Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Trump vs. Fiorina vs. Obama on Isis; Fiorina and the "Law of Bad Ideas"

Posted: 03 Oct 2015 06:23 PM PDT

Carly Fiorina Seeks No-Fly Zone

In the Fox interview show below, Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina says the US should enforce a no-fly zone in Syria, even if it means shooting down Russian aircraft.

Quote of the day: "Russian jets have been basically conducting dangerous and unpredictable maneuvers around our waters and our borders and our territory".

Can I have a definition of "our" territory please?

The closest I can find is U.S. to file complaint over 'unsafe' intercept by Russian fighter jet. That was an incident over the Baltic Sea, near Poland.

The other side of the story is Invading the Black Sea: Washington's belligerent military maneuvers in traditional Russian territory.

And what about NATO Conducts Military Maneuvers 300 Yards From Russia's Border?

So who's provoking whom?

But let's return to the main story. What right does the US have to enforce a no-fly zone over Syria?

Quite frankly this woman is a dangerous war-monger, at best. She is totally unfit to be president.

Obama Goes After Putin

The Financial Times reports Obama Attacks Putin Over Syrian Air Strikes.

Russia is being pulled into a "quagmire" in Syria and its military intervention is likely to boost the Islamist militants of Isis, a defiant President Barack Obama said on Friday after a week when his own approach to the Syrian conflict has faced intense scrutiny.

"An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire, and it won't work," he said. "They will be there for a while if they don't take a different course."

Quagmire Irony

The irony of Obama's statement should stand out like a mile. The US is in a Mideast quagmire of its own making starting with Bush and continued by Obama.

Besides, why should we give a damn if Russia gets stuck in a Syrian quagmire? Does Russia give a hoot that the US is stuck in quagmires in Iraq and Afghanistan? Is Obama that much of a caring person that he is concerned about 'Putinesque" quagmires?

Speaking at the White House, Obama also said that some of his domestic critics who were calling for a more direct American intervention in the Syrian civil war were peddling "half-baked solutions" and "mumbo-jumbo".

It's difficult to say precisely who that paragraph is aimed at, but if if it's Fiorina, then we can take some consolation in the fact that Obama's policies are at least to some degree, not as idiotic as hers.

Let Russia fight ISIS in Syria

On September 29, Donald Trump said 'Let Russia fight ISIS' in Syria.

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump said the United States should let Russia fight it out against the Islamic State terrorist group in Syria, saying Syrian President Bashar Assad looks better to him than the alternative.

'Why are we knocking ISIS and yet at the same time we're against Assad?' Let them fight, take over the remnants. But more importantly, let Russia fight ISIS, if they want to fight 'em … in Syria," Mr. Trump said.

"Let Syria and ISIS fight. Why do we care?" he said.

"We have to get rid of ISIS, very importantly, but I look at Assad, and Assad to me looks better than the other side," he said. "And you know, this has happened before. We back a certain side, and that side turns out to be a total catastrophe. Russia likes Assad, seemingly, a lot — let them worry about ISIS. Let them fight it out."

Bingo!

I do not agree with all of Trump's statements on ISIS, but he hits the nail squarely on the head here.

The real problem is US policy.

We took out Saddam Husein, a secular ruler, and put in place a religious puppet who increased tensions between Shiites and Sunnis giving rise to religious warfare and the very creation of ISIS.

Make no mistake, ISIS is a US creation. And Both ISIS and Al Qaeda rebels seek to overthrow Assad.

Realistically, Russia wants to fight ISIS and we should either welcome that stance or be neutral to it. But Obama doesn't like the tact Russia has taken.

The US supports Al Qaeda rebels because the US wants to get rid of Syrian president Assad. Russia's way to fight ISIS is to take on Al Qaeda.

History Lesson

Please recall that one of the justifications the US used to topple Hussein was the lie Iraq harbored Al Qaeda. In reality, Al Qaeda did not exist in any extent in Iraq before we topped Hussein, but does now.

And the US is now aligned with Al Qaeda because we would rather get rid of Assad than fight ISIS, even though ISIS is a far bigger threat. That is how blatantly stupid US policy has become.

Law of Bad Ideas Revisited

The Law of Bad Ideas says that no matter how stupid an idea is, someone will propose something worse.

Specifically, Corollary Number Five to the Law of Bad Ideas states "No idea is so bad it cannot be made worse."

