Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Robot Reality: "Last Resort" Service Jobs Next to Go; "Baxter" Back in the News Posted: 29 Mar 2013 06:14 PM PDT I have written about "Baxter" before. Baxter is not a person. Rather Baxter is a robot rapidly replacing humans in various manufacturing jobs. See Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage, No Benefits, Part-Time Job, Because He's Still Much Cheaper; Fed Cannot Win a Fight Against Robots. Service Jobs Next to Go Baxter is back in the news. The Fiscal Times says The Robot Reality: Service Jobs Are Next to Go. If you meet Baxter, the latest humanoid robot from Rethink Robotics – you should get comfortable with him, because you'll likely be seeing more of him soon. Rethink Robotics released Baxter last fall and received an overwhelming response from the manufacturing industry, selling out of their production capacity through April. He's cheap to buy ($22,000), easy to train, and can safely work side-by-side with humans. He's just what factories need to make their assembly lines more efficient – and yes, to replace costly human workers. But manufacturing is only the beginning. This April, Rethink will launch a software platform that will allow Baxter to do a more complex sequencing of tasks – for example, picking up a part, holding it in front of an inspection station and receiving a signal to place it in a "good" or "not good" pile. The company is also releasing a software development kit soon that will allow third parties – like university robotics researchers – to create applications for Baxter. These third parties "are going to do all sorts of stuff we haven't envisioned," says Scott Eckert, CEO of Rethink Robotics. He envisions something similar to Apple's app store happening for Baxter. A spiffed-up version of the robot could soon be seen flipping burgers at McDonalds, folding t-shirts at Gap, or pouring coffee at Starbucks. What's worrisome to Martin Ford [robotics expert and author of The Lights In the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future] is that these jobs have been offering a huge safety net to the middle class. They're jobs he calls "the jobs of last resort." When someone can't find a salaried job, they look for lower-paying service jobs to get by – and because the jobs typically have a high turnover rate, they're more likely to be available. Think of all the college graduates who take jobs as cashiers or baristas before they find salaried work. If those jobs were to vanish, those workers would be forced to file for unemployment instead." Jobs of Last Resort The Fed and the Obama administration are both clueless as to why this is happening and what to do about it. Obama wants to raise minimum wages. He also sponsored Obamacare that is going to cost businesses plenty. Those moves encourage automation. On its part, the Fed has driven interest rates to zero. When money is that cheap, all kinds of capital expenditures that would not otherwise be affordable, quickly become affordable. Technology is actually a good thing. Few see it that way because the Fed has destroyed the value of the dollar and Obama is hell bent on giving businesses a reason to outsource jobs to robots as fast as they can. To be fair, much of this is natural workforce evolution. However, the Fed and the Obama administration goosed the trend at the worst possible time. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Arizona Lawmakers Advance Bill Allowing Gold and Silver as Money; Bureaucratic Nightmare? Posted: 29 Mar 2013 10:09 AM PDT I have encouraging news in the state of Arizona where lawmakers back gold, silver as currency. The measure is Arizona's latest jab at the federal government, which prohibits states from minting their own money. It also reflects a growing distrust of government-backed money. The bill, which advanced in a 4-2 vote by a House committee Monday, states that gold and silver should be legal currency not subject to tax or regulation as property. The Republican-led Senate gave the bill its blessing in February in a 17-11 partisan vote. The bill would let people use the precious metals as money as long as businesses agree to take them. If made law, it would take effect in 2014. Democrats oppose the measure. They say it would be a bureaucratic nightmare because businesses don't have the equipment to determine the value of gold and silver. Bureaucratic Nightmare? Nonsense. The bill is well written and extremely well thought out. It does not force companies to accept gold or silver (nor should it), it merely allows businesses to do so if they want. Any company that does not want to deal with gold or silver will not have to. So where's the nightmare? States will not be minting their own money under such a proposal (nor should they) so there is no conflict on that part of Federal law. I commend this bill, expect Arizona lawmakers to pass it, and urge the Governor to sign it. When that happens, gold will once again be legal money. I support gold as money and believe gold is money whether or not the bill passes. There is significant reason for people to distrust government-sponsored fiat currencies backed by nothing. I made the case recently in Fraudulent Guarantees; Fictional Reserve Lending; Comparison of US to Cyprus; What About New Zealand? Here is a brief synopsis, but I encourage you to read the full article. Monetary Recap Base Money Supply: $2.9 Trillion M1: 2.4 Trillion M2: 10.4 Trillion Total Credit Market Debt Owed: $56.3 trillion One Giant Ponzi Scheme Clearly far more money has been lent than exists. How can it possibly be paid back? If it can't be paid back, how good is a government guarantee on deposits? In 2010 Bernanke proposed ending reserve requirements completely, but long-time Mish readers understand what Bernanke proposed is the de facto state of affairs already. (see the above link for an explanation). Five Key Points In a Fractional Reserve Lending scheme, the notion there are meaningful reserves is ridiculous. Far more money has been lent out than really exists (the rest is a fictional accounting entry). Fractional reserve lending constitutes fraud (just as lending something you do not own is fraud). There is no way for all this money to be paid back (so it won't be). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has the most sensible policy on deposit insurance of all the world's central banks. (NZ offers no deposit insurance). See my article for a full explanation. In the sake of full disclosure, I own gold, silver, platinum, as well as shares in various mining corporations. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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