Thursday, July 4, 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Big Brother Français; Don't Worry It's Only "Alegal"; Mish Defiines "Alegal"

Posted: 04 Jul 2013 10:20 PM PDT

It did not take too long to discover that France operates its own "Big Brother" network gathering systems after demanding explanations from the US.

The Financial Times reports Veil lifted on France's 'Big Brother' Network.
France operates an "immense" surveillance system of telephone, email and internet traffic similar to the US operation revealed last month by whistleblower Edward Snowden, Le Monde newspaper reported on Thursday.

Like the systems apparently operated by the National Security Agency in the US, the DGSE surveillance covers the identity, place, date, duration and "weight" of telephone calls, but not the content.

Similarly, the "metadata" of text messages, faxes, emails and "all internet activity" on networks run by companies such as Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Apple and Yahoo are collected, Le Monde said.

President François Hollande reacted sharply to Mr Snowden's allegations that the NSA had spied on EU and European offices, including the French embassy in Washington.

He said such activities were "unacceptable" and should "cease immediately". He has called for a full explanation from the US government, linking any progress on key EU-US trade talks due to start next week to full disclosure from Washington.

Paris insisted it does not spy on its allies, but Mr Hollande's outburst raised some sceptical eyebrows among the diplomatic community in the French capital.

Le Monde said the DGSE system was conducted with "complete discretion, at the margins of legality and outside all serious control".

It quoted Bernard Barbier, technical director of the DGSE, as saying at public seminars that France "probably has the biggest information centre in Europe after the English".
"Margins of Legality"

Let's turn our attention to a Google translation from Le Monde Révélations sur le Big Brother français.
If the revelations about the U.S. spying program Prism led a chorus of indignation in Europe , France, she did minor quibbles. For two good reasons: Paris already knew. And does the same thing.

The World is able to prove that the Directorate General for External Security (DGSE, the services special) systematically collect electromagnetic signals from computers or phones in France, as well as flows between French and abroad: all our communications are spied. All e-mails, text messages, telephone records, access to Facebook , Twitter , are then stored for years.

If this huge database was used by the DGSE who officiates as outside French borders, the case is already illegal. But six other intelligence services, including the Central Directorate of Internal Intelligence (DCRI), customs or Tracfin service fight against money laundering, including the data that draw interest daily. Discreetly on the sidelines of the legality and beyond serious control. Political know perfectly, but the secret is the rule.

An Illegal Device

This Big Brother French, brother of U.S. services is illegal. However, its existence appears discreetly in parliamentary documents.

The Target: "Metadata"

DGSE and collecting the phone records of millions of subscribers - the identifier of the calling and called the place, date, time, the weight of the message. Same for mail (with possibility to read the mail subject), SMS, fax ... And all Internet activity, which involves Google , Facebook, Microsoft , Apple , Yahoo! ... This is what the parliamentary delegation intelligence rightly calls "the signals intelligence" (SIGINT), translation of SIGINT (signal intelligence) of the NSA.

Supercomputer at Boulevard Mortier

DGSE and collecting trillions of data compressed and stored in Paris, on three levels, boulevard Mortier, in the basement of the headquarters of the DGSE.

Bernard Barber then spoke of the "development of a computer-based FPGAs" (programmable logic circuits), which is "probably the biggest center computer in Europe after the English ", able to handle tens of petabytes of data - that is to say tens of millions of gigabytes. The heat generated by the computers enough to heat buildings DGSE ...

Lack of Control

The device is completely illegal - "a-legal", corrects one of the bosses of the intelligence agencies "The legal regime for security intercepts prohibited implementation by the intelligence services of such a procedure. Prism that ensures the National Commission on Informatics and Liberties ( CNIL ). Each requisition for data or interception is targeted and can not be done on a massive scale, as quantitatively as temporally. Such practices would therefore legally unfounded.
Don't Worry It's Only "Alegal"

Inquiring minds just may be interested in the Meaning of Alegal.

According to the Urban Dictionary ...
An unambiguously wrong, disruptive and often deliberately committed act for which there is not yet a specific law making that act expressly illegal. (See Extralegal) Financial and white collar crimes, such as offshore banking, misrepresenting the value of investments and temporarily selling 'junk' assets to create cashflow are prime examples of "a"legal activities. Alegality is a corollary of the distinction between amoral and imoral reasoning as applied to legality.

Broker#1: We're putting together a portfolio of failing investments so we can sell it investors then short against it and make a killing.
Broker#2: Isn't that illegal?
Broker#1: Nope, just alegal... Now lets get some lattes.
Mish Definition of Alegal

A blatantly illegal action conducted with immunity, because perpetraitors understand they will never be prosecuted or held accountable in any way.

Over the Line

On very rare occasions someone like Ollie North steps way over the line and is prosecuted. 

