Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Expect What the Economists Don't Posted: 17 Jul 2013 12:47 PM PDT EU officials and economists believe that Europe can export its way to health. It cannot. As a whole, the 17 nation block runs a net trade surplus. With China slowing, with emerging markets looking anemic at best, and with a weak Japanese Yen making Japanese exports such as cars relatively attractive, precisely where are those exports supposed to go? Mars? Yesterday came the unsurprising news (to Mish readers) that Euro-Zone Exports Slump in May. The European Union's statistics agency Eurostat said Tuesday that adjusted for seasonal factors, exports from the euro zone to the rest of the world fell 2.3% from April, while imports were down 2.2%. It was the second straight month in which exports fell sharply, and the largest month-to-month fall since June 2011. Eurostat said that before seasonal adjustments, the euro zone had a trade surplus of €15.2 billion in May, up from €6.6 billion in May 2012 and €14.1 billion in April. The widening of the trade balance over the year was entirely because of a 6% drop in imports, a sign of weak domestic demand. The drop in exports to countries outside the EU was particularly sharp in Germany, falling by 9% from April. By contrast, Italian exports to non-EU countries rose by 3.6% while Spanish exports rose by 0.8%. EU Trade Year-Over-Year Compared to a year ago exports are up slightly, but I do not expect that situation to last. The slowdown in exports from Germany will put the kibosh on that silly idea. Recovery? What Recovery? Curiously "Economists at Barclays Bank said they believe the euro-zone economy grew very slightly in the second quarter and predicted a gradual recovery for the rest of the year and next. But they stressed that their forecast depends on a moderately supportive market for the currency area's exports. Should exports stall or fall, the recovery could be delayed and weaker than expected." Expect What the Economists Don't For starters there is no recovery. Secondly, there is every reason for eurozone exports to slump; there is no reason to believe hiring will pick up, and no reason for imports or internal demand to pick up in the absence of hiring. So ... Expect the recovery to be "weaker than expected". Indeed, expect no recovery at all. Rather, expect Germany to contribute in a major way to the pending "unexpected" non-recovery, unless by some miracle European exports to Mars suddenly take off. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Greece Bans Protests During Schäuble Visit; Country Needs Another €10 Billion; Expect More Haircuts Posted: 17 Jul 2013 10:42 AM PDT The Greek economy is in total shambles. Unemployment is 26.9% and youth unemployment is 57.5%. Round after round of bond haircuts have not done a thing for the economy. Der Spiegel now reports Greece on the Brink: Athens May Need 10 Billion More According to a report by German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung, the beleaguered country needs another massive influx of money if it is to avoid insolvency. The paper cites an unnamed official at the European Commission as saying that the "financial gap" could be as large as €10 billion. The news comes at a difficult time for Greece and its relations with Germany. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble is set to visit Athens this Thursday for consultations with his Greek counterpart Yannis Stournaras and with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras. Schäuble is highly unpopular in Greece for his consistent insistence on austerity. And with German elections looming in September, it seems unlikely that additional aid money for Athens will be forthcoming anytime soon. Concerns that Greece could be in need of additional assistance are not new. France, for example, recently called for direct EU assistance for wobbly Greek banks. In addition, Greek Economy Minister Kostis Hatzidakis told German daily Die Welt earlier this month that he expects Europe to agree to another debt haircut for the country, a conjecture with which he is not alone. Indeed, senior economists in Schäuble's own ministry told the daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on Tuesday that a further reduction in the country's debt load is necessary. "There will be a significant cut," Jörg Rocholl, president of the European School of Management and Technology and a member of an advisory council for the Finance Ministry, told the paper. "Greece's ability to shoulder its debts has not been guaranteed." When EU leaders approved the latest tranche of aid money for Greece earlier this month, they elected to spread it out over several months so as to increase the reform pressure on Greece. The results of that pressure are coming to a head on Wednesday, with parliament set to address the slashing of thousands of public sector jobs by the end of this year. To protest the measure, labor unions on Tuesday staged their fourth general strike of the year, paralyzing the capital with peaceful marches. €10 Billion is an enormous sum of money for Greece,  and Schäuble is hardly going to deliver any good news. During the visit, Greece elected to put up a facade. Greece Bans Protests During Schäuble Visit The AP reports Greece Bans Protests During Schäuble Visit The Greek police has banned public protests in central Athens for 11 hours on Thursday, when German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will visit, a decision the left-wing opposition party described as "fascist and undemocratic." A police statement Wednesday said a cordon would be set up around the city center in which "public gatherings and rallies" would be banned between 9:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m. (0600-1700GMT). The cordon includes parliament and the city's main Syntagma Square, focal points of scores of anti-austerity demonstrations. Panos Skourletis, a spokesman for the left-wing main opposition party, Syriza, strongly criticized the decision. He said it was "inconceivable in a European city." Various Protests in Spite of Ban How successful was the ban? The Guardian provides pictures and a list of various Greek protests of the day On Monday night, teachers and education workers protested against layoffs and school closures, ahead of today's general strike. Today's protests Several protests are planned for Athens today, with the first starting shortly, and an all-night sit-in planned outside the Greek parliament • 10:30 local time (8.30am BST): Communist workers group PAME will gather in Omonia Square in Athens, then coverge with union protest in Syntagma. A seperate march will take place in the city of Thessaloniki. •11:00 local time (9am BST): Employees from the ADEDY, GSEE and POE-OTA (municipal employees) unions will start a protest in Klafthmonos Square and move to Syntagma, outside Parliament • 20:00 local time (6pm BST): Municipal workers will begin a sit-in and overnight protest in Syntagma Square, as MPs debate the latest austerity bill required to secure bailout funds. How long before major violence erupts again? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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