Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Jobs Bowl: Illinois vs. Texas and Indiana
Montebourg Complains "Europe a Victim of Currency Wars", Seeks "Political Battle" to Devalue the Euro
Facebook Fraud - How Much of Facebook's Ad Revenue is Legitimate?

Jobs Bowl: Illinois vs. Texas and Indiana

Posted: 11 Feb 2014 04:13 PM PST

In the all important "Jobs Bowl", far more important than the "Super Bowl" Illinois is losing out to Texas and Indiana.

Via email from the Illinois Policy Institute

The common refrain made against Texas by those who defend the status quo in Illinois is that the jobs being created in the Lone Star State are lower-paying and less-rewarding opportunities.

But not anymore. Texas is now unquestionably besting Illinois in providing for the middle class.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2012 the inflation-adjusted median household income for Texas surpassed that of Illinois for the first time since 1984, when the statistic first started being recorded.

That means the household making the median income in Texas is taking home a bigger paycheck than the household making the median income in Illinois.

Not only is the pay higher, but Texans also get to keep more of it. After taking the standard deduction for three household members, the median Illinois household pays $2,287 in state income taxes. The median Texas family pays no income tax, as work is not taxed in Texas.

And not only is work not taxed in Texas, but there is also a lot more work to be had. Since 1984, Texas has created nearly 5 million new employment opportunities. Illinois created less than 1 million.

This story isn't a simple comparison; it's also a transfer. From 1995-2010, Illinois had a net loss of nearly 33,000 households representing just less than 80,000 people to net out-migration to Texas alone. In terms of dollars, Illinois lost $1.98 billion in taxable income to Texas, or $60,500 per household lost.

Ironically, Illinois' anti-business, anti-success policies can take partial credit for Texas' success.

Michael Lucci
Director of Jobs and Growth

Illinois vs. Indiana

Let's also compare Illinois to Indiana.

The story of Illinois' steady out-migration problem is well known, but just where are Illinoisans moving to? Is the outflow driven entirely by retirees and beach-goers moving to Florida? Not according to the U.S. Census Bureau, which just released its 2012 American Community Survey of state-to-state migration flow data. These data use census surveys to make estimates of migration flow between the states.

The No. 1 destination for Illinois out-migrants: Indiana.

The data show that in 2012, Illinois had a net loss of residents to each of its neighboring states, and that Illinois had a greater net loss to Indiana than to any other state in the union.

Indiana doesn't offer the warm climate of destinations such as Florida and Texas. Illinoisans cross the border because of policy failures.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, along with former Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley correctly predicted that raising the corporate tax rate to the fourth-highest in the nation would drive residents and business across the border.

Workers' compensation costs in Illinois are also the fourth-highest nationally, while Indiana has the second-lowest rates. Indiana, Wisconsin and Iowa are Right-to-Work states, and ending forced-unionism is becoming a hot issue in Missouri.

Illinois' overall regulatory burden ranks it 42nd-best nationally, and residents pay the ninth-highest tax burden of any state.

In short, Illinois stands out from its neighbors as the state doing the least to create opportunity for its
citizens through common-sense economic reform.

The census data align with the United Van Lines moving data to show that the pace of outflow is high. On net, Illinois lost 69,198 residents to other states, with 33,099 of those net losses flowing to neighboring states. The most significant neighborhood losses were to Indiana (11,529, first overall), Missouri (8,737, third overall) and Wisconsin (7,871, fourth overall).

Neighboring states have made changes to better accommodate business growth and personal opportunities. Massive out-migration from Illinois shows that an increasing number of residents have become exhausted with business as usual in Illinois, and have cast their final vote with their feet.

Michael Lucci
Director of Jobs and Growth

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Montebourg Complains "Europe a Victim of Currency Wars", Seeks "Political Battle" to Devalue the Euro

Posted: 11 Feb 2014 11:24 AM PST

Arnaud Montebourg, France's minister of industrial renewal, says the level of the euro is "grotesque".

Montebourg also claims the current level of the euro annihilates efforts in France to increase competitiveness. His solution: Take over ECB currency policy by political force.

Via translation from a Les Echos interview, Montebourg complains "We Must Bring Down the Value of the Euro".

LE: What is your view on the level of the euro?
AM: As Minister of Industry, I believe that the euro has become problematic in the eyes of all our businesses. Between 2012 and 2013, the euro has appreciated over 10% against the dollar and more than 40% against the yen. All while between the third quarter of 2012 and the third quarter of 2013, the growth rate was 3.4% accumulated in the United States, 2.3% in Japan and - 0.2% in the euro area! We have the most depressed area in the world and the currency appreciates most in the world. This is grotesque.

