Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Schiff vs. Ritholtz: Political Correctness vs. Law of Supply and Demand
- Nigel Farage Video: UKIP Takes Lead in British Polls; Message to Cameron
- "Secret" Meetings on Greece? Say It Ain't So; Euro Contagion Coming Up
- What the Crisis Taught Us: More Bubbles! We Need Bigger Bubbles to Combat Deflation!
| Schiff vs. Ritholtz: Political Correctness vs. Law of Supply and Demand Posted: 31 Jan 2014 01:17 PM PST PolicyMic says There's a Good Reason Why Everyone's Cricizing Peter Schiff. Jon Stewart's Daily Show mocked Schiff in an amusing video interview Wage Against the Machine. The video allegedly explores "the devastating economic effects of raising the minimum wage to the poverty level." Schiff's opponent in the interview was Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture blog. Before the show aired, Barry explained How I Ended Up On The Daily Show. The feedback against Schiff was enormous. Ritholtz has the details in Follow Up: Daily Show Blowback. Political Correctness Points I am no fan of Schiff. We have radically different views on the inflation-deflation debate. And I do find the way he stated his case to be very distasteful. That said, it's clear the Daily Show was out to score political points, not explore economic reality. Given that Schiff was purposely displayed in the worst light possible and Ritholtz the best light possible (Ritholtz admits retake after retake) it is not shocking in the least to see all this blowback. Merits of the Debate Political correctness or not, I want a sound discussion of economic principles. In a Shades of France Socialistic Proposal (my title), Ritholtz states "The most radical idea is bit of pure fantasy: Guarantee every person in America a minimum salary". Indeed, let's hope that remains a fantasy because it's already proven if you give things away free, people able to work, will stop working. Here's an important corollary: If you make people work, you end up with work that has no economic justification. Campaign for a Bigger Paycheck On January 2, in The Campaign for a Bigger Paycheck, a New York Times stated 'When you raise the price of employment, guess what happens? You get less of it,' said Speaker John Boehner, espousing a party-line theory that most economists agree has been discredited. Someone Please Help New York Times With Econ 101 Actually, it's the New York Times editorial board that's discredited. Caroline Baum, in one of her last articles at Bloomberg (she has gone on to other things and I wish her well), blasted that New York Times "discredited" fiction sky high. Here is the pertinent snip from Someone Please Help New York Times With Econ 101. This is one of the more outrageous political statements dressed up as economic theory from the editorial board of the New York Times. They should be ashamed of themselves.Theory vs. Practice Caroline Baum stated economic theory to perfection. Let's now look at the economic law of supply and demand in practice as opposed to a biased political correctness in the way things were stated. Annual Job Growth Rates Minimum Wage States vs. Non-Minimum Wage States Here is a chart from the Institute for Research on Labor and Employment by UC Berkeley.  The chart shows lower job growth rates in states with higher minimum wages. Bias Towards Believing Myths I am sure you can find studies that allegedly prove or disprove anything, but things change over time and wages tend to go up over time so there is an inherent bias towards believing myths. Europe and Excellent Backdrop for Discussion Europe provides an even better look at the debate because of wide country-to-country variances. Here is a rock-solid study of actual data by economist Steve Hanke, For Europe's Youth, Minimum Wages Mean Minimal Employment. Yesterday, in the wake of Tuesday's State of the Union address, I poured cold water on President Obama's claim that a hike in the minimum wage for federal contract workers would benefit the United States' economy, pointing specifically to unemployment rates in the European Union. The data never lie: EU countries with minimum wage laws suffer higher rates of unemployment than those that do not mandate minimum wages. This point is even more pronounced when we look at rates of unemployment among the EU's youth – defined as those younger than 25 years of age.Comedy is Comedy, Reality is Reality Hanke concluded with a piece of wisdom from Nobelist Milton Friedman: "the minimum wage law is most properly described as a law saying employers must discriminate against people who have low skills. That's what the law says." I conclude with: Let's judge an argument based on merits, not on bias against the person stating it. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Nigel Farage Video: UKIP Takes Lead in British Polls; Message to Cameron Posted: 31 Jan 2014 11:17 AM PST I am pleased to report some good news today: UKIP takes lead in British polls ahead of EU parliamentary elections to be held in May.  Nigel Farage Video Inquiring minds should watch the an interesting Video Interview of UKIP leader Nighel Farage. Here's the opening lead "The UK Independence Party has managed to win over the hearts of the British public." Also consider UKIP Tops Independent Poll as Nation's Favourite Party 'The UK Independence Party is the nation's favourite political party, a poll for The Independent on Sunday reveals today.Message to David Cameron This shift in voter sentiment is a clear message to prime minister David Cameron: Get your head out from where the sun doesn't shine and announce a referendum on EU membership this year. