Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Donald Trump's Self-Serving Circus Sideshow; Gingrich Fawns Over Trump; Mish Proposes an Alternative Debate
• S&P Places 15 Eurozone Countries, Including Germany and France, on Credit Watch Negative
• Decade-Long European Recession Coming Up; Reflections on the Un-Level Playing Field
• Daily Show on "Free Money"

Donald Trump's Self-Serving Circus Sideshow; Gingrich Fawns Over Trump; Mish Proposes an Alternative Debate Posted: 05 Dec 2011 09:00 PM PST Donald Trump has invited all the Republican presidential candidates to a debate. Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman promptly and properly turned down the offer. In contrast, Newt Gingrich, hoping for a Trump endorsement, made a pilgrimage to Donald. One must understand upfront this is not a gracious offer by Donald Trump to conduct a a fair debate. This is a self-serving promotion by Don Trump, for Don Trump, to put none other than Don Trump into the spotlight as kingmaker. In Response to Trump's Offer Ron Paul's campaign chairman said "The selection of a reality television personality to host a presidential debate that voters nationwide will be watching is beneath the office of the Presidency and flies in the face of that office's history and dignity. Mr. Trump's participation as moderator will distract from questions and answers concerning important issues such as the national economy, crushing federal government debt, the role of the federal government, foreign policy, and the like. To be sure, Mr. Trump's participation will contribute to an unwanted circus-like atmosphere". Ron Paul Jabs Trump The Huffington Post reports Ron Paul Jabs Donald Trump: 'I Didn't Know He Had The Ability To Anoint People' "I don't understand the marching to his office. I didn't know he had the ability to lay on hands and anoint people," said Paul on CNN's "State of the Union." The row between the two began when Paul announced he'd be boycotting the Dec. 27 GOP presidential debate because Trump was chosen to moderate it. Paul's position in the race seems to be on the rise. A Des Moines Register poll found Paul pulling ahead of Mitt Romney in Iowa, securing the second place spot behind Newt Gingrich. Matt Dowd, former campaign strategist for President George W. Bush, recently said he would not be at all surprised if Paul wins the Iowa caucuses. Gingrich Fawns Over Trump There is only one candidate that has sucked up to Trump's self-serving offer. That person is Newt Gingrich. Please consider Republicans Critical of Trump Debate Republican strategists on Monday bemoaned the prospect of a presidential debate hosted by Donald Trump even as Newt Gingrich, surging in recent polls, made a pilgrimage to see Mr. Trump, a billionaire real estate mogul and reality TV star. Mr. Gingrich arrived Monday at Trump Tower in New York to a crush of media, the latest Republican presidential candidate to court Mr. Trump. Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, and other candidates have also made the trip. "Donald Trump is a great showman," Mr. Gingrich told reporters after his closed-door meeting. Mr. Gingrich has accepted an invitation by Mr. Trump to participate in a debate days before the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3. But leading Republican strategists and campaign officials on Monday condemned a Trump-moderated debate as a spectacle that would do more harm to the party than good. Mr. Trump grabbed headlines this year by seizing on the "birther" issue, questioning where President Obama was born, and he continues to dangle the idea of an independent bid for the White House next year. Karl Rove, the former political adviser to President George W. Bush, railed against the idea of a debate hosted by Mr. Trump. In an appearance on Fox News on Monday, Mr. Rove called on Reince Priebus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, to put a stop to the debate. "What the heck are the Republican candidates doing showing up at a debate with a guy who says 'I may run for president next year as an independent,'" Mr. Rove said. "I think the Republican National chairman ought to step in and say we strongly discourage every candidate from appearing." Mish Proposes an Alternative Debate There is no need to stop the Trump circus. Let Gingrich go. If Romney wants to go too, let him. The two can debate to their heart's content with a Circus-Clown Pseudo-Republican "Great Showman" as the moderator. Meanwhile, let's have another debate without distractions like Don Trump. More importantly, let's have a real debate without distractions like Newt Gingrich and any other Republican fools willing to fawn all over Don Trump as if Trump's "power to anoint" was worth a plug nickel. Hello News Organizations... Is there any news organization willing to sponsor an alternate debate, a real debate, preferably one that gives equal response time to candidates Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman? After all, Paul and Huntsman are the only candidates with enough common sense to see what the proposal by Trump is really all about, and promptly decline the offer. Also note that both Paul and Huntsman, unlike the other candidates have put forth serious economic proposals. Moreover, neither is likely to start another major war. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