LE: A strong euro is not it a good thing for imports?
AM: But our first priority is to export more because we recorded external trade deficit of €61 billion in 2013. The euro penalizes industry instead of supporting the competitiveness of serious crisis we are experiencing. All major European manufacturers in aerospace, in food, transportation, and all economic institutions of the IMF Economic Analysis Council itself to the Prime Minister, through the OECD, defend "unconventional" new policies and to finally bring down the level of the euro. Why should we continue to put our heads in the sand?

LE: What do you actually do?
AM: We need to open a political battle to bring down the euro. The euro must be at the service of our economy and our industry. This is not to devalue but to reduce it to a reasonable and sustainable level. According to the Treasury, a depreciation of 10% would increase our growth rate of 1.2%. This would create 150,000 jobs, improve the trade balance and reduce our deficit of $ 12 billion. The European Central Bank (ECB) can no more play on interest rates since we already have zero interest rates almost, and yet she was unable to fulfill its mandate of inflation at least 2% since we deflation dangerous situation again. The euro is now a political issue that must be seized to imagine more unconventional policies as suggested by the IMF.

LE: Paris will he supported?
AM: France is far from alone. The euro is an undivided co-ownership of member States. We have to wage political battle against the proponents of a strong euro. Our historical efforts to lower the cost of labor on the CICE in France are devoured by the 10% appreciation of the euro now.

LE: But at the moment nothing happens.
AM: The European Central Bank arrives at the end of its ability to act according to the current design of its mandate. We must now leave the conservatism and conformism and put this issue at the heart of the European election campaign. If we do not reform the euro on an emergency basis, the European populations will unfortunately soon be tempted to get rid of it.

LE: Aren't you afraid to start a currency war?
AM: A currency war already exists! We are the victims and we are the only ones not to react!

LE: Do you feel that France is going too far in terms of competition?
AM: Producers need margins to live and invest. To maintain employment, it is essential to limit the excessive competition. There must be a balance, reconciliation between the consumer and the producer policy. This is the public interest. This policy is to define the right level of competition. Not the so-called independent authorities. These authorities often a purely consumerist vision and legal and does not sufficiently defend the industry and employment in France. In this respect, I think for example that ARCEP excessive powers and forgot employment, industry and made in France, and caused a downward spiral of low cost.

Mish Comments

Montebourg is a seriously misguided as well as economically-challenged politician. The very thing France needs is for costs to go down, especially relative to the rest of Europe. A currency devaluation will not and cannot solve relative productivity problems.

He wants to eliminate "excess competition". Such a construct does not even exist. Nor does the construct of "right level of competition" exist. Even if the "right" level of competition did exist, no government bureaucrat in the world could possibly know that level.

Finally, Montebourg wants to "bring down" the value of the euro. Don't worry, he doesn't want to "devalue" it!

Here is the Merriam-Webster definition of devalue: "to lower the value of a country's money so that it is worth less when it is traded with another country's money".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Facebook Fraud - How Much of Facebook's Ad Revenue is Legitimate?

Posted: 10 Feb 2014 11:21 PM PST

Ad revenue in the online world is based on clicks and impressions. For example, I have a relationship with Google that generally pays on clicks. I also have a relationship with Investing Channel that pays on impressions (views).

I do not pay anyone to direct traffic to my blog and I do not ask people to click on ads they are not interested in. Nor do I want them too.

On several occasions, I even reported myself to Google.

Why?

Because I accidentally clicked on an ad. It's easy to do when scrolling, even on your own blog. I don't pretend to be a knight in shining armor, but I do think honesty is the best policy.

On each occasion I reported myself, I believe Google made a small adjustment to my ad revenue, and theirs as well.

Here's the question of the day: When tens or hundreds of millions of dollars of stock market valuations are on the line, does integrity go out the window?

The following video brings the above question into play.

Link if video does not play: Facebook Ad Revenue Fraud.

Please play the video. It's a real eye opener that is hard to describe. You will enjoy it.

Facebook vs. Google

From my experience, Google is very meticulous about weeding out fraud. If you pay money to generate clicks or impressions on your site, Google will drop you from its ad program.

If the above video is even in the ballpark, there are serious issues at Facebook. In general there are serious problems if you pay someone to "like" you or drive traffic to you.

Addendum:

Just moments after I made the above post, I received an email from Lenny Teytelman regarding his company's experiences with fake "likes": What do Facebook "likes" of companies mean?

The moral of this story is don't pay for "likes", don't pay to have someone drive traffic to your site either.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Home Refinance Calculator

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

No comments:

Post a Comment