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| "Secret" Meetings on Greece? Say It Ain't So; Euro Contagion Coming Up Posted: 31 Jan 2014 09:41 AM PST How long can secret ECB meetings stay secret? Allowing time to write a story, the answer is something like 3 days, if that. The Wall Street Journal today reports on a secret meeting that took place Monday evening regarding Greece finances. Please consider Greece Creditors, France, Germany Held Secret Meeting Monday. Top officials peeled away from colleagues after a euro-zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels Monday evening for a secret meeting to discuss mounting concerns over Greece's bailout.Creditors Worried Clearly, creditors are worried over Greece's ability to pay back bailout money (loans). They should be worried because there is no possible way Greece can ever pay back those loans. The best time to be worried about getting paid back is before stupid loans are made, not now. It's far too late to be worried now about loans already made. There is still time to not compound the mistake of making further loans (something they have done several times already). Politics Support for Prime Minister Antonis Samaras' New Democracy coalition has crumbled to pieces. If an election were held today, opposition party SYRIZA would win without a doubt. Moreover, SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras, who opposes the austerity measures and said his party wouldn't repay the $325 billion in loans granted by the Troika of the European Union-International Monetary Fund-European Central Bank (EU-IMF-ECB) has predicted the Leftists will come to power. For details, please see SYRIZA Surges in Greek Polls, Would Win Election if Held Today; Message People Want to Hear; Contagion Guarantee. Tsipras has since backed off on some of his harsh threats, but I suspect only for the purpose of increasing his election chances. Repeating what I have stated before ... Default Coming One Way or Another Whether done properly, or with promises that cannot be met, Greece is going to default on that debt. When that happens, German citizens will discover that Chancellor Angela Merkel's promise that German taxpayers won't be impacted is as hollow as most chocolate Easter bunnies. Calculating taxpayer responsibility percentages of various countries is simple enough. Eurozone Financial Stability Contribution Weights
The above table from European Financial Stability Facility Note that Greece is responsible for 2.81% of Greek defaults. How is that going to work? It doesn't. So take that percentage and spread it around according by revised weight. And what is Spain supposed to do with it's 12% of €325 billion of defaults? Contagion Guarantee Thank the economic illiterates at Troika for this setup. Greece could have defaulted in 2009 with perhaps a €40-50 billion mess to cleanup. In a foolish attempt to prevent contagion, the nannycrats turned a relatively small mess into major €325 billion problem, virtually assuring the contagion they set out to prevent. Expect to see much use of the word "contagion" in the coming months. Here is a question I asked in Prisoner's Dilemma Game in Greece; Contagion-Spread Eurozone Breakup More Likely Now; How will Greece NOT pay back €320 billion? So Angela Merkel, when are you going to admit this setup, and what are you going to do about it? Results "Inconclusive" Clearly she doesn't know. Results of the meeting were "inconclusive". If the Troika wants to hold secret meetings on something realistic, they should include Greece, and discuss how best contain the damage when Greece does default. Instead they focus on the delusional zero percent idea they can somehow prevent default or further writedowns. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| What the Crisis Taught Us: More Bubbles! We Need Bigger Bubbles to Combat Deflation! Posted: 30 Jan 2014 11:40 PM PST The Monetarists are out in full force warning about pending deflation. First it was Christine Lagarde with her message about the deflation ogre (see Christine Lagarde Warns of Lord Voldemort, Hopes to Put Deflation Ogre in a Bottle). Next on the list, deflation fighter extraordinaire, Telegraph writer Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, picked up on Lagard's commentary and screamed at the top of his lungs "More Bubbles! We need bigger and bigger bubbles to combat the threat of deflation!" Of course Pritchard did not state it precisely that way, but it is indeed exactly what he called for, in equally loud, unmistakable tones. World Risks Deflationary Shocks I invite you to read World risks deflationary shock as BRICS puncture credit bubbles by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. It is a remarkable state of affairs that the G2 monetary superpowers - the US and China - should both be tightening into such a 20pc risk, though no doubt they have concluded that asset bubbles are becoming an even bigger danger.Tightening? What Tightening? Pritchard calls a decrease in asset purchases by the Fed from $85 billion a month to $65 billion a month "tightening". The claim