S&P Places 15 Eurozone Countries, Including Germany and France, on Credit Watch Negative Posted: 05 Dec 2011 07:43 PM PST In a move sure to antagonize EU officials the S&P put 15 Eurozone countries on "Credit Watch Negative". The ratings agency placed the ratings of 15 euro zone countries, including top-rated nations Germany and France, on credit watch negative -- a move that signals a possible downgrade in no later than three months. S&P said, however, it expects to conclude its review "as soon as possible" following this week's summit of EU leaders on Friday. The action was "prompted by our belief that systemic stresses in the eurozone have risen in recent weeks to the extent that they now put downward pressure on the credit standing of the eurozone as a whole," the ratings agency said in a statement. There are 17 Eurozone nations and Greece is already rated CC (near-default). Given that Cyprus was downgraded recently, this is an effective downgrade of every country in the Eurozone. Expect France to bitch loudly tomorrow. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Decade-Long European Recession Coming Up; Reflections on the Un-Level Playing Field Posted: 05 Dec 2011 12:43 PM PST If French president Nicolas Sarkozy gets his wish to "Level the Playing Field" on sovereign bonds, a decade-long European recession is on its way. French President Nicolas Sarkozy made it clear in a speech in Toulon last week that he wanted the private sector to be given a more-level playing field when it came to the threat of having to bear losses on their investments. He said Greece, where there have been drawn-out negotiations between the government and the private sector over how much of a hit banks and insurance companies should take under a debt restructuring, should be a unique case. "It must be clear that what has been done for Greece, in a very particular context, will not happen again, that no other state in the euro zone will be put into default," he said. "It must be absolutely clear that in future no saver will lose a cent on the reimbursement of a loan to a euro zone country." Reflections on the Un-Level Playing Field What could possibly be more un-level than guaranteeing banks and bondholders will never take losses? When there are more losses, and there will be, the only way to guarantee banks do not take them, is to have someone else take them, namely taxpayers. While pondering that, take look at the action in Portuguese bonds. Portugal 10-Year Government Bonds Portugal 2-Year Government Bonds Do either of those charts suggest there will be no more losses? If there are, who will pay them? If Sarkozy gets his wish, taxpayers, not bondholders will pay the price.The same holds true for Ireland, Spain, Belgium, and Italy. The only true way to level the playing field is to make banks and bondholders who take foolish risks to pay the price for their foolish actions. Monti's "Save Italy" Package Sure to Cause "Super Recession" Yesterday I wrote Monti's "Save Italy" Package Sure to Cause "Super Recession" Super Mario has a five-point plan to "Save Italy". Raise more than 10 billion euros from a new property tax Impose a new tax on luxury items like yachts Raise value added tax Crack down on tax evasion Increase the pension age The above package was dubbed the "Save Italy" package by Prime Minister Mario Monti. Supposedly it will boost growth. While I agree pension reform is much needed, there is not a single thing in the package to boost growth. Italy is in recession. Raising taxes in a recession is the last thing you want to do, yet four of Monti's five ideas raise taxes. This proposal may temporarily placate the bond market, but Italy is headed for one "super recession" if Mario's mix of idiotic tax hikes passes. Instead, Italy needs to cut wasteful government spending and lower taxes. For there to be no more losses, we will need still more austerity measures in France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Germany. Spanish unemployment is 22.6%, a 15-year high. Greek unemployment is a record 18.4%. What will more austerity measures do and what will cramming losses on taxpayers do to those rates? The EU needs to reflect on the consequences of Sarkozy's ludicrous proposal to "un-level" the risks on piss poor lending decisions. Two Consequences In Order Europe will slide into a multi-year recession Voters in Greece, Spain, Portugal (likely all) will have had enough Then .... Eventually, Will Come a Time When .... Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Daily Show on "Free Money" Posted: 05 Dec 2011 10:31 AM PST Jon Stewart on the Daily Show went after the Bernanke Fed last week following the disclosure by Bloomberg of $7.7 trillion lent to US banks on which they made billions of dollars in profit, at no risk. Link is video does not play: Secret TARP program explained For more facts on which banks were involved and to what extent, please see Banks Make $13 Billion on $7.7 Trillion in Secret Fed Loans; SEC Stands by Does Nothing. The most puzzling aspect about the Bloomberg revelation is why there is not more public ire against Congress, the Fed, and banks over this. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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