Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mapping the European Refugee Crisis and Where the Path is Blocked; Chain Reactions! Walking Distance
Viral Video of Terrifying Escape Through California Flames
US, Russia Hold Military Talks Over Syria; What Changed Obama's Tune?

Mapping the European Refugee Crisis and Where the Path is Blocked; Chain Reactions! Walking Distance

Posted: 18 Sep 2015 06:47 PM PDT

As the refugee crisis in Europe builds, inquiring minds may be wondering where the refugees are coming from, where they want to go, and where they are blocked.

Here's a map I put together starting from a map posted in the Financial Times.

Anecdotes in red and purple are mine.

Chain Reactions!

After being shut out of Hungary, Croatian Army on Alert as Almost 9,000 Migrants Surge into Croatia.

Croatia put its military on alert after almost 9,000 migrants surged into the country after being shut out of Hungary, which effectively closed its border this week.

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, president, took the move to protect Croatia's border from illegal migration, the state news agency reported.

Croatian officials said they were at their limit, with as of Thursday evening a total of 8,900 migrants entering the country, the latest gateway to the EU for people from Syria and elsewhere. Ranko Ostojić, interior minister, said the country was now "absolutely full", adding: "Croatia will not be able to receive more people."

Just a day before, the Croatian government had said migrants were welcome to pass through Croatian territory on their way to ultimate destinations in Germany or Scandinavia.

Related Headlines

September 17: Bulgaria Deploys 1,000 Troops at Turkish Border
September 17: Migrants Inundate New EU Crisis Hotspot Croatia
September 16: Hundreds Seek to Cross Turkey-Greece Border
September 16: Chaos at Hungary Border as Police Tear Gas Migrants
September 15: Hungary Rejects All Asylum Requests
September 3: Bulgaria detains 125 migrants, sending message to others

The message from Hungary should be clear, nonetheless the Wall Street Journal wrote just today Croatia Buses Migrants to Hungary Border.

An overwhelmed Croatia began busing migrants to Hungary as Budapest said it had started construction on a razor-wire fence at their shared border, in a chaotic day that left stranded migrants angry and confused.

As of Friday afternoon, Croatia had registered about 15,400 migrants who have made their way into the country since Wednesday, more than 2,000 over Thursday night alone, even after blocking most of the roads leading to its border posts with Serbia. It said it was letting most go on to Hungary and another neighboring EU state, Slovenia.

"We cannot register and accommodate these people any longer," said Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic.

I suggest Croatia should have thought of that two days ago when it foolishly stated "migrants were welcome to pass through Croatian territory on their way to ultimate destinations in Germany or Scandinavia"

Slovenia

If Croatia hands them off to Slovenia, what the hell is Slovenia going to do with them?

I happen to have the answer.

Yesterday, the Guardian reported Slovenia Offers Shelter for 5,000 Refugees.

Four hours ago, ABC News reported Slovenian Police Pepper Spray Migrants at Border.

Razor Fence

Walking Distance

Google Maps provides a Walking Perspective of the journey from Syria to Serbia.

The trip would cover 1,400 miles, taking an estimated 452 hours. At 25 miles a day (not realistically possible for kids or anyone in bad shape), it would take about 50 days.

And Serbia is not even the ultimate destination. Germany or Sweden is the goal. From Hungary, they would still have to get through Hungary and Austria, or the trifecta of Croatia, Slovenia, and Austria.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Viral Video of Terrifying Escape Through California Flames

Posted: 18 Sep 2015 03:52 PM PDT

If you live in California anywhere near flames, don't depend on an evacuation order to save you. The order may never come.

The following video Heading toward Middletown on through Valley Fire shows the last three cars to escape the inferno.

Lots of people are viewing this so it could play slow.

Had any tree or electrical pole fallen into the street they would have been trapped.

Discussing the Video

The Guardian has a condensed video and comments from the family in its report Mother Talks about Son's Viral California Wildfire Video.

Julie Wolf was two cars behind her son when he filmed their infamous escape from an explosive wildfire in Anderson Springs, California. She is the only member of the three-car convoy to speak out about footage that has gone viral, after providing a window into the dramatic blaze ravaging the state.

The video, now viewed by over 1.6 million people on YouTube, shows the terrifying escape her family made through flame-consumed woods on 12 September. "Oh my God," her son muttered as he navigated through the inferno.

Wolf said she was "too busy being terrified" during the drive, but her son, who does not want to be named, shot the video.

As of Thursday, the Valley fire has incinerated 73,700 acres and is 35% contained. Wolf said she didn't know the fire was so close until her son pulled into her driveway to drop off a small, electric trailer.

"When my son drove into the property, he had seen the smoke. He didn't see fire, but he saw smoke," she said. "And he said it's right up the hill from you and I think you should start packing."

A mandatory evacuation was issued by authorities at 4pm – several hours before they left.

She said they never received the order to evacuate. Wolf was expecting a phone call from the fire department, who she said had a "system in place to call everybody for evacuation situations".

At one point, her son hit something, cracking the windshield, tearing away the passenger side headlight, and crushing the quarter panel. But the van was "so big and heavy so it just powered through".

"If we had reversed the order of the cars, somebody could be horribly hurt or we could have all hit each other," Wolf said. "We had an enormous amount of luck getting out of there."

Helping Out

The family set up a GoFundMe page Lost everything in #ValleyFire for those interested in helping.

We barely escaped, but we are happy to be alive. She does not have insurance. Because her job involved working on the homes in the community, she no longer has work.