Sure enough, along comes Fiorina, willing to get into a military battle with Russia to support blatantly stupid US policies.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Robot Taxis Starting 2016 in Japan; Self-Driving Trucks on German Autobahn; Millions of Truck and Taxi Driver Jobs will Vanish in US by 2025

Posted: 03 Oct 2015 12:18 PM PDT

I predicted robot taxis and trucks by 2020. Most doubted it, but I maintained I was as likely to be too late as opposed to too early.

The future has arrived, at least in Japan. Autonomous taxis will operate in test mode next year with a goal of full production by 2020.

Reader Alain writes ...

"Hey Mish, I saw this article and it reminded me of your self-driving cars posts some time ago. When I read your posts I thought your time frame on their arrival seemed a bit optimistic. But here we are."

Robot Taxis Starting 2016 in Japan

The Wall Street Journal reports RoboCab: Driverless Taxi Experiment to Start in Japan

From the country where hotels are operated by robots and androids serve as clerks at department stores comes the latest unmanned project: the robot cab.

Japan's cabinet office, Kanagawa prefecture and Robot Taxi Inc. on Thursday said they will start experimenting with unmanned taxi service beginning in 2016. The service will be offered for approximately 50 people in Kanagawa prefecture, just south of Tokyo, with the auto-driving car carrying them from their homes to local grocery stores.

According to the project organizers, the cabs will drive a distance of about three kilometers (two miles), and part of the course will be on major avenues in the city. Crew members will be aboard the car during the experiment in case there is a need to avoid accidents.

Robot Taxi Inc., a joint venture between mobile Internet company DeNA Co. and vehicle technology developer ZMP Inc., is aiming to commercialize its driverless transportation service by 2020. The company says it will seek to offer unmanned cabs to users including travelers from overseas and locals in areas where buses and trains are not available.

The project is a part of the government's effort to promote innovation and startup businesses.
Among companies trying to turn driverless cars into business is Google Inc., which started testing its system in Texas in July.

Robot Taxis Image

Image: Miho Inada/The Wall Street Journal

Note the car still has a steering wheel. That steering wheel will be gone by 2020.

Self-Driving Trucks on German Autobahn

Self-driving trucks in real conditions are on highways in Germany. It's just a test, but it won't take five years for live operation.

Truck Yeah! reports Daimler's Autonomous Truck Successfully Completed Its Maiden Voyage On A Public Highway.

Following up on their American Adventures, Mercedes successfully tested its semi-autonomous Highway Pilot system on the German Autobahn. This technology can be fitted into regular production trucks and is a huge step towards fully autonomous transportation.

The Federal State of Baden-Württemberg set Daimler Trucks loose on its highways, showing the world that the technology is pretty much production ready despite the missing legal context surrounding autonomous vehicles.

At this stage, the driver remains in control despite the truck accelerating, braking and steering on its own, but Daimler says humans can never drive as efficiently as the robot does, and since the aim is to minimize fuel consumption while improving traffic flow, driverless transportation is what we're looking at in the long run.

Also consider Daimler Tests Self-Driving Truck on German Highway

German automaker Daimler said it trialled a self-driving truck under real traffic conditions for the first time Friday, on a motorway in southern Germany.

The standard Mercedes-Benz Actros, fitted with the intelligent "Highway Pilot" system, travelled 14 kilometres (about nine miles) on the A8 motorway, with a driver in the cabin but his hands off the wheel.

The truck in Friday's trial, the world's first series-production autonomous truck, drove between Stuttgart and the town of Denkendorf in the southwestern state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, where Daimler is headquartered.

State premier Winfried Kretschmann of the Greens party, who was also along for the ride, said "partially autonomous and autonomous driving indicates that a new age of mobility is dawning".

"Autonomously driving and networked vehicles improve the flow of traffic and can play a decisive role in helping to avoid traffic jams and relieving the strain on drivers," he said in a statement. "They also boost traffic safety."

Daimler says autonomous trucks improve efficiency and cut carbon emissions. Thanks to optimised gear shifting, acceleration and braking, they generate at least five percent fewer CO2 emissions, said the company.

Daimler, whose vehicles include the high-end Mercedes-Benz range and compact Smart cars, is also the world's biggest maker of trucks with brands including Mercedes-Benz, Freightliner, Fuso and BharatBenz.

Snowball Action

This is likely to snowball much faster than I expected two years ago.

And as I have stated numerous times, millions of truck driving and taxi driving jobs will vanish by 2025 at the latest.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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Saturday, October 3, 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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