Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Dutch Government Calls Timeout on Euro Bailout Deal
LPS Mortgage Monitor: Over 4 Million Loans 90+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure, 72% in Foreclosure Not Made Payment for at Least 1 Year
Greece Replaces Top Brass in Army, Navy, Air Force in Surprise Move; Is Papandreou Preparing for a Military Coup or Afraid of One?
Greek Referendum Off or On? Who is in Control? Anyone?
EU Deal Unravels from Many Sides; Italy, France Bond Spreads Hit Record High vs. Germany; Bund Yield Drops Most on Record; All Out Bond Crisis
Greek 1-Year Bond Yield Hits 205%
GM Sales Barely Rise, Chrysler's Up 27%; What Does It Mean?
Regulators Investigate MF Global for Missing Customer Money; MF Global Goes Bankrupt Before Making 1st Interest Payment; Corzine's Achievement Sheet

Dutch Government Calls Timeout on Euro Bailout Deal

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 11:04 PM PDT

Although there is no formal requirement for the Dutch parliament to approve the EFSF bailout deal, members of the prime minister's coalition are having second thoughts about the deal following the Greek referendum proposal.

Amusingly, members of the opposition are pleased with the referendum stating a preference for tossing "the whole rescue package into the trash bin".

Please consider Dutch govt wins time on euro bailout deal

The Dutch government won time on Tuesday to get parliament's backing for last week's euro zone rescue plan, promising details on the package and facing demands to have a strong budget commissioner and more IMF involvement in the debt crisis.

Despite anger among coalition and opposition parties about Greece's plan for a referendum on the rescue plan, the Dutch parliament agreed to wait for details how the euro zone rescue fund EFSF would work and what powers the commission will get to enforce budget rules before reaching a view.

The package negotiated last week does not need the formal approval of euro zone national parliaments.

But with the cabinet's main ally outside the ruling coalition, Geert Wilders' anti-immigration Freedom Party, strongly opposed to such bailouts, Prime Minister Mark Rutte relies on help from the opposition.

The opposition party Labour, whose support is crucial for securing majority support for the minority government, called Greece's referendum plan a "deal breaker" and "spontaneous self-incineration".

"The package is not strong enough, and it is effectively wiped off the table now that Greece has placed a bomb under it," Labour MP Ronald Plasterk said in parliament.

Plasterk called for strong budget supervision to prevent Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi from "throwing a party on the costs of the EFSF fund".

Wilders, who dislikes last week's deal and wants Greece to leave the euro zone, told reporters he was pleased about the referendum because it would mean "the whole rescue package can go into the trash bin".

Right now this delay appears to be a mere formality. However, politics can take a U-turn at any time as we have seen.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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LPS Mortgage Monitor: Over 4 Million Loans 90+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure, 72% in Foreclosure Not Made Payment for at Least 1 Year

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 09:00 PM PDT

Inquiring minds are reading the latest LPS Mortgage Monitor, released today.

Foreclosure timelines continue to increase across the board - almost 40 percent of loans in foreclosure have not made a payment in two years, and 72 percent have not made a payment in a year or more. New problem loan rates increased sharply over the last two months, with 1.6 percent of loans that were current six months ago now 60 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure.

Here are a few charts from LPS.
Click on any chart for a sharper image.

Over 4 Million Loans 90+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure

Delinquencies and Foreclosures

39% of Loans in Foreclosure Not Made Payment in 2 Years, 72% for 1 Year

Take a good look at that chart. There has not been a decrease in the no payment for over 2 years category ever. At the beginning of 2011 it was 28%. It is now 39%. At the beginning of 2010 it was 12%.

Foreclosure Starts Outnumber Sales by Factor Over 3:1

If things are improving, it's not by much.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Greece Replaces Top Brass in Army, Navy, Air Force in Surprise Move; Is Papandreou Preparing for a Military Coup or Afraid of One?

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 05:05 PM PDT

Greek prime minister George Papandreou pulled a second major surprise move in two days. Yesterday he rattled the markets with a bombshell voter referendum proposal on the EU bailout (see EU Deal Unravels from Many Sides; Italy, France Bond Spreads Hit Record High vs. Germany; Bund Yield Drops Most on Record; All Out Bond Crisis).

Greece Replaces Top Brass in Army, Navy, Air Force in Surprise Move

Today in another surprise move, Greece Replaces Top Brass in Army, Navy, Air Force

In a surprise move, on Tuesday evening the defence minister replaced the country's top brass.