We are setting up this campaign to gather funds to support the loss of income, start rebuilding the house, restocking essentials like food, supplies, clothes, and furniture.

We will be returning as soon as we are able to, to help clear the roads and help the town.

We have really appreciated our friends' and family's offers for support during this difficult time. We set this up to give our greater community somewhere they could make a difference for someone they know and care about. Everyone's contributions mean so very much.

Thank you.

P.S. Julie's favorite numbers are 7 and 12. Even if you can only donate $7, it will help rebuild the house, one nail at a time.

Here is the donation page. I made a contribution.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

US, Russia Hold Military Talks Over Syria; What Changed Obama's Tune?

Posted: 18 Sep 2015 10:51 AM PDT

Russian intervention in Syria has forced president Obama to rethink US policy.

The Financial Times reports US and Russia Hold Syria Talks as Moscow Hints at Combat Role.

US secretary of defense Ashton Carter held direct talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu on Friday to discuss the war in Syria, amid mounting concern in the west over Russia's growing military support for the Assad regime.

The talks started as Moscow indicated it could send combat troops to Syria to support the Syrian military and US secretary of state John Kerry appeared to adopt a softer position towards Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

The Friday phone call with Mr Shoigu was the first time Mr Carter had spoken to the Russian defence minister since he assumed office in March and ended a long period of almost no communication between the two militaries as a result of the conflict in Ukraine.

The Pentagon said that the two ministers talked about ways to "deconflict" their respective operations in Syria, including the risk that planes from both countries could be flying in close proximity, and that both countries were focused on defeating Isis.

Speaking in London, Mr Kerry said that the purpose of the military talks would be to "define some of the different options that are available to us as we consider next steps in Syria."

The Obama administration has long insisted that Mr Assad could not be part of any political agreement that might end the war. However, on Friday Mr Kerry appeared to suggest it could accept the Syrian president remaining in power in the short-term, saying that no political settlement in Syria could be achieved "with the long-term presence of Assad".

The Kremlin said on Friday that Russia is prepared to consider supporting the Assad regime with troops in combat if the Syrian government asks for that, in the clearest indication so far that it is prepared to further step up its military involvement in the Syrian conflict.

What the Hell is the US Mission in Syria?

On September 11, Russia called on US to cooperate militarily in Syria to avert "unintended incidents".

State department spokesman John Kirby said he did not know what Russia meant. Kirby also stated "The most productive thing that they [Russia] can do is to stop aiding the Assad regime."

I responded to Kirby in What the Hell is the US Mission in Syria?

What Russia meant: "Duh! How about US-backed rebels fighting Assad, accidentally shooting at Russian or Iranian backed forces attacking Isis? Was that really so hard to figure out John?"

In regards to Kirby's statement on Assad, I commented "Kirby, just emphatically explained the US number one priority: Getting rid of Assad is far more important than stopping Isis. The US even backs Al Qaeda in that mission under the perverse description 'moderate rebels'."

Perverse Wisdom

The perverse wisdom is there is such a thing as "moderate Al Qaeda rebels".
The perverse wisdom is that Iraq can stay in one piece.
The perverse wisdom is that Assad gets all the blame for the mess in Syria.
The perverse wisdom is that the Kurds should not have their own country.
The perverse wisdom is the US should refuse help from Iran and Russia to contain Isis.
The perverse wisdom is the "House of Saud" is our friend.
The perverse wisdom is Iran must remain an enemy.
The perverse wisdom is the US should be nation building at all in this region.

Abrupt, But Welcome Change

Talking with Russia is an abrupt but welcome change. So is change in the priority. We should also engage Iran on the same issue.

What Changed Obama's Tune?

People may be wondering what changed Obama's tune so abruptly.

Stubborn, arrogant politicians (is there any other kind?) don't suddenly reverse course for no reason. So, what's the reason?

A German article on Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten provides a likely answer.

Please consider Syria: Germany Erupts US Alliance Against Russia.

Germany surprisingly erupted from the anti-Putin alliance of USA: Germany now officially welcomes the willingness of Moscow to get involved in Syria and will start together with the Russians and the French initiative to end the war. The flow of refugees is to be stopped. Germany has put thousands of soldiers on call.

Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen said Germany welcomes the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to participate "in the struggle against extremist organization". It is in the common interest to combat ISIS she said.

Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier even announced that it would start with Lavrov and his French colleague Laurent Fabius an attempt to end the civil war in Syria. Lavrov and Fabius are expected on Saturday in Berlin.

Leading CSU politicians spoke out in finding a peaceful solution for Syria for closer cooperation with the Russian leadership made. Without the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the situation in Syria is not to get a handle on, says CSU chief Horst Seehofer.

New Tune

The Syrian refugee crisis, with millions of migrants flowing into Germany is what changed Merkel's mind. In turn, the possibility of Germany and France supporting Putin in Syria changed Obama's mind.

We should have had talks on Syria long ago, but arrogant politicians do not change policies without a huge amount of pressure.

The refugee crisis created that pressure, not a sudden dose of common sense from Obama.

US neocons and Republican presidential candidates will be all over Obama for this, but talking with Russia is a smart action, even if Obama was forced into doing the smart thing by Merkel. Of course Merkel would not have done the smart thing were it not for the escalating refugee crisis.

By the way, there is a good chance this will spill over into sensible sanction discussions with Russia as well.

This is the story behind the story, and one you are unlikely to see in US mainstream media.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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Friday, September 18, 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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