Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
| It's Different This Time: Humans Need Not Apply; Two Possible Solutions Posted: 16 Aug 2014 02:32 PM PDT On August 7, I wrote about "McCashier" Your $15.00 Per Hour McDonald's Worker Replacement. Sure. You can make $15 an hour at McDonald's, at least in Seattle. You just have to perform better than this machine.  Many commented along the lines of "What's the big deal? It's only a cashier. There are more cooking jobs that cannot be replaced." For example reader Chris commented ... A McDonalds worker isn't a "cashier." The person who works the front end doesn't just take orders and money. The person who works up front also fills drinks for drive thru. They clean the restrooms and dining areas. They help assemble food if needed(dropping fries.) Does the machine do all those things? If it doesn't then it isn't really replacing anything or more cost effective then a person. There is usually 2-3 people in the back assembling food and 2 people up front taking orders, handling money, assembling trays with ordered food, preparing drinks for drive thru, etc., etc. You could get the kiosk and the stupid burger machine and still have more than enough work for those 5 people.Really? What about robot cooks, robot greeters, and even robot waiters? Robot Cooks, Greeters, Waiters The Times of India reports Robots Greet, Cook and Deliver Dishes at this Restaurant in China. It's more teatime than Terminator — a restaurant in China is electrifying customers by using more than a dozen robots to cook and deliver food. Mechanical staff greet customers, deliver dishes to tables and even stir-fry meat and vegetables at the eatery in Kunshan, which opened last week.Robot Waiters  A restaurant in China is electrifying customers by using more than a dozen robots to cook and deliver food. (AFP Photo) Robot Cooks  This photo taken on August 13, 2014, shows a robot cooking vegetables in a kitchen of a restaurant in Kunshan. (AFP Photo) Humans Need Not Apply Many people sent me a link to Humans Need Not Apply. The 15 minute video is well done and very thought provoking. It's well worth your time to play it. Is It Different This Time? The gist of the video is that "It's Different This Time", that no matter what your job is, your job is in jeopardy. I have stated that over the long haul, technology creates jobs, but there are periods of creative destruction where the opposite happens. For example: How many millions of jobs did the internet revolution create? Did they all vanish? No they did not vanish, and they all won't. Yet, we are in a creative destruction phase where computers take jobs away. Will this change? I don't know the catalyst, but historically speaking, it always has. What about the meantime? And for those who think the setup is permanent, the problem has even more severe implications. Many readers have written this is why we need a "guaranteed income", not a guaranteed minimum "living wage". Let's quickly dispense with such nonsense. Pay people to do nothing and you promote doing nothing. Do we have enough energy resources to give everyone on the planet, a guaranteed "living income"? The answer is no, we don't. Reflections on Productivity The natural state of affairs because of increased productivity over time is an increased standard of living, more free, time, and falling prices. Productivity and technological breakthroughs are inherently price-deflationary. Enter the Fed and central banks in general. Central banks are hell bent on producing 2% or more inflation in a deflationary world. That is the source of the battle over "living wages". The problem is money does not go far enough, rather than people do not make enough. Realistically, no one in their right mind should care if wages fall, if increased productivity makes prices fall faster. But central banks do not want prices to fall. Nor do those who control the assets (the banks, the bureaucrats, and the already wealthy) want prices to fall. So, with the Fed promoting inflation, bureaucrats promoting higher and higher minimum wages, and with the Fed holding interest rates artificially low, corporations have every incentive to replace workers with robots at a Fed-induced artificially high rate. Two Possible Solutions The solution is not higher minimum wages. The solution is not a tax on robots like Paul Krugman wants. The solution is not a guaranteed income. The solution is to eliminate the Fed, eliminate fractional reserve lending, and give the free market a chance to create jobs at its own pace, without all this government and central bank interference. The alternative "solution" and not one I support, is to kill off a lot of needless people by starting WWIII. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Rebels Inflict Heavy Damage on Ukrainian Military Vehicles; Anti-Putin Sanction Alliance Crumbles Posted: 16 Aug 2014 11:22 AM PDT Contrary to the unsubstantiated rumor (most likely a complete fabrication) that Ukraine Destroyed a Russian Convoy, the rebels have inflicted serious damage on the Ukrainian military machine. And unlike the zero-proof offered by Ukraine, I have a few videos to show. Descriptions from Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks Russian and reads Ukrainian. Video 1: Stepanovka Translated Text from Video URL: "The defeat of Ukrainian troops in Stepanovka part 1. In Stepanovka Ukrainian army left dozens of pieces of equipment, a large quantity of ammunition, classified material. Locals said that the Ukrainian officers fatten when their soldiers were starving. In the Ukrainian army thrives drunkenness and panic." Dreizin Synopsis 1: Destroyed or abandoned Ukrainian equipment in/near Stepanovka in the south, the first of two Stepanovka videos. The first couple of minutes are very interesting, with lots of destroyed or abandoned equipment and milia carting off captured munitions and rummaging through stuff. Then a funky local man who tells the cameraman about how the Ukrainian officers didn't take care of their men and darted off leaving their men stranded, how the Ukrainians all drink heavily, how their morale is low and they panic during any kind of battle, and how they don't want to engage the militia up-close. Also you can see a stack of grad rockets on the ground around 5:50 and then again around 7:20. But the most memorable quote is from around 7:18 to 7:52, as follows ... "In the Stepanovka area, guys are jumping to go into battle, to kill the enemy even with bare hands. In particular, in the assault units that captured Stepanovka, there are very many volunteers from Semyonovka [a town near Slaviansk that was largely destroyed by Ukrainian shelling], who are just burning with a thirst for vengeance for the acts of genocide that the fascists waged there. I think that for Ukrainian soldiers, it's really best not to run into these guys. This is the mindset the Ukrainian army is fighting." Video 2: Stepanovka Translated text from the video URL "In Stepanovka Ukrainian army left dozens of pieces of equipment, a large quantity of ammunition, classified material. Showing the shocking footage of the deceased in the fire department of a Ukrainian paratroopers." Dreizin Synopsis 2: Destroyed or abandoned Ukrainian equipment near Stepanovka in the south, the second of two Stepanovka videos. This video is more interesting, much more equipment here, best part starts around 2:50. Overall, for both (1) and (2), the narrator is describing the abandoned weapons, the tactical situation, and the human situation. In part (2) from 3:09-3:21, the narrator says that a militia burial party has already been to that particular spot, and along with a priest has taken the remains of 40 Ukrainians killed there and buried them nearby. Video 3: Lugansk Dreizin says "Warning! This may kill your appetite" Video URO description says "Consumed column Lviv airmobile brigade APU by the people's militia". Dreizin Synopsis 3: Dreizin describes this as the remains of a convoy of Ukraine's 95th Airmobile Brigade. I question the recentness of the video based on rotting flesh. Video 4: Marinovka Video URL Customs post with Russia "Marinovka" August 14, 2014 Dreizin Synopsis 4: These militiamen are touring the captured border post of Marinovka, one of the points that plugs the western flank of the new cauldron in the south. They are obviously really happy, and the tall guy with the beard and mustache even finds the occasion to shout out his own paraphrase of an excerpt from Pushkin's "Ruslan i Liudmila" at around 0:22-0:25 (roughly translated as "It now smells like Russia here".) Anti-Putin Sanction Alliance Crumbles As the war rages on, and sanctions mount, support for those sanctions is now being reconsidered. Zero Hedge provides a nice synopsis in "Anti-Putin" Alliance Fraying: Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Czech Republic Urge End To Russian Sanctions Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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