Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Retail Investors Shun Speculation and Stuff Money under the Mattress; Is this a Contrary Indicator?
Ceridian Fuel Index Positive for Third Month but "Too Small to Make Up for Lost Ground Last Six Months"
EU Iran Oil Embargo Likely Delayed Six Months; Obama Sends Teams of Consultants Worldwide Hoping to "Manage Supply and Demand of Oil"; Phased In Oil Shock
Greek 1-Year Bond Yield Tops 408 Percent; Hard Default Appears Imminent
Greece Bank Creditor Group Says Talks ‘Paused for Reflection’; S&P to Cut Some Euro Zone Countries on Friday; Euro Sinks to New Low for the Move
ECB Says Credit Crunch Averted; Yet ECB Overnight Deposits Again Hit Record High; Skyrocketing ECB Balance Sheet

Retail Investors Shun Speculation and Stuff Money under the Mattress; Is this a Contrary Indicator?

Posted: 13 Jan 2012 05:35 PM PST

Madeline Schnapp at TrimTabs writes via email ...

TrimTabs flow research shows that retail investors are stuffing money into the mattress. So tell me again how all this money printing by the Fed has helped retail investors?

Best,
Madeline

Via Press TrimTabs says "Retail Investors Shun Speculation and Stuff Money under the Mattress".

Sausalito, CA – January 13, 2012 – TrimTabs Investment Research said today that in the first 11 months of 2011, investors poured eight times more money into checking and savings accounts as they did into stock and bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds.

"The Fed is doing almost everything in its power to entice investors to speculate in overpriced asset markets," said TrimTabs Executive Vice President David Santschi. "But retail investors aren't taking the bait."

In a research note, TrimTabs explained that $889 billion poured into checking and savings accounts in the first 11 months of 2011 (complete data for December 2011 is not available). This inflow was more than eight times greater than the $109 billion that flowed into stock and bond mutual funds and ETFs.

"It's remarkable that inflows into checking and savings accounts outstripped inflows into stock and bond mutual funds and ETFs in each of the first 11 months of 2011," said Santschi.

Santschi added that in the latest three months from September 2011 through November 2011, the $139 billion inflow into checking and savings accounts was almost 13 times higher than the $11 billion inflow into stock and bond mutual funds and ETFs.

"Most portfolio managers desperately want to believe the economy will improve so they can pocket bigger bonus checks for 2012 than they'll be taking home for 2011," said Santschi. "But the economy isn't likely to get off to the races as long as investors are stuffing most of their money under the mattress."

Money Under the Mattress Video

Link if video does not play: Santschi's Daily Edge 1/12/2012: The Real Money Goes under the Mattress

Is this a Contrary Indicator?

Retail investors are frequently a contrary indicator. Is that the case here or is this simply reality setting in? Another option is boomers out of work via retirement (forced or voluntary) need to tap into their savings to live or to maintain lifestyle.

My guess is retiring boomer demographics is clearly in play here, and a combination of related ideas are the driving force behind what TrimTabs reports.

Retail investors finally realize things are not as good as portrayed by government and mainstream media
Retail investors believe things are not going to get better soon
Volatility is unnerving
Some boomers are tapping savings to maintain lifestyle
Some are tapping savings because they are out of a job and have to

Simply put, retail investors have given up and are not coming back. Some can't because they have no job. Others won't because they have had enough.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Ceridian Fuel Index Positive for Third Month but "Too Small to Make Up for Lost Ground Last Six Months"

Posted: 13 Jan 2012 10:38 AM PST

Inquiring minds are digging into the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Fuel Index for December 2011 report released today.

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, rose 0.2 percent in December following the 0.1 percent increase in November and the 1.1 percent increase in October. Unfortunately, the combined effect of the three consecutive positive months was not enough to offset the weakness of trucking last summer and the PCI in December 2011 is 1.2 percent below its June 2011 level and 0.7 percent below its level a year ago in December 2010.

With all three months of the fourth quarter now available, we are able to make an informed assessment of the likely rate of growth of fourth quarter GDP. The fourth quarter PCI was up over the third quarter; but only by 0.5 percent at an annualized rate. The good news here is that this positive 0.5 percent growth of rate for the PCI in the fourth quarter was much better than the third quarter, which suffered a decline at an annualized rate of 4.2 percent.

