Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Fed Chairman Update: Odds Shift Heavily Towards Tweedle-Dum vs. Tweedle-Dee
• Egypt Ponders Banning the Brotherhood to "Protect the State"; Court Frees Ousted President Hosni Mubarak from Prison
• Government Spending as Percentage of GDP; Federal Deficit as Percentage of Revenue
• Celebrating Life; Greetings From Prague

Fed Chairman Update: Odds Shift Heavily Towards Tweedle-Dum vs. Tweedle-Dee Posted: 19 Aug 2013 10:25 PM PDT In Tweedle Dum vs. Tweedle Dee; Does Janet Yellen Have What It Takes? I made the case it did not matter much whether Larry Summers of Janet Yellen was the next Fed chairperson. Here is a recap: Tweedle Dum vs. Tweedle Dee The only candidate that makes sense is the candidate who will set a target date to end the Fed. Unfortunately, no such candidate is on the short list. The choice is between Tweedle-Dee who rates to slosh money around even more than Bernanke in a futile effort to create jobs, and Tweedle-Dum who will do whatever Wall Street wants. Practically speaking, is there really a difference? The "Dums" Have It Last week I thought it was something on the order of 50-50 (Tweedle-Dee heads we lose vs. Tweedle-Dum tails we lose) since both potential nominees are losers. I now think it's more likely a case of Tweedle-Dum tails we lose, with Larry Summers playing the role of Tweedle-Dum. I changed my 50-50 lose-lose stance to a 65-35 lose-lose stance after reading Obama Focuses on Risk of New Bubble Undermining Broad Recovery. President Barack Obama, who took office amid the collapse of the last financial bubble, wants to make sure his economic recovery doesn't generate the next one. Obama this month spoke four times in five days of the need to avoid what he called "artificial bubbles," even in an economy that's growing at just a 1.7 percent rate and where employment and factory usage remain below pre-recession highs. "We have to turn the page on the bubble-and-bust mentality that created this mess," he said in his Aug. 10 weekly radio address. Why the Odds Changed Yellen has all but guaranteed she will keep the money flowing faster than Bernanke, and coupled with the above warning from Obama about asset bubbles, the odds shift heavily towards Tweedle-Dum as Obama's choice. Don't Fret, It Does Not Matter Some will be delighted by this, others severely disappointed. But I am here to ease your mind. It does not matter. They will be equally horrendous. The timing may change slightly , but the outcome won't. "We have to turn the page on the bubble-and-bust mentality that created this mess" said Obama. Mish says "It's too late" the Fed has already re-blown bubbles in both stocks and bonds. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Egypt Ponders Banning the Brotherhood to "Protect the State"; Court Frees Ousted President Hosni Mubarak from Prison Posted: 19 Aug 2013 12:54 PM PDT Court Frees Ousted President Hosni Mubarak Violence has escalated in Egypt and a couple of new complications are in the works. Please consider Egypt Defense Chief Says Army Will Fight to Protect State. A Cairo court ordered ousted President Hosni Mubarak freed from prison, a move that could complicate Egypt's increasingly violent political transition, while militants in Sinai killed 26 policemen. The Cairo criminal court's order to free Mubarak threatens to inject new tensions in a nation convulsed by unrest that has killed almost 1,000 in the past six days. His potential release may spur arguments by the Muslim Brotherhood and others locked in a standoff with the government that the military-installed leaders want to restore the kind of police state Mubarak led. "The fact that we're fighting the Brotherhood doesn't mean we'll allow the return of the Mubarak regime, simply because both regimes are two sides of the same coin," said Islam Hammam, a leader of the Tamarod group. The court ruling comes at a difficult time for the government. International censure has mounted since it cleared out two pro-Mursi protest camps in the Cairo area on Aug. 14, touching off a cycle of violence from which the country has yet to emerge. About 900 civilians and 100 policemen have died since the camps were stormed. In Sinai today, militants armed with rocket-propelled grenades killed 25 policemen near the border with the Gaza Strip. The Interior Ministry, in an e-mailed statement, described the incident as a "continuation of the terrorist crimes in Sinai." Hours earlier, at least 36 Muslim Brotherhood members were reported killed during what the Interior Ministry said was an attempt to escape from custody while en route to prison. The cabinet said in a statement that security forces responded after prisoners took a police officer hostage. There was no way to reconcile the reports. Brotherhood Ban Considered The government is currently considering banning the Brotherhood. Hundreds of its members have been detained. Imams who criticize the army or state institutions in their sermons may be suspended, Ahram Gate reported, citing a statement from the ministry of religious endowments. Powder Keg Setup Inflation is rampant The Muslim Brotherhood wants back in power Mubarak wants back in power The Brotherhood and Mubarak hate each other and both dislike the military Criticizing the state is illegal Civil war is underway Prepare for the civil war to escalate. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Government Spending as Percentage of GDP; Federal Deficit as Percentage of Revenue Posted: 19 Aug 2013 10:32 AM PDT Here are a few charts from reader Tim Wallace on spending, the deficit, and GDP. Federal Spending as a Percentage of GDP Spending and GDP in U.S. Dollars Deficit Compared to Revenue Wallace writes ... Hello Mish 1. In the past 48 years we have averaged about 19.3% of GDP in federal spending. Since 2009, federal spending has averaged 22.7% of GDP. 2. The second chart shows 4th quarter GDP numbers along with the federal spending numbers. Note the huge surge in 2009 which has never been pulled back. 3. The last chart shows deficits as a percentage of revenue. Historically, the average is 17.5%. Since 2009 however, 52.7% of spending has been deficit spending. 57 cents of of every dollar spent was borrowed. My contention is that there has not been an economic recovery, just deficit spending by government to cover up failed economic policies. Tim Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Celebrating Life; Greetings From Prague Posted: 19 Aug 2013 08:44 AM PDT Greetings from Prague, the capital and largest city of the Czech Republic. Actually, I am now back in the states, having returned from a fantastic European trip with Liz, on a delayed honeymoon following our June wedding. Here are some images from Prague that I would like to share. Click on any image for larger, sharper view. Prague Old Town Historic Square Prague Old Town Historic Square Charles Bridge and Pražský Hrad (Prague Castle) Fireworks Over Charles Bridge Stained Glass Windows in St. Vitus Cathedral Liz in front of St. Vitus Cathedral Nightime Scene from Charles Bridge Liz and Mish Dining at Hotel U Zlatého Stromu On a 12-day European trip, we also traveled to Munich and Rothenburg ob der Tauber in Germany. I will post some images from Germany shortly. Celebrating Life I met Liz through Selective Search as noted in my June post Celebrating Life: I Got Married on Friday. Please click on the previous link for more on our story, how we met, and images from some trips we took in June shortly before we were married. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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