Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Terror in Paris: "Several Dozen" Dead, Hostages Taken, France Closes Borders; Hey Chancellor Merkel
Business Inventories Rise More Than Expected; Inventory to Sales Ratio Highest in Recovery; Retailers Overestimating Demand?
Retail Sales Weaker Than Expected, Led by Autos; Car Boom Ending?
PPI Unexpectedly Declines Second Month; Another Big Decline Likely Next Month

Terror in Paris: "Several Dozen" Dead, Hostages Taken, France Closes Borders; Hey Chancellor Merkel

Posted: 13 Nov 2015 04:49 PM PST

France is having second thoughts about open borders. The unfortunate thing is it took a terrorist attack to come to the proper conclusion.

I am saddened to report Paris attacked: Dozens Dead, Hostages Taken.

Paris was struck by co-ordinated attacks on Friday night, causing chaos in the French capital in one of the deadliest terrorist atrocities on a western city since September 11, 2001.

President François Hollande declared that "several dozen" had died as he appeared on television to declare a state of emergency, deploying the military around Paris and closing France's borders.

At least six attacks began in busy and popular areas of the capital around 10pm local time.

Shootings targeted a concert hall near Place de la République and two other nearby restaurants in the 10th and 11th arrondissement, while two explosions rocked the Stade de France in northern Paris

Special forces were sent to the 1,5000seat Bataclan concert hall on Boulevard Voltaire, where the US band Eagles Of Death Metal was due to be performing. One or several attackers were holding hostages, according a police officer with knowledge of the situation.

"It's horrific," President Hollande said. "Operations are still unfolding, there's a police assault at the moment in Paris. We are mobilising all the police force possible to neutralise the terrorists." He did not name the suspects, but said: "We know who they are, we know where they come from."

In a brief statement from the White House, President Barack Obama said "We will do whatever it takes to work with the French people and nations around the world to bring these terrorists to justice."

The BBC reported that at least one man opened fire with an automatic weapon in a shootout in a central Paris restaurant shooting in the 10th arrondissement of the capital.

"Given the disturbing similarities to other attacks, this clearly co-ordinated series of violent acts bears all the hallmarks of international terrorism. Many hundreds of French citizens have travelled to Syria and Iraq, and the risk from those who return is well known and severe," he said.

German's Angela Merkel said she was "deeply shaken" by the attacks and that her thoughts were with the victims, their relatives and the people of Paris.

Night of Terror

The New York Times reports Paris Attacks Kill Dozens in Night of Deadly Terror

The Paris area reeled Friday night from a shooting rampage, explosions and mass hostage-taking that President François Hollande called an unprecedented terrorist attack on France. He closed the borders and mobilized the military in a national emergency.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but Twitter erupted with celebratory messages by members and sympathizers of the Islamic State, the extremist group based in Syria and Iraq that is under assault by major powers including the United States, France and Russia.

French news media reported that Kalashnikov rifles had been involved in the shootings — a favored weapon of militants who have attacked targets in France — and that many rounds had been fired.

ISIS Claims it Smuggled Thousands of Extremists Into Europe

Here's a warning headline from September 10: 'Just wait…' Islamic State reveals it has smuggled Thousands of extremists into Europe.

An Operative working for Islamic State has revealed the terror group has successfully smuggled thousands of covert jihadists into Europe.

The Syrian operative claimed more than 4,000 covert ISIS gunmen had been smuggled into western nations – hidden amongst innocent refugees.

The ISIS smuggler, who is in his thirties and is described as having a trimmed jet-black beard, revealed the ongoing clandestine operation is a complete success.
Many
"Just wait," he smiled.

There are now more than 4,000 covert ISIS gunmen "ready" across the European Union, he claimed.

The operative said the undercover infiltration was the beginning of a larger plot to carry out revenge attacks in the West in retaliation for the US-led coalition airstrikes.

Two Turkish refugee-smugglers backed up the claims made by the ISIS Syrian operative.

One admitted to helping more than ten trained ISIS rebels infiltrate Europe under the guise of asylum seekers.

The revelation comes after a spokesperson for Islamic State earlier this year called on Muslims in the West to carry out terror attacks.

