Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Target to Hire 18,000 Fewer Seasonal Workers This Holiday Season; Expect Other Retailers to Do the Same
Mortgage Delinquencies Hit New Record High In Spain; Builder Default Rate Hits 29%; Recovery? Really?
Scranton, Pennsylvania Careens Towards Bankruptcy; Real Whiff of Union Priorities; Reflections on Municipal Bonds
Grand Fantasy

Target to Hire 18,000 Fewer Seasonal Workers This Holiday Season; Expect Other Retailers to Do the Same

Posted: 20 Sep 2013 12:59 PM PDT

For the alleged reason of efficiency, Target to hire fewer seasonal holiday workers.

Target (TGT) plans to hire about 70,000 seasonal workers for the holiday shopping season, down about 20 percent from a year ago. The discounter is aiming to be more efficient in its hiring practices.

The move to hire 18,000 fewer temporary holiday workers versus last year's 88,000 comes as the Minneapolis-based chain saw that its own permanent employees wanted to get first dibs on working extra hours for the holiday season.

Target Corp. said it also wants to respond more quickly to the peaks and valleys of customer traffic, which have become more pronounced for many stores as shoppers time their buying for when they believe they can get the best deals.

"We're getting smarter in terms of anticipating how many resources we need when guests are really going to be shopping the hardest," said Jodee Kozlak, Target's executive vice president of human resources.

Kozlak said that Target workers want to work extra holiday hours because they enjoy helping out during the busy holiday season, and they want to make extra money for family gifts. She added that Target employees who choose to work extra for the holiday seasons can add anywhere from 5 percent to 10 percent to their working hours compared with a year ago.

Efficiency or Lack of Demand?

Is the move by Target based on efficiency or lack of demand?

Here is the telling statement "Target lowered their expectations for the rest of the year, citing a tougher-than-expected spending environment."

Expect other retailers to follow. Lack of demand is not Target-specific.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mortgage Delinquencies Hit New Record High In Spain; Builder Default Rate Hits 29%; Recovery? Really?

Posted: 20 Sep 2013 12:03 PM PDT

Readers know I have been extremely skeptical of reports that Spain is in some sort of economic recovery.

For example, on September 18th I commented Spain on Track to Meet Budget Targets Says Economy Minister; Data Strongly Suggests Otherwise

Recovery Nonsense

Today, more evidence is in that recovery talk is pure nonsense. Via translation from El Economista, please consider Questions Regarding the Banking Improvement

The widespread expectations that the Spanish banking has begun its recovery were seriously questioned on Wednesday with July arrears data. The overall delinquency rate hit a new record high in 12% (and clearly exceed 14% if you include the credit transferred to the bad bank ), with the rate reaching for promoters a terrible 31%.

But more worrying is the escalation in mortgage delinquencies which reached 5% for the first time. This is a very strong acceleration, since a year ago this rate was at 3.23%.

"The Spanish stop eating before you stop paying the mortgage" is a well known topic. Well now this argument is floundering on the evidence.

The builder default rate has reached 29% in the amount of 18.624 billion euros. Growth in builder defaults has a lot to do to reclassify restrictions imposed by the Bank of Spain. This phenomenon will continue in the coming months, because until September 30 banks do not have to start formally adopt reclassification measures.

Well fancy that. Delinquencies have been understated and the lies are just now admitted.

Actually, that's progress. But let me ask: How much more "progress" is coming?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Scranton, Pennsylvania Careens Towards Bankruptcy; Real Whiff of Union Priorities; Reflections on Municipal Bonds

Posted: 20 Sep 2013 08:16 AM PDT

With public unions threatening to seize Scranton assets including fire trucks, how long will it take for Scranton to do the smart thing and declare bankruptcy?

The Times-Tribune reports Scranton police/fire unions get $21M judgment against city; may seize assets to collect.

Scranton's police and fire unions have received a judgment against the city for the overdue $21 million that the city owes the unions from a landmark arbitration ruling.

The money was due July 2, but the city has not yet paid and is still seeking borrowing or selling an asset to honor the bill, Mayor Chris Doherty said.

But the judgment means the unions now can seize city assets and sell them to collect what is owed, said city solicitor Paul Kelly and the unions' attorney, Thomas Jennings.

"Whenever a judgment is granted, you can go to the sheriff and levy against assets," Mr. Kelly said. "They (the unions) can sell city assets. They can sell firetrucks, garbage trucks - they can sell City Hall."

