Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Only 23% of US Companies Plan to Hire in Next 6 Months; "Lights Out" Moment Coming Up
ECB Advocates Forcing Senior Bondholders to Take Losses on Spanish Debt; What's It Mean?
Loan Moratorium in Italy for Small and Medium-Sized Businesses; GDP Expected to Contract 2 Percent
Political Cartoons Place Blame on Scranton PA Bankruptcy Saga Squarely Where it Belongs: Public Unions
U.S. Building Criminal Cases in Libor Scandal; Where Does Mish Stand?

Only 23% of US Companies Plan to Hire in Next 6 Months; "Lights Out" Moment Coming Up

Posted: 15 Jul 2012 09:50 PM PDT

According to the latest survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) hiring over the next six months looks grim.

A NABE Poll Shows Fewer U.S. Companies Planning to Hire

Only 23 percent of the firms polled in June plan to add to staff in the next six months, the National Association for Business Economics said on Monday.

NABE's prior survey, conducted in late March and early April, had shown 39 percent of companies planning to add workers.

A July 6 Labor Department report, showed companies asked employees to work longer hours last month, even though they slowed the pace of hiring.

Among companies that produce goods rather than provide services, the impact was even greater, with nearly four in five reporting a Europe-driven decline in revenues.

Three months earlier, only about a quarter of total firms polled thought sales had fallen

Lights Out Moment Coming Up

This report is consistent with my report US Manufacturing ISM Contracts for First Time in Three Years; New Orders and Prices Plunge; Perfect Miss: 0 of 70 Economists Polled By Bloomberg Expected Contraction

Hiring plans are also consistent with the Case for US and Global Recession Right Here, Right Now.

All of a sudden, consumers and businesses alike are going to have a "lights out" moment where orders dry up, hiring dries up, and unemployment heads North.

If the NABE poll is correct (and it is certainly consistent with other data), that time has arrived.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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ECB Advocates Forcing Senior Bondholders to Take Losses on Spanish Debt; What's It Mean?

Posted: 15 Jul 2012 03:49 PM PDT

In a surprise but welcome move, the ECB Shifts View on Bond Losses.

The European Central Bank, in a sharp turnaround, has advocated imposing losses on holders of senior bonds issued by the most severely damaged Spanish savings banks, though finance ministers have for now rejected the approach, according to people familiar with discussions.

The ECB's new position was made clear by its president, Mario Draghi, to a meeting of euro-zone finance ministers discussing a euro-zone rescue for Spain's struggling local lenders in Brussels the evening of July 9.

The ministers rejected the advice out of concern that financial markets would react badly to the decision. [Mish translation: Finance ministers want to screw the taxpayers to save the wealthy].

Imposing losses on bondholders reduces the amount of money taxpayers need to inject into struggling banks. One euro-zone official said the desire to avoid putting more public money at risk than necessary was one reason behind the ECB's change of heart since 2010. The ECB's new stance can also be explained by the different scenarios, including the existence of a bank-restructuring framework for Spain that didn't exist for Ireland, and the fact that the Irish government, unlike Spain's, guaranteed much of its banks' debts.

What's It Mean?

Take your pick from the following possibilities.

Losses at Spanish banks are way bigger than reported by Spain's prime minister Mariano Rajoy.
Losses at Spanish banks are such that they would blow out the entirety of the ESM
ECB president Mario Draghi is concerned about a reaction from the German constitutional court
German chancellor Angela Merkel warned Draghi in no uncertain terms that German taxpayers would not pony up any more money for bailouts.
ECB has recognized the approach in Ireland was a failure

I suspect all of those are true. I also expect Irish citizens will be hopping mad over how they were treated (as well they should be).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Loan Moratorium in Italy for Small and Medium-Sized Businesses; GDP Expected to Contract 2 Percent

Posted: 15 Jul 2012 12:47 PM PDT

Italy's new economic minister expects 2012 GDP fall "little less" than 2 percent.

Italy's GDP is expected to shrink "a little less" than 2 percent, the country's new economy minister Vittorio Grilli said in a newspaper interview published on Sunday.

Grilli, who took over the economy portfolio from Prime Minister Mario Monti on Wednesday, made his comments in a long interview with the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

The Bank of Italy governor has forecast that the economy will shrink by 2.0 percent and employers' lobby Confindustria has forecast a contraction of more than 2.4 percent.

Optimistic Politicians

Given that politicians are nearly always overly-optimistic in such forecasts, look for a collapse in GDP closer to 3% than 2%.

Italy Loan Moratorium for Small and Medium-Sized Businesses

Please note that things are so bad that Italian Loan Moratorium Approved.

Small and medium-size Italian companies will be permitted to suspend payments on 3.6 billion euros ($4.4 billion) of debt for as long as a year, the Finance Ministry of Italy said on Saturday.

Since a loan moratorium began on March 1, Italian companies have made 16,000 applications to postpone 5.5 billion euros of payments, the ministry said. About 10,000 applications were processed through May, and the rest are being addressed.

The nation's business associations and the Italian Banking Association agreed this year to extend an earlier moratorium to cope with the country's fourth recession since 2001. The previous moratorium, begun in August 2009, allowed 260,000 companies to delay 15 billion euros of payments, the association said in February.