is preposterous. It's very much like telling an obese child you can only have three pieces of cake after dinner, not four. Correctly viewed, tapering asset purchases is a reduction in stimulus, not tightening. Actual Tightening in Emerging Markets Pritchard discussed Turkey, South Africa, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and every other country that actually did tighten recently, but he never addressed the reason they had to: inflation was completely out of control in those countries, with obvious asset bubbles in many of them. Tightening should have started long ago. Spotlight on Europe Eurostat data show that Italy, Spain, Holland, Portugal, Greece, Estonia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Latvia, as well as euro-pegged Denmark, Hungary, Bulgaria and Lithuania have all been in outright deflation since May, once tax rises are stripped out. Underlying prices have been dropping in Poland and the Czech Republic since July, and France since August.Spotlight on Japan No reputable deflation fighter could possibly leave Japan out of the mix, and there too, Pritchard did not disappoint. Those who think deflation is harmless should listen to the Bank of Japan's Haruhiko Kuroda, who has lived through 15 years of falling prices. Corporate profits dried up. Investment in technology atrophied. Innovation fizzled out. "It created a very negative mindset in Japan," he said.Cure Worse Than the Disease The ridiculousness of that last statement should be obvious. Japan has a debt burden because of its deflation fighting actions for three decades. Before Japan embarked on its deflation-fighting mission, it had no debt at all. Now it has the largest debt-to-GDP ratio in the industrial world. The cure "deflation fighting" was certainly worse than the disease, yet Pritchard wants central banks to "do more". Pritchard Wonders "Why?" Any such outcome in Europe would send Club Med debt trajectories through the roof. It would doom all hope of halting Europe's economic decline or reducing mass unemployment before the democracies of the afflicted countries go into seizure. So why are they letting it happen?Silly Question of the Day Here's the silly question of the day: Why are they letting it happen? Here's a better question: Why did Argentina, Turkey, South Africa, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and every other country that tightened recently wait so long to tighten? Price inflation was running rampant in every one of those countries. The stock market bubbles in India and Turkey are massive. The housing bubble in India is massive. But central bankers cannot see bubbles. Pritchard mentions bubbles but chooses to ignore them. Arguably, that's even sillier than not seeing them at all. Falling Prices a Bad Thing? Pritchard's only concern is with falling prices, as if falling prices are a bad thing. Ask anyone in Japan, the US, Europe, or India if they would like to see falling prices. The only people who don't want falling prices are central bankers, economic illiterates, and Wall Street types and banks dependent on ever-growing asset bubbles (because of bad loans made on speculative-priced assets). Demise of Japan Coming Up For all the pissing and moaning about Japan, until the revival of GM, Japan's auto and technology sales did quite fine. Technology did not stop. It's the foolish Abenomics deflation-fighting policies of prime minister Abe (which Pritchard supports) that's gong to be the demise of Japan. Reflections on "Letting it Happen" It's not a matter of "letting it happen" (it being deflation). Deflation is actually the natural state of affairs. As a result of increased productivity, prices should drop over time, with more goods available at cheaper prices, to the benefit of everyone! And in spite of the ridiculous notion that people will hold off on consumer purchases if prices drop, it's actually the other way around. Falling prices and bargains spur sales. If falling prices stopped sales, there would have been no sales of flat-panel TVs, computers, or any other electronic devices for years. If the price of healthcare dropped, people would have more money to spend on other things, and spend they would. It's asset prices, not consumer prices, where people stay away when prices are falling. That makes asset bubbles all the more dangerous. Obama Irony Consider the irony of this statement by President Obama in his state of the union address. "Today, our housing market is finally healing from the collapse of 2007.Home prices are rising at the fastest pace in six years, home purchases are up nearly 50 percent, and construction is expanding again. But even with mortgage rates near a 50-year low, too many families with solid credit who want to buy a home are being rejected." Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog accurately summarized the situation in State of the Union or TOTALGOV as follows: "We gotta blow a new housing bubble somehow! We're already half-way there apparently. It hasn't occurred to the president that the first sentence highlighted above is the main cause of what he bemoans in the second highlighted sentence." Indeed! Please consider my December 20, 2013 article All-Cash Home Sales Hit Record 42% of Sales. It's that flood of "all cash" money that has driven up prices. Obama calls it a success. So does Pritchard. Both want more bank credit issuance to complete the bubble reblowing episode. Do Something! Pritchard wants central bankers to "Do Something!" He sounds like a child who broke his toy and expects some miracle to fix it. The fact of the matter is this: Central banks already have done something. They made matters worse by doing exactly what Pritchard asked for. However, that does not please Pritchard. He wants central banks to do still more, at the risk of blowing even bigger asset bubbles in the process. Perfectly Obvious or Obviously Not? It should be perfectly obvious to Pritchard (and everyone else) that if the Fed could control jobs or get banks to lend, it would have happened long ago. Lord knows they tried. Three rounds of QE did not spur lending or hiring in the US. LTRO and near-zero interest rates did not spur lending in Europe. But QE sure did spawn asset bubbles in the US and elsewhere. Pritchad, Lagarde, Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, and others want to ignore massive asset bubbles in equities and bonds. Instead they worry consumer prices are not rising fast enough. Deflation is a Good Thing! Many countries desperately need falling prices to have a chance. Government spending in France is a ridiculous 56% of GDP. Does Pritchard want it to hit 100%? Deflation spurred a welcome revival of Spanish construction companies. In the process, competition lowered costs in France (and that is not just a good thing, but a very needed thing). For further discussion, please see Deflation Will Return: Europe First, Then US; Global Supply Arbitrage Asset Bubbles the Biggest Threat to Banking The only possible context in which deflation can be considered bad is the effect it has on banks and bank lending. Yet, that puts the cart before the horse. It's not deflation that causes the problem, it's increasing loose monetary standards that create asset bubbles (on which much lending is based) that is the real problem. The bigger the asset bubble, the bigger the ultimate threat to banking! Yet Pritchard wants to ignore all that. He wants more of the same "do something" actions of central bankers that created the very problems we have now. Deflation Fighting (Inflation Promotion) Does Five Things
What the Crisis Taught Us Lagarde warns "What the crisis has taught us is that we need to be extremely vigilant and expect bubbles from places that we don't anticipate." Apropos Warning Lagarde warns about the failure to anticipate bubbles. Her warning is very apropos! Central banks never anticipate bubbles. Lagarde cannot even see the huge bubbles that are about ready to explode in her face. Meanwhile, Pritchard wants to ignore bubbles in order to prevent deflation, and Obama complains about income inequality when the source of rising income inequality is Fed policies that create asset bubbles. Lessons Not Learned It's central bank inflationary policies, proposed by Pritchard, Yellen, Bernanke, and many others, that cause bubbles of increasing amplitude over time. Ultimately, all bubbles burst, and the bursting of economic bubbles is the very asset-deflation they need to prevent. And the only way to prevent asset bubbles from bursting is to not blow them in the first place. Clearly the crisis did not teach any of them, anything at all. Wine Country Conference II The deflation debate continues. Want a live discussion of the issues and forces? Want to learn something? Then come to the second annual Wine Country Conference which will be held May 1st & 2nd, 2014. We have an exciting lineup of speakers for this year's conference.
In addition, we expect confirmation from a number of other highly respected fund managers and speakers. This year's event is two days and will include additional "break-out" groups. For speaker bios, please check out Wine Country Conference Speakers. This Year's Cause: Autism $100,000 of the money raised last year came from a generous matching grant from the John P. Hussman Foundation. Some of us in the industry who have done well are making an effort to help others. John Hussman is at the very top of that list. One of John's kids has severe autism. This year, all net proceeds will go to support autism programs. Conference Details For further details about the 2014 conference, please see Wine Country Conference May 1st & 2nd, 2014 Nothing Like It! This event is not just another "come and hear someone talk" kind of thing. Attendees and their significant others can expect an educational, fun, and relaxed time. Last conference, we arranged wine tours. They were a big hit. We will do so again. One of the wine estates we visited had a Bocce Ball court. On a couple of miracle shots, I won both games I played. Stay an extra day and golf or travel. I did. The conference hotel is a fun place in and of itself. Unlike many other conferences, you will have easy access to speakers. Want to chat with me, Steen, John, or anyone else at the conference? You will have an easy chance. Not only do we have an excellent lineup of speakers, you will have an opportunity to meet with them, have intimate discussions on important investment topics, with a lot of fun on the side, including wine tours and great wine. There's nothing like it in the investment business. And your money goes to a great cause! What can be better?  Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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