Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• An Analysis of July Employment Numbers 1955 to 2013; Full-Time Employment Down Over 5 Million Since 2007
• World’s lightest and thinnest circuits pave the way for "imperceptible electronics"; Man vs. Machine Comparison
• IMF "Baseline Scenario" Projects Spain Unemployment Will Remain Above 25% for 5 Years with Little Growth

An Analysis of July Employment Numbers 1955 to 2013; Full-Time Employment Down Over 5 Million Since 2007 Posted: 03 Aug 2013 08:26 PM PDT Reader Tim Wallace provides another excellent set of graphs on employment as shown below. Full-Time Employment click on any chart for sharper image Full time employment is actually now 5.17 million below the 2007 level. Total employment is 2.2 million below the 2007 level in spite of 13 million more people of working age. Part-Time Employment Wallace writes: "The past five years are near or above the previous all time high set back in 1982. These five years are all in that abysmal range. No other year comes close. I expect things will get worse as the year continues." Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

World’s lightest and thinnest circuits pave the way for "imperceptible electronics"; Man vs. Machine Comparison Posted: 03 Aug 2013 09:12 AM PDT The latest news from RoboHub shows World's lightest and thinnest circuits pave the way for 'imperceptible electronics'. Researchers from Asia and Europe have developed the world's lightest and thinnest organic circuits, which in the future could be used in a range of healthcare applications. The new flexible touch sensor is the world's thinnest, lightest and people cannot feel the existence of this device. The circuits are extremely lightweight, flexible, durable and thin, and conform to any surface. They are just 2 microns thick, just 1/5 that of kitchen wrap, and weighing only 3g/m^2, are 30 times lighter than office paper. They also feature a bend radius of 5 microns, meaning they can be scrunched up into a ball, without breaking. Due to these properties the researchers have dubbed them "imperceptible electronics", which can be placed on any surface and even worn without restricting the users movement. The integrated circuits are manufactured on rolls of one micron thick plastic film, making them easily scalable and cheap to produce. And if the circuit is placed on a rubber surface it becomes stretchable, able to withstand up to 233% tensile strain, while retaining full functionality. "This is a very convenient way of making electronics stretchable because you can fabricate high performance devices in a flat state and then just transfer them over to a stretchable substrate and create something that is very compliant and stretchable just by a simple pick and place process." Video on "Imperceptible Electronics" Link if video does not play: Imperceptible Electronics Carl the Robot Serves Drinks In case you missed it, please consider Carl the Robot Bartender Mixes Drinks and Chats With Customers Also note that Farm Robots to Make Migrant Worker Vegetable Pickers Obsolete; Welcome the "Lettuce Bot", the "Grape Bot", the "Strawberry Bot" Man vs. Machine Perspective For comparison purposes, a Facebook video shows "Humans are Awesome". Play the video for a very entertaining perspective on what Robots are up against. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com  Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

IMF "Baseline Scenario" Projects Spain Unemployment Will Remain Above 25% for 5 Years with Little Growth Posted: 03 Aug 2013 03:50 AM PDT I am normally critical of IMF forecasts, but their baseline unemployment projection for Spain of 25% or more with no more than .6% annual growth through 2017 seems reasonable. The pessimistic scenario is a toxic deleveraging downward spiral that continues right now. The optimistic scenario assumes 2% growth, but that scenario does not start until 2018, and only if labor reforms in Spain and Europe take place. Via Mish-modified Google translate from El Economista, please consider IMF estimates that Spain will grow by an average of 0.6% over the next five years The team led by James Daniel, Chief of Mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to Spain, estimates unemployment, which will remain above 25% over the next five years. Ignoring the 1.6% downturn that the IMF expects the country to suffer this year, the average growth for the Spanish economy between 2014 and 2018 will be 0.6%. GDP growth will remain below 1% until 2017 and thereafter only begin to expand beyond these levels. In 2018, the optimistic scenario in which reforms (both from Spain and Europe) are accelerated and gain ground would result in an acceleration of growth of 2% in 2018 and a significant increase in employment. The pessimistic scenario starts immediately if deleveraging pressures and financial difficulties intensify. This scenario would create a toxic spiral between macro and financial context and would leave the public and private debt at high levels in the future, the country would not grow until 2017, and unemployment would remain above 27%. The baseline scenario suggests Spain will probably start to grow later this year, in the third or fourth quarter, but that's not important. "The really important question is whether Spain will grow enough to create a lot of jobs to reduce the unacceptably high unemployment and increasing family income". Unfortunately, growth will not be strong and have to generate a lot more work. Reducing unemployment requires action in many areas, including from Europe, "specifically on labor issues." The head of the IMF Mission explained that to ensure job creation Spain needs a further increase in wage flexibility, improvement in training for the unemployed, reduced taxes and elimination of regulations that discourage hiring. The Fund criticizes the adjustment burden continues to fall on employment (temporary and youth especially) instead of wages. It therefore recommends a social pact in which employers commit to hiring increases in exchange for wage cuts of up to 10% over the next two years. According to the IMF, these measures should be accompanied by a reduction in employers' contributions to social security and VAT increased two years of pay cuts. IMF Proposes Spain Reduce Wages by 10% in Two Years Via Google translate, La Vanguardia reports IMF Proposes Spain Reduce Wages by 10% in Two Years The IMF said today that it would be beneficial to Spain a social pact in which employers commit to hiring increases in exchange for wage cuts in agency models would be 10% in two years. These measures should be accompanied by a reduction in employers' contributions to social security and VAT increased two years after wage cuts, according to the annual report on the Spanish economy published today by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). IMF urges Spain to "greatly reduce the number of contracts", reviving the idea advocated by some analysts and agencies to establish "a permanent contract with lower firing costs initially and gradually increase with seniority." IMF Silliness Hiking the VAT is ridiculous, hiring commitments are ridiculous, and although lowering wages is likely a good idea, the free market should set rates, not government bureaucrats who have no idea what wages should be. The best way for Spain to reduce its deficit is not by hiking the VAT, but by getting rid of government bureaucrats and lowering pension benefits for government workers.  IMF Projections Projections 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Gross domestic product -3.7 -0.3 0.4 -1.4 -1.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 Unemployment rate (percent) 18.0 20.1 21.7 25.0 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.3 Deficit as Percent of GDP -11.2 -9.7 -9.0 -7.0 -6.7 -5.9 -5.1 -4.2 -3.3 -2.3 The above table condensed from IMF Executive Board Concludes 2013 Article IV Consultation with Spain Note that the IMF does not think Spain will reduce its deficit below 3% until 2018. Prime Minister Rajoy thinks the deficit will be 2.7% by 2016. Recall that in April of 2012, Rajoy projected 3% by 2013. 2016 is fantasy-land material as well. Even the IMF projection is highly optimistic (at best). Spain may return to growth for a brief while later this year, but don't expect many jobs out of it. Spain needs labor reform, work rule reform, pension reform and lower taxes. So does France, Greece, Italy, and the rest of Europe. Unfortunately, Brussels is likely to demand higher taxes, and the unions are likely to resist the needed reforms. A further downward spiral is not out of the question, but neither is stagnation and zero growth  (lower than the baseline scenario of the IMF). The optimistic scenario is five years away at the earliest, and unlikely at that, unless unions suddenly give in to badly needed reforms and/or some strong political leader can force free-market policies over substantial opposition. In the meantime, who knows what crazy rules the Nannycrats in Brussels are likely to come up with? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com  Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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