This moratorium is nothing more than an attempt to keep bankrupt and underperforming businesses alive. In a free market, uncompetitive businesses should fail. Thus, the moratorium is a mistake.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Political Cartoons Place Blame on Scranton PA Bankruptcy Saga Squarely Where it Belongs: Public Unions

Posted: 15 Jul 2012 10:54 AM PDT

It's time once again for Sunday funnies. This time, let's take a look at Daryl Cagle's Cartoon Web Log.

Cagle asked John Cole, the staff cartoonist for the Scranton Times-Tribune , what his thoughts were on the news. Cole went back to November of 2010 and came up with 7 cartoons. Here are two of them.

Daryl writes "A state court sided with the police and fire unions, thus putting Scranton on the hook for tens of millions of dollars to cover back pay and future pay raises. The city hadn't anywhere near the means to cover the tab. It still doesn't, in fact."

Daryl writes "Around Christmas last year, the state Supreme Court sided with the city's police and fire unions, effectively saying that the state's recovery plan cannot preempt arbitration or the unions' contracts and ending the city's legal argument. This set the stage for the city's current financial nightmare."

For background on this story please see Scranton Mayor Slashes All Public Worker Wages to $7.25 per Hour, Including Police, Fire, His Own; City Effectively Bankrupt

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

U.S. Building Criminal Cases in Libor Scandal; Where Does Mish Stand?

Posted: 15 Jul 2012 01:05 AM PDT

Numerous people have asked me to comment on the LIBOR rate-rigging scandal. I have not done so previously because I had little to add.

Zerohedge has done a fine job breaking every story. So have others.

I prefer to comment when I have an edge of some kind: a different angle, a different source, or if I can offer a more comprehensive analysis than other writers.

As pertains to LIBOR, I still have no earth-shattering reports or breaking news. Rather, I am commenting because of repeated questions as to where I stand on the story.

Given the nature and magnitude of the story, that is a fair question from readers.

Criminal Investigations Pending

Before discussing where I stand, let's consider the latest headline from the New York Times: U.S. Is Building Criminal Cases in Rate-Fixing

As regulators ramp up their global investigation into the manipulation of interest rates, the Justice Department has identified potential criminal wrongdoing by big banks and individuals at the center of the scandal.

The department's criminal division is building cases against several financial institutions and their employees, including traders at Barclays, the British bank, according to government officials close to the case who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the investigation is continuing. The authorities expect to file charges against at least one bank later this year, one of the officials said.

Authorities around the globe are examining whether financial firms manipulated interest rates before and after the financial crisis to improve their profits and deflect scrutiny about their health. Investigators in Washington and London sent a warning shot to the industry last month, striking a $450 million settlement with Barclays in a rate-rigging case. The deal does not shield Barclays employees from criminal prosecution.

The multiyear investigation has ensnared more than 10 big banks in the United States and abroad. With the prospects of criminal action, several firms, including at least two European institutions, are scrambling to arrange deals, according to lawyers close to the case. In part, they are trying to avoid the public outcry that stemmed from the Barclays case, which prompted the resignation of top executives.

Given the scope of the problems and the number of institutions involved, the rate-rigging investigation could provide a signature moment to hold big banks accountable for their activities during the financial crisis.

"It's hard to imagine a bigger case than Libor," said one of the government officials involved in the case.

According to people briefed on the matter, the Swiss bank UBS is among the next targets for regulatory action. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is pursuing a potential civil case against the bank. Regulators at the agency have not yet decided to file an action against the bank, nor have settlement talks begun.

UBS has already reached an immunity deal with one division of the Justice Department, which could protect the bank from criminal prosecution if certain conditions are met. The bank declined to comment.

What is LIBOR?

For those not up-to-date on the story, LIBOR stands for London Interbank Offered Rate. It is the benchmark measure of how much banks charge each other for bank-to-bank lending.

Many mortgages and trillions of dollars in derivatives are based off LIBOR.

LIBOR works off the "honor system". Banks are asked how much they would have to pay to borrow from other banks.

My Take

Long-term readers should know where I stand. LiborGate is an open-and-shut case of criminal fraud.

When banks have a vested interest to lie, especially when they think it will all be swept under the rug later, they lie. And lie they did. Traders quoted prices requested by bank officials. Emails prove it, as widely reported elsewhere.

I want to see bank executives criminally charged.

Moreover, I am tired of bank responses we will put "better firewalls in place".

F*** "Better" Firewalls

The only firewall that makes sense for LIBOR is actual bank-to-bank transactions.

In the case of bank proprietary trading in general, the only thing that will work is a complete physical separation of entities. Yes, that means breaking up banks. Expecting employees to not talk to each other is simply ridiculous.

Banks should be banks, not hedge funds.

I welcome the return of Glass-Steagall. No doubt, that statement will have some Libertarians howl. I don't care. Regulations that prevent fraud and preserve property rights are entirely fine by me. Libertarianism is not the same as anarchy.

That said, the root cause of this mess is an unsound financial system and fractional reserve lending (not the prior removal of Glass-Steagall).

Banks take advantage of the system, every way they can, legal or illegal.

The system needs to change, in many ways, in many places. In the meantime, criminal prosecution of those who break laws is desperately needed.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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Sunday, July 15, 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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