Saturday, May 14, 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


McCain on Torture and Waterboarding; Ron Paul on Bin Laden and Torture: Bin Laden Is Dead – Let’s Come Home!

Posted: 14 May 2011 05:20 PM PDT

Bin Laden Is Dead – Let's Come Home!



Ron Paul On the Elimination of Osama bin Laden
Last week marked an important milestone in the war on terrorism for our country. Osama bin Laden applauded the 9/11 attacks. Such deliberate killing of innocent lives deserved retaliation. It is good that bin Laden is dead and justice is served. The way in which he was finally captured and killed shows that targeted retribution is far superior to wars of aggression and nation-building. In 2001 I supported giving the president the authority to pursue those responsible for the vicious 9/11 attacks. However, misusing that authority to pursue nation-building and remaking the Middle East was cynical and dangerous, as the past ten years have proven.

It is tragic that it took ten years, trillions of dollars, tens of thousands of American casualties and many thousands of innocent lives to achieve our mission of killing one evil person. A narrow, targeted mission under these circumstances was far superior to initiating wars against countries not involved in the 9/11 attacks, and that is all we should have done. This was the reason I emphasized at the time the principle of Marque and Reprisal, permitted to us by the US Constitution for difficult missions such as we faced. I am convinced that this approach would have achieved our goal much sooner and much cheaper.

The elimination of Osama bin Laden should now prompt us to declare victory and bring our troops home from Afghanistan and Iraq. Al Qaeda was never in Iraq and we were supposedly in Afghanistan to get Osama bin Laden. With bin Laden gone, there is no reason for our presence in the region – unless indeed it was all about oil, nation-building, and remaking the Middle East and Central Asia.

Hopefully bin Laden does not get the last laugh. He claimed the 9/11 attacks were designed to get the US to spread its military dangerously and excessively throughout the Middle East, bankrupting us through excessive military spending as he did the Soviets, and to cause political dissention within the United States. Some 70 percent of Americans now believe we should leave Afghanistan yet both parties seem determined to stay. The best thing we could do right now is prove bin Laden a false prophet by coming home and ending this madness on a high note.

Tragically, one result may be the acceptance of torture as a legitimate tool for pursuing our foreign policy. A free society, calling itself a republic, grounded in the rule of law, should never succumb to such evil.

At the very least we should all be able to agree that foreign aid to Pakistan needs to end immediately. The idea that bin Laden was safely protected for ten years in Pakistan, either willfully or through incompetence, should make us question the wisdom of robbing American citizens to support any government around the world with foreign aid. All foreign aid and intervention needs to end.

Our failed foreign policy is reflected in our bizarre relationship with Pakistan. We bomb them with drones, causing hundreds of civilian casualties, we give them billions of dollars in foreign aid for the privilege to do so, all while they protect America's enemy number one for a decade.

It is time to consider a sensible non-interventionist foreign policy as advised by our Founders and authorized by our Constitution. We would all be better off for it.
FBI, CIA, Military Interrogators All Say Torture Doesn't Work

Interrogation Experts From Every Branch of the Military and Intelligence Agree: Torture DOESN'T Produce Useful Information

Please click on and read the above link. It contains a wide array of quotes of FBI, CIA, and military experts including a 4-star general that all say the same thing: torture does not work.

Desert Storm 4-Star General Blasts Torture

Please consider 4-Star General Calls for Probe of Bush White House
General Barry McCaffrey is a retired 4-star General who commanded the 24th Infantry Division in Desert Storm. In his autobiography, Schwarzkopt called McCaffrey the hero of Desert Storm.

General Barry McCaffrey:

We should never as a policy maltreat people under our control, detainees.

We tortured people unmercifully. We probably murdered dozens of them during a course of that, both by the armed forces and CIA. [Releasing the memos] was the right thing to do.


Meanwhile, legendary covert CIA officer Robert Baer also calls for an investigation.

The Administration was absolutely right to declassify the Department of Justice-CIA interrogation memos. The argument that the letters compromise national security does not hold water.

But Obama should not stop there.

The memos justify abusive interrogations by the completely discredited "ticking time-bomb" defense — that if we don't torture a suspect when we know there is an imminent threat, we stand to lose many, many American lives.
The Ticking Time-Bomb defense is made-for-TV hype, not a real-world application. Nonetheless, some torture-defending clown tried to spring it on me last week.