An extraordinary meeting of the Government Council of Foreign Affairs and Defence (Kysea), which comprises the prime minister and other key cabinet members, accepted Defence Minister Panos Beglitis' proposal that the following changes be made to army, navy and air force and the general staff:

General Ioannis Giagkos, chief of the Greek National Defence General Staff, to be replaced by Lieutenant General Michalis Kostarakos
Lieutenant General Fragkos Fragkoulis, chief of the Greek Army General Staff, to be replaced by lieutenant general Konstantinos Zazias
Lieutenant General Vasilios Klokozas, chief of the Greek Air Force, to be replaced by air marshal Antonis Tsantirakis
Vice-Admiral Dimitrios Elefsiniotis, chief of the Greek Navy General Staff, to be replaced by Rear-Admiral Kosmas Christidis

It is understood that the personnel changes took many members of the government and of the armed forces by surprise.

Is Papandreou Preparing for a Military Coup or Afraid of One?

I can only think of two reasons for this latest surprise announcement.

Papandreou or the Defense Minister is Preparing for a Military Coup (to stay in power if he does not survive the vote of confidence)
Papandreou or the Defense Minister is Afraid of a Military Coup

Take your pick. It's one or the other but it could be both.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Greek Referendum Off or On? Who is in Control? Anyone?

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 01:45 PM PDT

The stock market rallied in a spurt around 12:30 Central when a Dow Jones Newswires reported that a Greek Socialist Party official said the plan to have voters approve the rescue is "basically dead."

Then, about an hour before the close came news from a Greek government spokesman that the referendum was back on and the S&P slid back towards the lows of the day.

Finally, in a bit late buying the S&P surged 12 points to close down about 35 points, roughly 2.8%.

S&P 500 Futures, 3-Minute Chart

The question is: Who is an control? Better yet, is anyone in control?

One thing we know is Papandreou's call for a vote of confidence is on. We also know his fragile coalition holds an extremely slim 3 margin majority in Parliament.

I believe on these announcements, he will lose that vote of confidence. If so, we do not know who will replace him. If the call for voter referendum is not binding, then it is likely the next Greek parliament or prime minister will cancel it.

There are a lot of open questions here in regards to both the vote of confidence and the voter referendum, yet I see them posed nowhere else. Is there a Greek constitutional expert around?

Meanwhile Merkel and Sarkozy will meet in Cannes November 3 to discuss the Greek crisis in yet another EU 20-member summit.

If the referendum is on, the EU is no longer in control of a Greek default. More specifically, the EU was never in control, it only appeared that way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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EU Deal Unravels from Many Sides; Italy, France Bond Spreads Hit Record High vs. Germany; Bund Yield Drops Most on Record; All Out Bond Crisis

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 10:35 AM PDT

In the wake of Papandreou's Call for Voter Referendum on EU Debt Deal sovereign debt yields plunged in Germany and surged higher in most other European countries, but most notably Italy and France.

Bloomberg reports Italian Bonds Slide, Premium to Bunds Reaches Record, Amid Greece Concern

Italian bonds led declines among the securities issued by Europe's most indebted nations after a Greek plan to hold a referendum on its international bailout added to concern the region's financial turmoil will deepen.

Italy and France's 10-year borrowing costs climbed the highest levels relative to benchmark German debt since before the creation of the euro in 1999. Bund yields fell the most on record, with the securities outperforming all their euro-area peers, as investors sought the safest assets.

"The run-up will put the European Central Bank, European Union and International Monetary Fund in a tough position regarding disbursements to Greece," El-Erian wrote. The EU deal "appears to be unraveling from many sides."

The ECB was said by three people to have bought Italian debt today as it tries to stem financial-market contagion to the euro area's biggest bond market. Two-year note yields still rose 75 basis points to 5.75 percent, the highest since 1997. The five-year rate rose to more than 6 percent, a premium of more than 5 percentage points compared with similar-maturity German debt.

European Sovereign Debt Spread Table 10-Year Bonds

Country	10-Yr Yield	Spread vs. Germany
Germany	1.77	0.00
France	2.96	1.19
Belgium	4.40	2.63
Spain	5.52	3.75
Italy	6.19	4.42
Ireland	8.21	6.44
Portugal	11.80	10.03
Greece	24.65	22.88

European Sovereign Debt Spread Table 2-Year Bonds

Country	2-Yr Yield	Spread vs. Germany
Germany	0.41	0.00
France	1.09	0.68
Belgium	2.77	2.36
Spain	4.02	3.61
Italy	5.28	4.87
Ireland	9.27	8.86
Portugal	20.30	19.89
Greece	87.28	86.87

Italy yields are well off the highs of the day after the ECB stepped up Italy bond purchases.