Mr. Jennings said, "Do I want to take firetrucks and City Hall? Of course not. But would I do it if I have to? In a New York minute."

Real Whiff of Union Priorities

Consider a comment to the article by KMCG who says ... "At least now we are getting a real whiff of union priorities. Years of controlling City Hall through weak mayors, outrageous health care benefits, salaries that are double and triple the average Scrantonian's salaries, overtime scams, longevity pay, fat pensions....the list is endless. And when there's nothing left after they've picked the bones of the city's coffers for decades, they look to seize assets? I can hear them licking their greedy, greasy fingers now."

Indeed. But it is not just greedy unions. It takes two to tango. Greedy politicians willfully entered into devilish bargains with unions to get reelected.

That is neither here nor there right now. And to throw still more cliches into the mix, it's all water over the dam.

Best Way Forward

Scranton must decide - and soon - the best way forward. And so must the unions.

In that regard, I suggest to the city of Scranton: file bankruptcy immediately, before the union seizes assets.

Reflections on Municipal Bonds

As I have said repeatedly, if you are a municipal bond investor, please be careful. Cities can and will file for bankruptcy.

For further reading, please consider Fiscal Crisis in Chicago: Pensions 31% Funded, Moody's Downgrades Debt 3 Notches, Pension Liability is $61,000 Per Household; Mish's Proposed Solutions

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Grand Fantasy

Posted: 20 Sep 2013 12:46 AM PDT

As I watch the latest polls from Germany there are numerous outcomes, none of which will be pleasing to chancellor Angela Merkel, except outright victory by CDU/CSU +- FDP.

If anything but a CDU/CSU +- FDP majority happens, the chancellor will face seriously unwelcome choices.

For example: Reader Bernd pinged me with this comment yesterday "I just watched the last TV discussion. SPD has made it clear that EUROBONDS will be part and parcel of the package, if they come in with a coalition. Merkel was dead set against those up to now. Grand Coalition ??"

Indeed. Recall that Merkel is dead set against Eurobonds. Also recall eurobonds are against the German constitution.

And what is the price to pay for other coalitions?

Grand Coalition or Grand Fantasy?

A close friend continually points out: the German population wants a "Grand Coalition". And I agree with his assessment. But politically speaking, how stable would it be?

That is Merkel's concern, and that is why she is on a public campaign for voters to not split their votes.

But what if that is not good enough?

Latest Polls

Here are the latest polls.

As INSA reports things, there are numerous possibilities.

Give or take a mere 1-2% there are many possibilities.

CDU/CSU + SPD (the "Grand Coalition")
CDU/CSU + AFD
CDU/CSU + FDP
CDU/CSU + AFD +FDP
SPD + GRUE + Die Linke

The only coalition that does not pose serious problems for Merkel is #3: CDU/CSU + FDP.

Mainstream Media Finally Catches On!

I have been talking about these issues since March. On September 19, CNBC finally reports Anti-euro party powers ahead as German elections near.

With just days to go until Germans head to the polls, the likelihood of Chancellor Angela Merkel retaining her crown grows ever larger. But Germany's establishment could still be in for a shock.

On Thursday, the anti-euro Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) hit the 5 percent threshold for the first time that parties need to gain a seat in parliament, according to an INSA poll. The poll suggested Merkel may not be able to re-form her center-right coalition with the liberal FDP.

The poll gave Merkel's CDU/CSU coalition 38 percent of the vote, while the FDP got 6 percent. Their combined 44 percent would not give them a majority in parliament.

If the AfD makes it into parliament and the current liberal coalition partners don't, the party could prove a headache for Merkel. She will be faced with tough talks to form a new "grand" coalition and would have to join forces with Steinbrueck's SPD.

The margin of error on these polls is +-3% and given the 5% threshold, that makes many of the polls useless.

But notice the trend. And the trend by media was to completely ignore the possibility that AfD would make it into parliament.

The secondary trend assumption was that a "Grand Coalition" was likely.

While a "Grand Coalition" is possible, it is not a given, just as I have stated. And if it does happen, it will not be stable, as demand after demand will be placed on Merkel.

Biggest Political Chameleon in History

Of course Merkel could be ready and willing to sell voters straight down the river. Otherwise, some major compromises are in store.

The above discussion assumes that Merkel is really against Eurobonds except as a matter of political expediency. Is she? Or will the biggest political chameleon in history change colors once again?

Barring an outright majority by CDU/CSU + FDP, we may soon find out.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Friday, September 20, 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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