McCain on Torture

Also consider Senator John McCain on the Use of Torture, Remarks on the Floor of the U.S. Senate, 12 May 2011.
"Mr. President, the successful end of the ten-year manhunt to bring Osama bin Laden to justice has appropriately heightened the nation‟s appreciation for the diligence, patriotism and courage of our armed forces and our intelligence community. They are a great

"But their success has also reignited debate over whether the so-called, „enhanced interrogation techniques‟ of enemy prisoners, including waterboarding, were instrumental in locating bin Laden, and whether they are necessary and justifiable means for securing valuable information that might help prevent future terrorist attacks against us and our allies and lead to the capture or killing of those who would perpetrate them. Or are they, and should they be, prohibited by our conscience and laws as torture or cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment.

"I believe some of these practices – especially waterboarding, which is a mock execution, and thus to me, indisputably torture – are and should be prohibited in a nation that is exceptional in its defense and advocacy of human rights. I believe they are a violation of the Detainee Treatment Act of 2005, the Military Commissions Act of 2006, and Common Article Three of the Geneva Conventions, all of which forbid cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment of all captured combatants, whether they wear the uniform of a country or are essentially stateless.

"I opposed waterboarding and similar so-called „enhanced interrogation techniques‟ before Osama bin Laden was brought to justice. And I oppose them now. I do not believe they are necessary to our success in our war against terrorists, as the advocates of these techniques claim they are.

Under torture a person will say anything he thinks his captors want to hear – whether it is true or false – if he believes it will relieve his suffering. Often, information provided to stop the torture is deliberately misleading. And what the advocates of cruel and harsh interrogation techniques can never prove is that we could not have gathered the same intelligence through other, more humane means – as a review of the facts provides solid reason to be confident that we can. The costs of assuming otherwise can be hugely detrimental.

"It has also been reported, and the staff of the Senate Intelligence Committee confirms for me, that a man named Ibn al-Sheikh al-Libi, who had been captured by the United States and rendered to Egypt, where we believe he was tortured, provided false and misleading information about Saddam Hussein‟s weapons of mass destruction programs. That false information was ultimately included in Secretary of State Colin Powell‟s statement to the UN Security Council, and, I assume, helped to influence the Bush Administration‟s decision to invade Iraq.

I have not found evidence to suggest that torture – or, since so much of our disagreement is definitional, interrogation methods that I believe are torture, and which I believe are prohibited by U.S. law and international treaty obligations we are not just a party to, but leading advocates of – played an important part in finding and killing bin Laden. Rather, I think his death at the hands of the United States argues quite the contrary: that we can succeed without resort to these methods.
McCain on Motivating the Enemy, the Constitution, the Geneva Convention



Link if the above video does not play - http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7365944n

"When someone inflicts torture on someone else, it does great damage not only to the person who receives it, but also the person who engages in it."

I agree with McCain on torture but side with Ron Paul on the need to get the hell out of Afghanistan and Iraq.

Kidnapping, Torture, and Reflections on Alleged "American Values"

In case you missed it, please see my May 5th post Kidnapping, Torture, and Reflections on Alleged "American Values"
"Thinking that torture is wrong is not a liberal or conservative value - it is simply a value."

It is high time the US disavow torture and charge those doing it with crimes. Just don't expect that anytime soon given that kidnapping, torture, and holding people for 9 years without trial are actions openly condoned by Republican and Democrats presidents alike. That is the sad state of affairs of alleged "American Values".
As a follow-up, please see Torture Never Works; Ron Paul on Torture and Secret Prisons; "Torture is What the Nazis Did"

I am proud to be ahead of the curve on this issue and I commend Senator John McCain and Congressman Ron Paul for their steadfast opposition to torture.

"Thinking that torture is wrong is not a liberal or conservative value - it is simply a value."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


New Disclosures on Currency Swaps with Goldman to Hide Greek Debt; Tip of the Iceberg says Former Bond Trader "Dr. Evil"

Posted: 14 May 2011 11:57 AM PDT

By now, most realize that Greece used currency swaps with Goldman to hide debt. However, Bloomberg has some new details about those transaction in its report Greece Had 13 Currency Swaps With Goldman, Eurostat Says
Greece had 13 off-market derivative contracts with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), most of which swapped Japanese yen into euros in a 2001 transaction aimed at concealing the true size of the nation's debt, according to the European Union's statistics office.

The amount borrowed through the swaps was due to be repaid with an interest-rate swap that would have spread payments through 2019, Eurostat said in a report on its website today. In 2005, the maturity was extended to 2037, the report said. Restructuring the swaps spread the cost over a longer period, leading to an increase in liabilities and debt, Eurostat said.