Italy 10-Year Government Bonds

Italy 2-Year Government Bonds

For some reason Bloomberg charts do not match intra-day figures but the summary section on the left is accurate. Note the explosion in Italy's 2-year bond yield, at one point up .76.

Meanwhile, the German 10-year yield fell 26 basis points and the 2-Year yield fell 13 basis points.

Thus at one point today the German 2-year spread vs. Germany widened by a massive 89 basis points.

The deal is certainly "unraveling from many sides" with force, so much so that Europe is in the midst of an "all out sovereign bond crisis".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Greek 1-Year Bond Yield Hits 205%

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 09:24 AM PDT

I have been wondering when Greek bond yields would top 200%.
Today is the day.

Greece 1-Year Government Bond Yield

Congratulations to anyone selecting this target date.

However, predictions made yesterday in the wake of Papandreou's Call for Voter Referendum on EU Debt Deal do not count.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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GM Sales Barely Rise, Chrysler's Up 27%; What Does It Mean?

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 09:06 AM PDT

Nearly lost in the European carnage this morning, GM Sales Barely Rise, Chrysler's Up 27%.

Chrysler Group LLC's October U.S. auto sales rose 27% while General Motors Co. climbed just 1.7% amid a mixed picture for the largest U.S. auto makers.

GM suffered declines in all its brands except Chevrolet, the Detroit auto maker said on Tuesday. Its dealer inventory was up 15% from a year ago and up 6.1% from September.

The auto maker reported total sales for the month of 186,895 vehicles. Its Chevrolet sales rose 6% while Cadillac sales fell 11.9%, Buick declined 7% and GMC sales dropped 4.6%. Overall, GM's retail sales were up 2.6% ...

Sales down and dealer inventory up 15% at GM.

The key takeaway from last months "good" GM sales report is it was largely based on channel stuffing. "Sales" get reported when cars are shipped to the dealer and cars are stacking up at GM dealers.

This does not bode well for jobs, production, or GDP looking ahead, unless consumers put on their shopping hats. I do not believe they will.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Regulators Investigate MF Global for Missing Customer Money; MF Global Goes Bankrupt Before Making 1st Interest Payment; Corzine's Achievement Sheet

Posted: 01 Nov 2011 12:31 AM PDT

Today I Congratulate Jon Corzine, CEO of MF Global, for an unheard of combination of rare "achievements".

Corzine's Achievement Sheet

After being forced out as CEO of Goldman Sachs, Corzine spent a record $62 million of his own money on a US Senate campaign and won. The prior record was $28 million.
During the senate campaign, Corzine refused to release his income tax return records citing a confidentiality agreement with Goldman Sachs.
In 2000, Corzine denied having paid off African-American ministers, when in fact the foundation controlled by him and his wife had paid one influential black church $25,000.
While Senator, Corzine decided he would rather be governor of New Jersey and spent $38 million buying the governorship.
As governor, Corzine spent some $200,000 of his own money on advertisements to promote a referendum on the 2007 New Jersey ballot to borrow $450 million to fund stem cell research. The referendum was rejected although $270 million had previously been approved to build stem cell research centers.
Corzine, in attempting to pass the 2007 fiscal year budget, said that he would not accept a budget that did not include a hike in the sales tax from 6% to 7%.
After the legislature failed to pass Corzine's budget by the deadline of July 1, 2006, he signed an executive order that immediately closed down all non-essential state government services.
Corzine lost his reelection bid to Republican Chris Christie. It takes rare talent for Democrats to lose in New Jersey.
In 2010 Corzine was named CEO of MF Global and used 40-1 leverage on foolish bets on European bonds driving the company into bankruptcy.
MF Global is the first company to go bankrupt in three years while still rated investment grade by rating agency S&P. The previous company was Washington Mutual.
MF Global is one of very few companies ever to go bankrupt before making its first bond payment.

Corzine in Bed with Union Leaders, Literally

Many of the above facts were from Wikipedia. Here is a lengthy snip on influence peddling.