Many Warned None Listened

On September 4, Nigel Farage warned Thousands of Isil fighters could use migrant crisis to 'flood' into Europe.

Discussing the threat of extremists targeting the crisis, Mr Farage said: "When Isil say they will use the migrant tide to flood Europe with 500,000 of their own jihadists, I think we better listen.

"Five hundred thousand may not be realistic but what if it's 5,000, what if it's 500? And already one of the Isil terrorist suspects who committed the first atrocity against holidaymakers in Tunisia has been seen getting off a boat onto Italian soil.

Hey Chancellor Merkel

Whether or not the people involved were refugees, this is precisely what many warned would happen. The risk is for more of the same, by smuggled terrorists.

What a sorry, sorry way to be right.

Hey chancellor Merkel, are your arms still wide open for millions more refugees? Is it too late to matter?

I offer my plan once again, for the fourth time.

Mish Proposed Strategy

Block the border between Greece and Turkey.
Block the border between Bulgaria and Turkey.
Stabilize Syria, even under Assad, but also seek promises of free Syrian elections
Eliminate the free handouts.
Give Turkey some aid for US/UK role in this mess.
Stabilize Syria. Halt all US support for alleged "moderate" Al Qaeda rebels. Instead, arm the Kurds now fighting ISIS.

Reckless, Not Careless

Earlier this week Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's finance minister called Merkel "careless". I responded Schäuble Accuses Merkel of "Careless Actions" Warns Germany Faces "Avalanche" of Refugees; Reckless not Careless.

"Reckless" is clearly the word, as the whole world can now see. One cannot stop every terrorist attack of course. However, inviting terrorists with open arms is another thing indeed. And that's precisely what Merkel's absurd policy of welcoming Syrian refugees did.

Peak Merkel should now be obvious to everyone.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Business Inventories Rise More Than Expected; Inventory to Sales Ratio Highest in Recovery; Retailers Overestimating Demand?

Posted: 13 Nov 2015 11:48 AM PST

Business expectations are high and rising as measured by a new high in the inventory-to-sales ratio.

The Econoday Consensus Expectation was for no growth in inventories, but the actual result was +0.3 percent.

That rise sent the inventory-to-sales ratio to the highest point in the recovery.

Business inventories rose a higher-than-expected 0.3 percent in September on a back-up of inventories in the retail sector. The build is a plus for third-quarter GDP revisions but may not be a plus for future production and employment.

Retail inventories surged 0.8 percent in September while sales came in flat, in turn raising the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.48 from 1.47 for the highest of the recovery. Ratios across most retail subcomponents moved incrementally higher.

This report's other two components, which were previously released, include a 0.4 percent decline for factory inventories and a 0.5 percent rise for wholesales inventories.

Had this morning's retail sales report for October proved stronger, the September build for retail inventories would be no concern. But the October sales report proved soft, raising the risk that retailers may be over-estimating holiday demand.

Inventory to Sales Ratio

Retailers Overestimating Demand?

I certainly concur with the idea there is a huge risk retailers are overestimating demand. And I also concur with Bloomberg that October retail sales are "soft". In fact, retail sales have been soft for three months.

Curiously, this is what Bloomberg had to say in its Econoday Report just this morning regarding retail sales: "This report is better than it looks, showing underlying strength that shouldn't scale down expectations for a December FOMC rate hike."

I contend the retail sales report is worse than it looks, perhaps far worse than it looks. For my take, please see Retail Sales Weaker Than Expected, Led by Autos; Car Boom Ending?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Retail Sales Weaker Than Expected, Led by Autos; Car Boom Ending?

Posted: 13 Nov 2015 11:13 AM PST

This month the retail sales consensus expectation was for a 0.3% rise.

The actual reading was a gain of just 0.1% for the month. In addition, last month's retail sales were revised lower to +0.0% from an initial reading of +0.1%.

This was the third consecutive weak report.

Nonetheless Bloomberg managed to put an amazing amount of lipstick on today's report. Let's take a look.

Retail sales slowed in October but fundamentally remain solid. Sales rose only 0.1 percent, 2 tenths under the Econoday consensus. But when excluding vehicles, which slipped back after surging in prior months, and when also excluding gasoline stations, where sales once again fell on price weakness, core sales rose a respectable 0.3 percent which hits the consensus.