Repeated revisions of Greece's figures, beginning in 2009, spurred a surge in borrowing costs that pushed the country to the brink of default and triggered a region-wide debt crisis. The use of off-market swaps, which Greece hadn't previously disclosed as debt, let the country increase borrowings by 5.3 billion euros ($7.5 billion), Eurostat said in November.

Today's report provides details of Eurostat's analysis of data obtained by its inspectors in Greece last year. Eurostat said most issues surrounding the swaps were resolved in September, when Greece agreed to correct its debt figures.
Tip of the Iceberg

Dr. Evil, a former government bond trader for a very prominent bank pinged me with a brief comment on the above article "13 with just 1 bank, in just 1 small country. This is but a tip of a huge iceberg".

For more on Dr. Evil, secret trades, and Citigroup's involvement, please see Italy The Invisible Elephant

Italy 10-Year Sovereign Debt Yield



Spain 10-Year Sovereign Debt Yield



Germany
10-Year Sovereign Debt Yield



10-Year Government Bond Yield Comparison

Italy: 4.61%
Spain: 5.26%
Germany: 3.08%

So far, government bond yields in Italy and Spain remain "contained". However, as compared to German 10-year bonds, the Spanish 10-year bond yield is 2.18% higher and Italian debt is 1.53% higher.

Things will get interesting in a hurry should the market start having doubts about the debt of Spain or Italy, especially the latter.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Worst Recovery Ever For Small Businesses

Posted: 14 May 2011 08:52 AM PDT

The recovery that never was, took a turn for the worse in the latest survey of small businesses. The NFIB reports Small-Business Optimism Index Dips for Second Consecutive Month in April
The month of April marked a second consecutive month of decline in small-business optimism; NFIB's index dropped to 91.2 in April – a much smaller dip than the previous month, but still another sign of the nation's anemic economic recovery. While reports of net jobs created by small firms stayed positive, the numbers posted did not match the surprising gains cited in last week's Labor Department report. This suggests that the bulk of new hiring is happening in larger firms and the smaller counterparts on Main Street—the ones traditionally responsible for leading the country out of recessions, are still struggling to hire.

The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in six months slipped another 3 points to negative 8%, 18 percentage points worse than in January. Uncertainty is the enemy, and there is plenty of it to convince owners to "keep their powder dry".

Only 50% of all firms reported making capital outlays last month, down 1 point from the month prior. The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next three to six months fell 3 points to 21%, a recession level reading. Money is cheap, but most owners are not interested in a loan to finance equipment they don't need. Prospects are still uncertain enough to discourage any but the most profitable and promising investments.

Credit Markets

Overall, 92 percent reported that all their credit needs were met or that they were not interested in borrowing. Eight percent reported that not all of their credit needs were satisfied. Three percent reported financing as their #1 business problem, so "credit supply" is not a problem for the overwhelming majority. For the banks with money to lend, "credit demand" is weak. The historically high percent of owners who cite weak sales means that, for many owners, investments in new equipment or new workers are not likely to "pay back". This is a major cause for the lack of credit demand observed in financial markets along with the deficiency in housing starts, a million units below "normal". Thirty-two percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, 4 points above the record low.

Commentary

The "get up and go" usually present in the small business sector after a recession "got up and went" somewhere. For the small business sector, this is the worst recovery on record. The recovery in the small business indicators looks especially anemic in comparison to the recovery after the 1980-82 recession period, the era with a depth most comparable to our most recent experience.

Owners report that inventories are now in balance with expected sales, but these expectations are muted, providing little reason to hire more workers. Capital spending remains low because the prospects of generating the additional sales needed to pay off loans used to finance expansion are not good. Selling prices are rising sharply not because costs are rising but because the "fire sale" needed to bring inventories and excess retail capacity into balance is about over. New construction and services are labor intensive and dominated by small firms. Spending must recover here to get employment up and running. Maybe after consumers are through buying cars they will get their nails done.
Small Business Outlook



If you want to know where small business hiring is going, take a look at the blue line in the above chart. Companies saying this is a "good time to expand" is at rock bottom levels.

In regards to the latest BLS monthly jobs report, the NFIB concludes "the bulk of new hiring is happening in larger firms". I conclude it did not happen at all. For details of my analysis please see Digging Still Deeper In Friday's Jobs Report; What's the Real Unemployment Rate?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


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