The PCI annualized rate of growth of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter is consistent with an estimated GDP growth of 2 percent or less. Although Wall Street economists have jacked up their "backcasts" for fourth quarter GDP growth to 3 percent or higher, the fundamentals as indicated by the fourth-quarter PCI are not so favorable.

Many of these Wall Street economists are basing their improved forecasts on expectations regarding a healthy contribution of inventories to GDP growth. The PCI does not support this view. The PCI measures inventories destined for factories, stores and homes, and the third quarter decline in the PCI correctly anticipated the large negative contribution of inventories to GDP growth. The BEA estimate of the inventory contribution to GDP growth for the third quarter has been varying around -1.5 percent as the data are revised, and is currently at -1.4 percent. That is almost as large as the estimated GDP growth of 1.8 percent. Absent that inventory negative, the rate of growth would have been 2.2 percent.

The fourth quarter PCI of plus 0.5 percent suggests only a modest positive contribution of inventories in the fourth quarter, which implies a GDP forecast that is not as optimistic as many Wall Street economists believe.

However, with real retail sales growing more rapidly than the PCI over the last two quarters, the first half of 2012 may be an inventory-rebuilding period, allowing inventories to make a substantial contribution to GDP growth. This would be very supportive of the recent improvement in the labor market, which may finally be entering a positivefeedback loop during which more jobs help create even more jobs.

Here is a video with Chief PCI® economist, Ed Leamer, on the December results.

3-Month Ceridian Index Moving Average

click on chart for sharper image

Ceridian fuel usage is diesel fuel for truckers. For Gasoline usage and petroleum usage in general, please see Year-Over-Year Gasoline and Petroleum Usage Charts; Shares Decline as Chevron Warns of Weaker 4th Quarter Earnings.

Ceridian Index vs. Retail Sales

That divergence between trucking fuel usage and retail sales is about to resolve to the downside for retail sales.

For details, please see Retail Sales Up Scant .1% in December, Core Retail Sales Decline; Chart of Retail Sales Adjusted for Population Growth and Inflation

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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EU Iran Oil Embargo Likely Delayed Six Months; Obama Sends Teams of Consultants Worldwide Hoping to "Manage Supply and Demand of Oil"; Phased In Oil Shock

Posted: 13 Jan 2012 09:48 AM PST

Under pretense of looking for other sources of oil, EU Iran Oil Embargo Over Nuclear Work Said Likely to Be Delayed Six Months

A European Union embargo on imports of Iranian (OPCRIRAN) oil will probably be delayed for six months to let countries such as Greece, Italy and Spain find alternative supplies, two EU officials with knowledge of the talks said.

The embargo, which would need to be accepted by the 27- nation bloc's foreign ministers on Jan. 23, is also likely to include an exemption for Italy, so crude can be sold to pay off debts to Rome-based Eni SpA (ENI), Italy's largest oil company, according to the officials, who declined to be identified because the talks are private.

A ban on petrochemical products would start sooner, about three months after EU ministers agree to the measure, one official said yesterday. Once a decision is made, member states would be barred from concluding new oil contracts with Iran or renewing those that are due to expire, while existing deals will be terminated within six months, according to a second diplomat today. Long-term contracts constitute the bulk of Europe's purchases of Iranian oil.

Phasing in the European embargo would satisfy the concern of nations most dependent on Iranian crude, including Italy, Greece and Spain, the first EU official said. Those three nations accounted for 68.5 percent of EU imports from Iran in 2010, according to European Commission data.

As Europe weighs its embargo, President Barack Obama's administration has sent teams worldwide to consult with countries on managing the supply and demand of oil, according to an administration official who briefed reporters in Washington.

OPEC's other members would be able to make up for a drop in Iranian oil supply if the EU agrees to an embargo, said Chakib Khelil, the group's former president. Even so, prices may temporarily rally to as high as $200 a barrel on news of any such blockade, he said today in London.

"It should be possible to replace, at least, the European consumption of Iranian oil," Khelil said in an interview with Mark Barton on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move."

Obama's Arrogance Coupled With Economic Idiocy

Anone who thinks president Obama can manage the supply and demand of oil is a fool. Sending teams worldwide in an attempt to do that is not only the height of arrogance, it is economic idiocy

Phased In Oil Shock

Iran is OPEC's second largest oil producer. Bloomberg estimates that Iran pumped 3.58 million barrels of crude a day last month.