In the spring of 1999, when Jon Corzine was running for the United State Senate, he met Carla Katz, the then president of Local 1034 of the Communications Workers Corzine and Katz were soon dating, and they began appearing in public as a couple in early 2002, shortly after Corzine's separation from his wife Joanne. The Corzines divorced the following year. For more than two years Corzine was romantically involved with Katz. She lived with him at his apartment in Hoboken from April 2002 until August 2004.

After Corzine's breakup with Katz, their lawyers negotiated a financial payout in November 2004. According to press accounts, the settlement for Katz exceeded $6 million, including cash (in part used to buy her $1.1 million condominium in Hoboken), a college trust fund to educate her children, a 2005 Volvo sport utility vehicle, and Corzine forgave a $470,000 loan that he had made to Katz in 2002 so that she could buy out her ex-husband's share of their home in Alexandria Township.

Corzine later admitted that he had also given $15,000 to Carla Katz's brother-in-law, Rocco Riccio, a former state employee who had resigned, after being accused of examining income tax returns for political purposes. At the time, Katz was president of the Communications Workers of America Local 1034, which bargains on behalf of many state employees.

In the fall of 2006, during an impasse in contract negotiations between the Corzine administration and the state's seven major state employee unions (including the CWA), Katz contacted the governor by phone and e-mail to lobby for a renewal of the negotiations. Their relationship and the financial settlement Katz received after their breakup led to criticism of potential conflicts of interest in labor negotiations while Corzine was governor.

A state ethics panel, acting on a complaint from Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan, ruled in May 2007 that Katz's contact with Corzine during negotiations did not violate the governor's code of conduct.

Separately, New Jersey Republican State Committee Chairman Tom Wilson filed a lawsuit to release all e-mail correspondence between Corzine and Katz during the contract negotiations. On May 30, 2008, New Jersey Superior Court Judge Paul Innes ruled that at least 745 pages of e-mail records should be made public, but Corzine's lawyers immediately appealed the decision.

Corzine won his case on appeal, and on March 18, 2009, the New Jersey Supreme Court ruled that it would not hear arguments in the case, effectively ending the legal battle to make his e-mails with Katz public. Corzine spent approximately $127,000 of taxpayer funds to keep the e-mails secret. Despite these efforts, on August 1, 2010, The Star-Ledger published 123 of the Corzine-Katz e-mails, revealing the extent of their personal contact during negotiations over a new state workers contract in early 2007.

Corzine Perfect Fit for MF Global

In spite of that background, (or do I mean because of it), MF Global thought Corzine was a perfect fit.

Indeed, those looking for reckless behavior, massive risk taking, and willingness to bet the farm on marriage, in politics, and in life, Corzine represented rare "impossible to pass up" talent.

MF Global Bonds Fail to Make First Payment

In a rarely achieved feat, MF's Corzine Key Man Bonds Fail to Make First Payments

Bond investors lent MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) $650 million three months ago in a bet Jon Corzine would succeed in turning the futures broker into a mini-version of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The firm filed for bankruptcy before making its first interest payment on the debt.

The former New Jersey governor and Goldman Sachs co-head was deemed so key to the broker's success that bondholders demanded an extra percentage point of interest if he left for a post in the Obama administration.

On Oct. 24, Moody's lowered the firm's credit ratings in part on concern that the company wasn't sufficiently managing risk. A day later, the broker reported its largest-ever quarterly loss and disclosed how much its exposure to bonds sold by Italy, Spain, Belgium, Portugal and Ireland had grown.

Assurances that all the European debt MF Global had invested in would mature by December 2012 and that the company had financed the transactions through the life of the bonds didn't stop its shares from falling 66 percent in four days to $1.20 a share. The broker tapped almost all of a $1.2 billion credit line.

Bondholders are now in line with creditors owed $39.7 billion, according to Chapter 11 papers filed yesterday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan.

Corzine's Fault

"The fact that Jon Corzine, the ex-head of Goldman Sachs, was at the helm for MF Global gave the company a lot more ability to extend their reach than they ordinarily would," Sean Egan, president of Egan-Jones Ratings Co., said yesterday on Bloomberg Television's InBusiness with Margaret Brennan.

The balance sheet reached 40 times the firm's equity, Egan said.

"They should have been levered in the area of maybe about six-to-one," he said. "Having only 2.5 percent equity to assets is ridiculous. That means if you have a 2.5 percent downdraft in the balance sheet, which is very likely, then they're bankrupt."