Please see the Iran Contra Indictments at the bottom of the above link for how prosecutions eventually pan out (numerous presidential pardons, convictions overturned, etc)

When the President Does It, That Means It's Not Illegal

In France as with the US, such spy activities are clearly illegal.  But it's easy for the spies to do whatever the hell they want because none of them will ever be prosecuted for what they do.

In the US, such activities have the approval of the Obama administration (and the preceding Bush administration as well).

And as we all know "When the President Does It, That Means It's Not Illegal"



Please play the clip. It's only 4 seconds long.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

China Declares War on French Wine

Posted: 04 Jul 2013 06:45 PM PDT

In retaliation for ridiculous EU tariffs on solar panels (sponsored mainly by France over the objections of Germany) China Declares War On Wine.

Via Mish-modified Google translate from El Economista ...
The Chinese government has decided to launch an investigation into the European wine sector with the later intention to apply a punitive tax if necessary, as China authorities accuse wine producers in the European Union (EU) of unfair trade tactics such as dumping and subsidies.

The temporary imposition of a tariff on Chinese solar panels by the EU started a trade war whose greatest victim is wine.

"This is a thorough research on European wines for export, in all formats, is bottled in barrels or in bulk," say sources familiar with the process, which warned that the wineries are going to have to face a complicated process and urgent administrative that could derail Asian exports. And that is bad news for an industry whose sales in their home markets is already complicated by the financial crisis.

Chinese authorities have given wine exporters 20 days to register as companies subject to investigation, and if they are not registered before July 21, China will automatically apply a punitive percentage.

No One Wins a Trade War

Should the EU be stupid enough to press the matter further, China would likely respond in kind.

For example China could threaten to place tariffs on cars from Germany or better yet Airbus planes (manufactured in a consortium of countries including France).

Strong retaliation might drive home the point, but don't count on it. Never underestimate the stupidity of EU bureaucrats who think they can impose their wishes on the market.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Communication Only "Tool" Left

Posted: 04 Jul 2013 11:22 AM PDT

The message on this 4th of July from Central Banks is "we will keep doing what hasn't worked and what won't ever work" until it does work.

Case Number One

In central bank case number one Draghi Says ECB Rate to Stay Low for 'Extended Period'
President Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank expects to keep interest rates low for an "extended period" as he tries to restrain market borrowing costs, in a new departure for an institution averse to setting policy in advance.

"The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time," Draghi said at a press conference in Frankfurt. "What the Governing Council did today was to inject a downward bias in interest rates for the foreseeable future. Our exit is very distant." 

The ECB chose words over deeds after an "extensive discussion" about cutting interest rates, and the support for the new language was unanimous, according to Draghi. He said the bank kept an open mind on whether to cut the deposit rate below zero.

"The Governing Council had all options on the table this month and will keep them there in case things worsen again," said Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank in London. "This time, they decided against another rate cut and decided to stage a mini revolution by introducing forward guidance instead."

Historically, Draghi and predecessor Jean-Claude Trichet have said that the ECB "never precommits" to any future monetary policy.

Draghi said the reason for taking what he called an "unprecedented" step was the ECB's expectation that the subdued outlook for inflation will extend into the medium-term amid broad-based weakness in the 17-nation euro-area economy.
Case Number Two

In central bank case number two Pound Slumps Most Since 2011 as BOE Signals Rates to Stay Low.
The pound plunged the most in almost two years against the dollar after the Bank of England signaled it will keep interest rates at a record low for longer than investors had expected.

Gilts rose and short-sterling futures jumped, indicating traders were reducing bets on higher borrowing costs. Led by new Governor Mark Carney, the central bank kept its bond-buying target at 375 billion pounds ($565 billion) and issued a statement afterwards, signaling a move toward the foward-guidance tool he favors.

Today's decision was the first by the central bank since Carney became governor on July 1. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee also left the U.K.'s main interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent.

Former Bank of Canada Governor Carney is the first foreigner to run the 319-year-old U.K. central bank. The Bank of England typically doesn't release statements after leaving policy unchanged. The decision to do so today reflects comments Carney made earlier this year to use communication, including forward guidance, as one of his policy tools.
Communication Only Tool Left

For starters none of this should be a surprise to anyone, so it's rather amusing to see S&P futures up 15 points on the news.

Carney did exactly what he said he would do as head of the Bank of England, even before he took the job. Yet, without doing anything (or even saying anything), the central banks got the reaction they wanted, at least from the stock market.

What About Lending?

Will Bank of England and ECB statements stimulate lending? After all, that's the real goal of the central banks.

Let's answer the question with more questions: Why will it? What structural problems have been solved anywhere?

And please note (mock is a better word) reliance on communication as an alleged central bank "tool".

This is akin to calling a child's toy plastic hammer a "tool" to help build a bridge. However, communication is all they have because with interest rates at 0.5% in Europe and 0.25% in the US there is almost no room to cut rates.

Here's the final question of the day: With crude already above $100 a barrel, what will happen to the price of oil if central banks achieve a modicum of growth? 

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

No comments:

Post a Comment