Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


30-40% of Healthcare.Gov Not Built; Payment and Back Office Pieces Missing; Musical Tribute "Promises, Promises"

Posted: 19 Nov 2013 03:30 PM PST

Drumroll please..... It's T minus 11 days and counting before the fully functional healthcare website president Obama promised by the end of November will be up and running.

Here is the exact Obama quote from a speech in Dallas as noted by the Washington Post

"The web site is already better than it was at the beginning of October, and by the end of this month, we anticipate that it is going to be working the way it is supposed to, all right?"

Sinking Titanic

My favorite comment to the article comes from Jeff1962 who replied "At least the Titanic made it out of port before it sank..."

30-40% of Healthcare.Gov Not Built According to Official

You can count the end-of-November pledge as another promise that cannot and will not be met.

It seems that 30-40% of Healthcare.Gov is not built yet according to Henry Chao, CIO of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the federal agency that operates HealthCare.gov.

CNBC reports Obamacare bombshell: IT official says HealthCare.gov needs payment feature
Another day, another big, bad black eye for HealthCare.gov.

A crucial system for making payments to insurers from people who enroll in that federal Obamacare marketplace has yet to be built, a senior government IT official admitted Tuesday.

"We still need to build the payments system to make the payments [to insurance companies] in January," testified Chao, deputy chief information officer of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the federal agency that operates HealthCare.gov.

That so-called financial management tool was originally supposed to be part of HealthCare.gov when it launched Oct. 1, but officials later suspended its launch as part of their effort to get the consumer interface part of the site ready. The tool will, when it works, transmit the subsidies that the government is kicking in for many enrollees to offset the costs of their monthly premiums.

Chao on Tuesday said other areas that need to be built include "the back-office systems, the accounting systems."

He testified that the consumer interface part of that website, which enrolls people in Obamacare insurance plans, is totally built.

The revelation that the insurers' payment tool wasn't yet built startled some observers. "That's like setting up an online bank without setting up a way to make deposits," an industry source told CNBC.

Chao and other Obama administration officials have been lambasted since Oct. 1 for the glitch-laden launch of HealthCare.gov, which with just 27,000 people enrolled in 36 states over one month has grossly underperformed original expectations. The administration had originally estimated that 7 million people would enroll in Obamacare insurance plans by March 31, but that goal remains in peril.
Obama Personally Sings in Musical Remake

An unconfirmed rumor says president Obama himself will be the lead singer in a musical play remake.

Lending credence to the story, administration insiders gave me an advance mock-up of the flyer.



Musical Tribute "Promises, Promises"



Link if video does not play: Promises, Promises

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Congratulations to Illinois: Most Government Bodies, Most Convicted Governors, Lowest Credit Rating

Posted: 19 Nov 2013 11:32 AM PST

Illinois tries harder. According to the Illinois Policy Institute Illinoisans suffer from the second-highest property tax rates in the nation. Illinois is the third most corrupt state in the nation.

But Illinois is solidly in first place in other categories.

Most Convicted Governors

For example, Illinois is at the top of the list in imprisoned governors.

The Huffington Post notes 4 Of State's Last 7 Governors Were Convicted, Imprisoned

What state can possibly top that?

Lowest Credit Rating

On January 25, 2013 the Chicago Tribune reported Illinois credit rating sinks to worst in nation

Highest Number of Local Governments

Please consider a report on "Too Much Government" that details Illinois' thousands of local government bodies.
Illinois has the most units of local government of any state in the country. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, with 6,963 local governments, Illinois beats its nearest competitor by more than 1,800. Texas is No. 2 with 5,147 local governments.

The average Illinoisan resides in an area that has at least six layers of local government including county, township,
municipality, both a primary and secondary level school district, and a community college district.

It is also quite common to have additional layers of government such as libraries, park districts, forest preserves, fire protection, sanitation, transportation and even mosquito abatement districts. These special districts add unnecessary layers of local government and bureaucracy, leading to expensive duplication of public services.

The result is higher costs for Illinoisans. Local government is primarily financed through local property taxes, and Illinois' high number of governments contributes to the state having the second-highest property tax rates in the nation.

