Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Hedge Funds Net-Short Gold First Time in History; Contrarian Views Posted: 24 Jul 2015 01:52 PM PDT After being net long all the way from $1900 to $1100, Bloomberg reports Hedge Funds Are Holding First-Ever Gold Net-Short Position. Hedge funds are holding the first ever bet on a decline in gold prices since the U.S. government started collecting the data in 2006. The funds and other speculators shifted to a net-short position of 11,345 contracts in New York futures and options in the week ended July 21, according to figures from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Gold futures on Friday fell to the lowest since 2010 on the Comex, and the short wagers show investors expect the rout to deepen. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Jeffrey Currie says the worst is yet to come for gold, and that prices could fall below $1,000 an ounce for the first time since 2009. "The risks are clearly skewed to the downside," Currie, the bank's New York-based head of commodities research, said in a phone interview Tuesday. Currie isn't alone in predicting more declines. ABN Amro Bank NV's Georgette Boele and Robin Bhar of Societe Generale AG say bullion will approach $1,000 by December. Contrarian Views From a contrarian point of view, this sure seems like good news to me. Also, my friend Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog pinged me with this thought: "Yesterday, the entire gold futures curve out to December traded in backwardation to cash. This is never supposed to happen in gold, and is a sign that physical demand is far stronger than futures prices would indicate." Strong negative sentiment is a prerequisite for a strong rally. It would be far worse if everyone was bullish during this decline. However, and as I have noted before, sentiment is not a timing issue. And to answer reader questions in advance, I am still holding. If I were to do anything here it would be to add. I still like the long-term prospects. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

New Home Sales Unexpectedly Decline 6.8%, April and May Revised Lower; Writers Still Upbeat Posted: 24 Jul 2015 09:18 AM PDT New home sales unexpectedly plunged 6.8% to 482,000 annualized units, far below any Bloomberg Consensus Estimate. Volatility is common for new home sales and there's plenty of it the June report where the headline plunged 6.8 percent to a far lower-than-expected annual rate of 482,000 and where revisions erased 40,000 from the prior two months. But there is some good news in the report and that's a surge in supply of new homes on the market, up 3.4 percent in the month to 215,000. Greater supply points to greater sales ahead. On a sales basis, supply is at 5.4 months vs 4.8 and 4.7 in June and May. Prices look soft in the report, at a median $281,800 which is up 0.5 percent in the month but down 1.8 percent year-on-year. The latter reading points to deep discounting compared to the year-on-year sales gain of 18.1 percent. Regional data show big drops in the West and the Midwest in the month and a smaller drop in the South. But the Northeast is showing life with a second straight solid gain. Year-on-year, the South and Northeast lead with respective sales gains of 23.7 and 23.1 percent with the West and Midwest lagging at 10.9 and 5.7 percent. Key Numbers The Bloomberg consensus range was 535,000 to 570,000 annualized. The consensus estimate was 550,000 (over-optimistic by 68,000).  Actual new home sales were 482,000.   May was revised from 546,000 to 517,000 (downward revision of 29,000). April was revised lower by 11,000. Seven Month Low Reuters reports New home Sales at Seven-Month Low. New U.S. single-family home sales fell in June to their lowest level in seven months and May's sales were revised sharply lower, in what appeared to be a minor setback for the housing market recovery. New home sales dropped 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 482,000 units, the lowest level since last November, the Commerce Department said. May's sales pace was revised down to 517,000 units from the previously reported 546,000 units. "You never want to see the data regress, but we remain optimistic that we're still on a long-term upward trajectory," said Tom Wind, vice president of home lending at EverBank in Jacksonville, Florida. Despite two straight months of declines in new home sales, the overall housing market recovery remains intact. Writers Upbeat Reuters called this a "minor setback", further stating the "overall housing market recovery remains intact." Is the recovery intact? How could the writer possibly know? Bloomberg says "Greater supply points to greater sales ahead." Is that what greater supply points to, or does it point to builder over-optimism coupled with another round of homes built on spec in hope that buyers show up later? Which is it? How could the Bloomberg writer possibly know? While pondering those questions, let's put a little perspective on new home sales and new homes for sale. New One-Family Homes Sold New One Family Homes for Sale That's "the good news" in perspective. Problems With the Good News Scenario The key problem with these upbeat forecasts is that homes are not affordable for the one set of buyers that matter most: millennials. Millennial family formation is low because of student debt overhang, low wages, high prices, and changing attitudes. In regards to changing attitudes, millennials have seen what debt has done to their parents and do not want to follow the same path. Millions have moved back home with their parents because that's all they can afford. And instead of chasing the suburban dream like their parents, millions more prefer to live in cities close to where they work. To top it off, mortgage rates have been rising. Fed rate hikes may push rates even higher. And the higher rates go, the less house one can afford. Yet, allegedly the housing recovery is "intact". Is it? How can anyone possibly know? Here's one thing we do know: This report will shave a bit off 2nd quarter GDP estimates. It will also give the Fed another reason to not hike in September. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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