The idea that Iran's oil supply can easily be replaced is pure nonsense.

Phasing in an embargo is the same as phasing in higher prices smack in the midst of an already guaranteed monster European recession.

Given that US Defense Secretary Admits "Iran Not Trying to Develop Nuclear Weapon" this move by the US and Europe is not only economic suicide, it is an illegal act of war as well.

Can China Benefit From Obama's Move?

Superficially, the only possible beneficiary to Obama's and the EU's economic warfare is China.

For details, please see China Snubs Geithner on Iran Oil; China Gets Cheaper Iran Oil as U.S. Pays Tab for Hormuz Patrols; Retired Admiral Warns "US Policy Benefits the Chinese"

However, it's important to understand that Chinese "benefit" is an illusion, in isolation.

In aggregate, oil-dependent countries including China cannot conceivably benefit from an oil shock or higher oil prices because global trade will collapse. OPEC exporters may temporarily benefit from higher prices but the expense will be falling usage and a strengthening worldwide recession.

If one wonders why Iran may want nuclear weapons, the US and EU have certainly given Iran sufficient reasons.

How to Stop the Madness

This proposed embargo is economic idiocy as well as an act of war by the US and EU on Iran.

Once again I point out that President Obama has continued the inane policies of President Bush. Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney would do the same.

If one wishes to end the economic and war-mongering madness, there is only one electable choice: Ron Paul.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Greek 1-Year Bond Yield Tops 408 Percent; Hard Default Appears Imminent

Posted: 13 Jan 2012 08:49 AM PST

In conjunction with a "Pause for Reflection" and stalled talks by Greece Bank Creditor Group over the benefits of further "voluntary" cuts on Greek debt, yield on 1-year Greek bonds soared over 400%.

A hard default appears imminent.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Greece Bank Creditor Group Says Talks ‘Paused for Reflection’; S&P to Cut Some Euro Zone Countries on Friday; Euro Sinks to New Low for the Move

Posted: 13 Jan 2012 08:10 AM PST

Less than a day ago ECB president Mario Draghi was bragging "Credit Crunch Averted" noting the Euro's first weekly gain in five-weeks. Unfortunately for Draghi, there was still one day left in the week.

Greece Bank Creditor Group Says Talks 'Paused for Reflection'

Bloomberg reports Greece Bank Creditor Group Says Talks 'Paused for Reflection'

Talks between Greece and its creditor banks were put on hold after negotiations in Athens failed to yield an agreement.

A proposal put forward by the steering committee representing financial firms has "not produced a constructive consolidated response by all parties," the Institute of International Finance said in an e-mailed statement today. "Under the circumstances, discussions with Greece and the official sector are paused for reflection on the benefits of a voluntary approach."

The IIF's Charles Dallara and Jean Lemierre had met for a second day in Athens with Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, aiming for a deal in the euro area's first large restructuring. The committee had offered a 50 percent nominal reduction of Greece's sovereign bonds in private investors' hands and as much as 100 billion ($127 billion) of debt forgiveness, the IIF said.

Greece hasn't yet decided whether to submit legislation that could force holders of the nation's debt to take part in a bond swap, according to a government spokesman who said his earlier remarks on the matter were misinterpreted.

European Debt Downgrades

Reuters reports S&P to Cut Some Euro Zone Countries on Friday

Standard & Poor's is set to downgrade the credit ratings of several euro zone countries later on Friday, but not those of Germany and the Netherlands, a senior euro zone government source said.

Another source confirmed "several" countries would be hit.

French TV, citing a government source, said France's credit rating would be downgraded and another source said Slovakia, the euro zone's second poorest country currently rated A+ by S&P, would suffer the same fate.

Euro Sinks to New Low for the Move

On some combination of the above news, the Euro reversed strong gains, falling to a new low for the move, down to 1.2627 from a high of 1.2884. That is a very big intraday currency swing of 2.57 cents vs. the US dollar.

Euro 15 Minute Chart

Creditors "Paused for Reflection, so should Mario Draghi.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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ECB Says Credit Crunch Averted; Yet ECB Overnight Deposits Again Hit Record High; Skyrocketing ECB Balance Sheet

Posted: 13 Jan 2012 01:45 AM PST

Following a relatively tiny two-day rally in the Euro the ECB blows its horn with a statement Credit Crunch Averted

The euro rose, extending its first weekly gain versus the dollar in six weeks, as Italian bonds advanced and after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers have averted a credit shortage.