And there are solid gains including for housing-related components of furniture & home furnishings and building materials & garden equipment. Nonstore retailers also show a strong gain as do restaurants.

Aside from vehicles and gas, other areas that declined are electronics & appliance stores, grocery stores, and the big category of general merchandise sales. Declines in the latter may be related to import-price effects which are deflating sales. A positive, however, is a gain for department stores which are a subset of general merchandise. Apparel sales, which are definitely being held down by import prices, were unchanged following two small declines.

Year-on-year rates really tell the story especially a respectable plus 4.1 percent rate for sales excluding gasoline stations, a component that is down 20.1 percent and has been badly skewing total sales all year. Total sales are up only 1.7 percent.

The headline is weak and year-on-year rates did ease off, including for core ex-auto ex-gas to plus 3.5 from 3.8 percent, but this report is better than it looks, showing underlying strength that shouldn't scale down expectations for a December FOMC rate hike.

Retail Sales Year-Over-Year

Note that year-over-year retail sales were positive at the start of the last two recessions.

Retail Sales Components

Car Boom Ending?

The closer one looks at the data, the more obvious it is that Bloomberg put a huge amount of lipstick on its synopsis.

For the last three months combined, ex-auto retail sales are down, on average. Auto sales is one component that has propped up retail sales.

Is the decline in auto sales this month just a snap-back from the massive auto surge in September, or is it the end of the boom?

No one can answer this question now, but it should be obvious that car sales cannot boom forever. And when auto sales do turn, retail sales will no longer prop up the economy.

Today's Producer Price Index report may provide a clue in regards to weakening demand. For details, please see PPI Unexpectedly Declines Second Month; Another Big Decline Likely Next Month.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

PPI Unexpectedly Declines Second Month; Another Big Decline Likely Next Month

Posted: 13 Nov 2015 09:56 AM PST

Economists expected US strength would hold up producer prices but they have been way off the mark for two consecutive months.

Following last month's 0.5% decline the Bloomberg Economists' Consensus was for a bounce to +0.2%. Instead, the PPI declined by 0.4%, well below the lowest economist's estimate of -0.1%.

Demand for services had been holding up producer prices but not for the last two reports. PPI-FD fell an unexpected 0.4 percent in October vs Econoday expectations for a 0.2 percent gain and vs a low estimate of minus 0.1 percent. Year-on-year, prices are down a very sizable 1.6 percent. Services prices fell 0.3 percent in October following what was then an unexpected 0.4 percent decline in September. Year-on-year, services prices are up only 0.1 percent. Services are supposed to be insulated from global effects including price effects, and the downturn for this reading does not point to 2 percent target inflation anytime soon.

Energy prices were unchanged in the month but are down very sharply year-on-year, at 21.5 percent. Food prices fell 0.8 percent for a 4.2 percent year-on-year decline. Excluding food and energy, prices fell 0.3 percent for a second straight month with the year-on-year reading at plus 0.1 percent. Excluding food, energy & services, prices fell 0.1 percent with the year-on-year at plus 0.4 percent.

Finished goods readings are also very weak, down a total 0.3 percent in the month for a 4.1 percent year-on-year decline. Export prices fell 0.3 percent for a 3.7 percent on year decline.

This report, like import & export prices released earlier this week, is soft throughout and does not point to any pressure for next week's consumer price report. The employment side of the Fed's mandate may be showing pressure, but not prices, at least not yet.

$CRB - Commodities Index Daily

$CRB Commodities Detail

West Texas Crude

Crude started the month at $46.43. It is now at $40.50,down all but two days this month.

Expect Another Big Decline Next Month

The PPI sank in October despite commodities posting average increases for the month.

Given commodity prices have been hammered so far in November, expect another big PPI decline next month unless commodity prices rise, especially oil, rise sharply. Petroleum products constitute 33% of the CRB.

By the way, it's important to note that producer prices declining in the face of steady or slightly up commodities is a reflection on final demand. I suggest demand is dropping more than most economists realize.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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Friday, November 13, 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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