Number of Local Governments

 

Per Capita Basis



The Elgin portion of Kane County has 16 local government agencies.

Kane County Case Study

  1. Forest Preserve District of Kane County
  2. Plato Township Road District
  3. Plato Township Cemetery District
  4. Ella Johnson Memorial Public Library
  5. Fox River Water Reclamation District
  6. Northwest Kane Airport Authority
  7. Pingree Grove & Countryside Fire Protection District
  8. Plato Township Solid Waste Disposal District
  9. Metra
  10. Pace Suburban Bus Service
  11. Regional Transportation Authority
  12. Kane County General Purpose
  13. Plato Township General Purpose
  14. City of Elgin General Purpose
  15. Central School District 301
  16. Elgin Community College

Townships are responsible for roads in unincorporated areas but often provide these services at a much higher cost to taxpayers than municipal or county authorities. According to the Better Government Association: "In Cook County, the 20 townships have 280 miles of roads in unincorporated areas and the average 'cost-per-mile' to maintain them is $80,509 ... In comparison, the average cost to eight north and northwestern Chicago suburbs was $16,030 per mile ... most of these suburbs have four to five times the number of road miles as any township."

That means it's about four times more expensive for townships to maintain these roads.

Special districts

Another redundant unit of local government prevalent in Illinois is "special districts." This classification can cover anything from transportation to public safety to water sanitation to parks and libraries. Illinois has 2,889 special districts, not including townships or school districts.

Property Taxes



Out of more than 3,000 counties nationwide, a number of Illinois counties have property tax rates that put them in the top 100 highest owner-occupied property tax rates in the country.

McHenry County 

I live in McHenry County. Out of thousands of cities and property tax districts nation-wide, we have 24th highest property taxes in the nation. I pay about $14,000 a year in property taxes on a $400,000 home.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

No Money to Retire the New American Nightmare; Retirement at 80 the New Norm?

Posted: 19 Nov 2013 09:57 AM PST

Except for public union workers with pensions that ultimately will not be met, retirement age for most keeps inching up.

People need to work longer or go back to work after a few years of retirement because they have insufficient savings. This creates competition between those over 60 and those under 20 for low-paying jobs.

I have been discussing this for years. This week it hit the cover of the NY Post: 80 is the new 60 when it comes to retirement
Call it the new American nightmare: Running out of money in retirement is scaring the hell out of record numbers of older workers, forcing them to stay in the workforce.

Now 80 is the new 60 when it comes to retirement. Many older workers who finally clock out have sharply underestimated their financial needs in retirement, raising the specter of personal financial disaster.

By putting off retirement the Baby Boomers are a large reason for the high levels of unemployment for those looking to enter the workforce. According to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics the rate of joblessness in people 20- to 25-years old is 12.5 percent, twice the rate of people 25 and older.

These Boomers have plenty of company. The American Dream of retirement at 65 is looking more like a pipe dream to many.

Nearly half of older workers are on the job longer than they had planned to be — on average, by three more years than they estimated at age 40, according to a recent survey of Americans 50 and over by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

And the latest studies shed additional disturbing light:

UBS Wealth Management Americas discovered that most wealthy investors today do not feel "old" until they turn 80. That's a gigantic change from their parents' generation, when "old" was regarded to be about 60. Also, pre-retirees underestimate how much it will take to finance a long and phased-in retirement. Their average expectation is that 58 percent of prior annual income will sustain them. The industry recommends 75 percent to 80 percent.

The percentage of older middle-class Americans who said their day-to-day financial concern is "paying the monthly bills" has climbed from 52 percent last year to 59 percent today, according to Wells Fargo. Saving for retirement comes in second. Four in 10 say saving and paying the bills is "not possible."

Older adults are now the fastest-growing share of the US labor force. By 2020, workers 55 and older will comprise a stunning 25 percent of the civilian labor force.
I posted the following charts by Tim Wallace in October (see Workforce, Population, Jobs by Age-Group), but since they tie in, here they are again.

click on any chart for sharper image

Workforce Since 1970



Percent of Population in Workforce Since 1970



Number in Age Group Employed



Percent of Age Group Employed Since 1970



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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