The 17-nation currency climbed against all but two of its 16 major counterparts as Spanish debt also rallied as Italy prepared to sell notes today. The Dollar Index (SPX) dropped for a second day before a U.S. report forecast to show consumer confidence improved this month, reducing demand for the U.S. currency as a haven.

Draghi said the central bank's massive injection of cash into the financial system last month is beginning to flow through into credit markets. "There are tentative signs of stabilization of economic activity," he said in Frankfurt after the ECB's policy meeting yesterday. Policy makers kept the benchmark rate at a record low of 1 percent after two straight quarter-point reductions.

Draghi's Statement in Perspective

After a 5-week decline, some snapback in the Euro is to be expected. The impetus is just as likely to be the action by the ECB to hold interest rates at 1% as anything else.

Actually, given extreme bearish sentiment on the Euro, no reason at all is needed for a euro relief rally.

For a look at sentiment including charts of record-high short interest on Euro futures, please see Euro Suffers Longest Losing Streak Since 2010; Record High Speculative Short Positions; Big Specs vs. Currency Movements; Not Timing Devices written January 8.

ECB Overnight Deposits Again Hit Record High

As for the idea a "credit crunch has been averted", please consider the Wall Street Journal report for January 13 that says ECB Overnight Deposits Again Hit Record High

Euro-zone banks' overnight deposits with the European Central Bank hit yet another all-time high Thursday, likely reflecting continued funding pressures in the banking sector as well as the approaching end of the reserve period.

Banks deposited €489.906 billion ($627.77 billion), the central bank said Friday, up from €470.632 billion Wednesday.

The daily deposits have been extremely high since banks in December tapped the ECB for its first-ever three-year loan. ECB President Mario Draghi Thursday said the extra long-term facility has been successful at preventing a serious credit contraction in the banking sector. The ECB launched the operation to address the fact more than €200 billion in bank loans was coming due in the first quarter, Mr. Draghi added.

Some analysts attribute that the ever-increasing deposits to the fact that banks are hoarding their excess funds—a good deal of which originate from the three-year ECB loan—by channeling them back to the central bank.

However, Mr. Draghi dismissed that idea at his press conference Thursday. He said the banks drawing on the ECB's refinancing operation are "by and large" different from those banks that have been depositing their funds with the ECB overnight.

European Banks Hoarding Cash

European banks aren't lending now, nor will they lend any time soon as discussed in German Economy Contracts in 4th Quarter; Spain's Industrial Output Plunges 7%; UK Trade Deficit Widens; European Banks Wisely Hoard Cash

Skyrocketing ECB Balance Sheet

The reason for debt rally is not that a credit crunch has been avoided, but rather, the ECB has become the lender of only resort, bloating its balance sheet to record levels.

Please consider Swelling ECB Balance Sheet Brings Relief, Poses Risk For Euro

The European Central Bank's increasingly swollen balance sheet has helped calm volatile markets, but some believe it could itself become a problem and bring more volatility to the 17-nation currency bloc.

Nearly a year's worth of anticrisis lending measures have sent the ECB's books to a record EUR2.73 trillion, some 29% of the euro zone's gross domestic product. This expansion, capturing both the collateral pledged by banks receiving funds from the central bank and the sovereign bonds it has purchased for its own account, has been welcomed by bond investors, who see it as a stabilizing force. But the excess liquidity bodes for a weaker euro, and has some wondering if the ECB's own solvency could eventually be in peril.

Many investors are concerned that a default in the Hellenic republic could ricochet across the 17-nation currency bloc. That could renew an assault on other euro-zone bond markets that are already distressed.

More worrisome are relaxed collateral rules. When the ECB introduced a three-year tender last month at generous 1% interest rates, more than 500 banks gorged themselves on a record EUR489 billion of the central bank's cash. Some commentators worry that a worsening of peripheral bond markets could endanger securities pledged by the banks, posing a considerable solvency threat to the central bank.

"The quality of the balance sheet deteriorates as it expands, which is doubly problematic," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York.

European banks are dumping sovereign debt at record levels on the ECB. Germany and France are on the hook. 10-year Italian bonds are down substantially, but the rate is still 6.5% with the ECB the buyer of only resort.

Good luck with that policy as Europe heads into a massive recession.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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