France would have been "broadly non-compliant" anyway.

Of course, there is nothing magic about 3% deficits year-after-year. Exponentially speaking, even 1% eventually matters. Italy's debt burden that it cannot shrink even though it is compliant with the deficit rule is proof enough.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Existing Home Sales Decline, NAR Calls Report "Disturbing"; First Time Buyers Decline Third Year; Housing Clearly Weakening

Posted: 23 Nov 2015 10:14 AM PST

Existing home sales came in a bit under Bloomberg Econoday Consensus, down 3.4% in October. Year-over-year trends are weakening.

Sales of existing homes are not a source of strength for the economy, down 3.4 percent in October to a slightly lower-than-expected annualized rate of 5.36 million. Year-on-year, sales are up only 3.9 percent which is the lowest for this reading since January. Weakness is split roughly even between single-family homes, down 3.7 percent in the month to a 4.75 million rate, and condos, down 1.6 percent to a 610,000 rate.

Lack of homes on the market, in a reflection of price weakness, remains a major factor holding down sales. Supply relative to sales is at 4.8 months, up slightly from the prior month but still below the 5.2 months of October last year. A reading of 6.0 months is considered a balanced market. The number of homes on the market, at 2.14 million, is actually below the 2.24 million this time last year, an unwanted surprise that the National Association of Realtors, which compiles the existing home sales report, calls "disturbing".

Price data for October are once again weak, down 0.9 percent for both the median (at $219,600) and the average (at $262,800). Year-on-year, the median is up 5.8 percent with the average up 3.4 percent.

Regional sales data show a sharp decline in the West, down 8.7 percent in the month for a year-on-year gain of 2.7 percent. The South, which is the largest housing region, also shows weakness, down 3.2 percent for only a 0.5 percent year-on-year gain. The Northeast and Midwest were little changed in October with year-on-year appreciation very solid for both, in the high single digits.

But the weakness in the West and the weakness in the South are not positive indications for the housing sector where moderate strength on the new home side of the market is being offset by weakness on the existing side.

Existing Home Sales Percent Change From Year Ago

October vs. September

In September, Existing Home Sales Rose 4.7% Following August's 5% Decline.

This is what Bloomberg said a month ago: "Existing home sales bounced back very strongly in September, up 4.7 percent to nearly reverse the prior month's revised decline of 5.0 percent, a decline that now looks like an outlier. The month's annual sales rate, at 5.55 million, is just beyond Econoday's top-end forecast and the second best reading of the recovery. The year-on-year percentage gain, at plus 8.8 percent, is back where it was during the sales gains of the spring."

If there was an "outlier", perhaps it was the September gain, not the August and October declines.

And even though September sales data bounced, prices didn't. The median price declined 2.9% in September.

Bloomberg concluded "This report, which wraps up a busy and mostly positive week for housing data, is a big plus for the housing outlook, suggesting that demand for existing homes may be catching up with demand for new homes."

I responded: "That last statement by Econoday is amusing. For starters, new home sales are not all that strong, and it is new home sales that contribute most to GDP and family formations."

As a followup, please note my November 18 article Housing Starts Plunge 11% to 7-Month Low: Single-Family Down 2.4%, Multi-Family Down 25%

October wiped away all of September's good news and then some. 1.060 million starts was far below Econoday Consensus Estimate of 1.162 million SAAR and also well below the lowest estimate of 1.125 million.

Bloomberg pointed out hidden strength including "important good news" on October permits.

Spotlight on Permits

September month permits were down 5%
October permits rose only 4.1%.
September starts were revised lower from 1.206 million to 1.191 million (a 15,000 -1.24% negative revision).

In aggregate, that hardly looks like "important good news".

First Time Buyers Decline Third Year

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) notes First-time Buyers Fall Again in NAR Annual Buyer and Seller Survey.

"The share of first–time buyers declined for the third consecutive year and remained at its lowest point in nearly three decades as the overall strengthening pace of home sales over the past year was driven more by repeat buyers with dual incomes."

Housing Clearly Weakening

On average, starts are weakening, permits are weakening, new home sales are weakening, price data is weakening, and existing home sales are weakening.

First time buyers, a strong indication of family formation, is at a three-decades low, and the NAR is "disturbed" about trends.

Simply put, housing is weakening, albeit in a volatile way, making it a bit harder to spot the change in underlying trends.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Cash is King for Holiday Shopping; 63% of Millennials Have No Credit Cards; Millennial Attitudes and Deflationary Trends

Posted: 23 Nov 2015 12:32 AM PST

As we head into the black Friday holiday shopping season, cash is king.

Cash will be the most popular payment method for shoppers buying holiday gifts, with 39% of Americans saying they plan to use it for most of their holiday purchases, in a recent survey of 1,000 shoppers personal finance website Bankrate conducted with Princeton Survey Research Associates International. This number was about the same as in 2014, when 38% of holiday shoppers said they planned to use cash.

Behind cash, the most popular choices for payment were debit cards, with 31% saying they would pay this way, followed by credit cards (22%) and checks (3%).

Younger shoppers were especially unlikely to use credit cards; 48% of millennials said they would do most of their holiday shopping with debit cards, and 36% said they preferred cash. Mobile payments are still unpopular; only 14% of U.S. adults with smartphones or similar devices plan to make even one mobile payment during the holiday season, according to Bankrate.

Millennials in general tend to avoid credit cards more than previous generations have done; 63% of millennials don't own a single credit card, according to a separate Bankrate survey in 2014. "They grew up in the Great Recession and saw what happened with their parents," Cetera said. "They don't ever want to be in a situation where they're in debt. They're shying away from high-interest loans, essentially."

Millennial Attitudes

That stat on credit card usage by millennials is precisely in tune with statements I made in 2008 if not before.

Kids will be competing with their parents and grandparents for jobs that do not pay a living wage.
Children whose parents are being destroyed by debt now, will keep those memories for a long time.

Deflationary Trends

Millennial attitudes
Technology
Demographics of aging boomers
Student debt
Millennials overpay for healthcare
Low family formation rates

The Fed, the ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of China, etc., are fighting major deflationary forces.

Attitudes are the key force actually. It took two generations for memories of the great depression to go away.

And it will take at least a generation for millennials who saw their parents lose their homes or get into huge fights over money for those memories to vanish.

To top it off, the Fed (central banks in general) has spawned another enormous asset bubble that will hugely add to deflationary woes when it pops.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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Monday, November 23, 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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