MF Global Bankruptcy: The Biggest Losers

The Wall Street Journal reports on MF Global Bankruptcy: The Biggest Losers

1) Fidelity funds, 13.9 million shares or 8.44% of common stock

2) Guardian Life Insurance Co., 12.9 million common shares, or 7.8%

3) Fine Capital Partners, 21.5 million shares, 7.37% *(In a recent SEC filing, Fine Capital reporting owning 12.16 million shares, for a 7.4% stake in MF Global.)

4) Cadian Capital Management, 10.2 million shares, 6.17%

5) TIAA-CREF, 9.5 million shares, 5.77%

Corzine swept in last year to lead MF Global, and he had ambitions to remake the company in the image of his former company, Goldman Sachs. Instead, Corzine's optimism about investing MF Global's money in European sovereign debt — over the objections of others, according to today's Wall Street Journal story — helped imperil the firm.

Over the summer, bond investors apparently thought highly enough of Corzine that they demanded a richer payout from MF Global if Corzine left the firm for a high-ranking government job. Today, such a "key man" clause seems like an antique.

Apart from a dent to his reputation, Corzine also stands to lose financially from the MF Global bankruptcy filing. Corzine's compensation last year was $14.2 million, including stock options MF Global valued at $11.1 million. Those options pay off at a share price of $9.25, which means they are very likely to be worthless now.

Volcker's Campaign Against Proprietary Trading

Bloomberg reports MF Exposes Risk Volcker Wants to Curb

Jon Corzine's risk appetite helped destroy his firm. It also provided an object lesson for Paul Volcker's campaign against proprietary trading on Wall Street.

Nineteen months after former New Jersey Governor Corzine became chairman and chief executive officer, MF Global Holdings Ltd. (MF) yesterday filed for bankruptcy. Corzine's decision to boost risk-taking, including a $6.3 billion wager with the firm's own money on European government debt, triggered the collapse.

"In the wake of 2008, when we all should have learned a lesson, Jon Corzine told me himself that it was a relatively staid, not risk-oriented firm and he needed to ratchet up the risk," William Cohan, author of "Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World," said on Bloomberg Television. "Well, he does that and it blows up in his face and for the first time he can't unwind the trade. Honestly I'm still shocked and it should not have happened."

Corzine, 64, learned the strategy of making big trading bets during his 24 years at New York-based Goldman Sachs, which he ran from 1994 to 1999 before being forced out.

While Corzine sought to recreate the Goldman Sachs that he remembered, the firm's current management was reducing risk- taking -- in part in response to the Volcker rule. It closed Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies, a prop-trading team that bet primarily on equities, and the Global Macro Proprietary Trading desk, which wagered on bonds, currencies and commodities.

The Volcker rule also will require Goldman Sachs to reduce investments in private equity and hedge funds to no more than 3 percent of each of the funds -- or 3 percent of Goldman Sachs's Tier 1 capital. In the latest quarter, such investments were responsible for the firm reporting its second quarterly loss since going public in 1999.

The Volcker rule, as written in the Dodd Frank Act, had "so many different exemptions and exceptions and loopholes that it almost became nearly impossible for the regulators to fashion a rule that can live up to its original intent," said Barofsky, a Bloomberg Television contributing editor.

Regulators Investigate Missing Money

The New York Times DealBook reports Regulators Investigating MF Global for Missing Money

Federal regulators have discovered that hundreds of millions of dollars in customer money has gone missing from MF Global in recent days, prompting an investigation into the brokerage firm, which is run by Jon S. Corzine, the former New Jersey governor, several people briefed on the matter said on Monday.

The recognition that money was missing scuttled at the 11th hour an agreement to sell a major part of MF Global to a rival brokerage firm. MF Global had staked its survival on completing the deal. Instead, the New York-based firm filed for bankruptcy on Monday.

Regulators are examining whether MF Global diverted some customer funds to support its own trades as the firm teetered on the brink of collapse.

The discovery that money could not be located might simply reflect sloppy internal controls at MF Global. It is still unclear where the money went. At first, as much as $950 million was believed to be missing, but as the firm sorted through its bankruptcy, that figure fell to less than $700 million by late Monday, the people briefed on the matter said. Additional funds are expected to trickle in over the coming days.

In any case, what led to the unaccounted-for cash could violate a tenet of Wall Street regulation: Customers' funds must be kept separate from company money. One of the basic duties of any brokerage firm is to keep track of customer accounts on a daily basis.

Neither MF Global nor Mr. Corzine has been accused of any wrongdoing. Lawyers for MF Global did not respond to requests for comment.

DealBook stated "the inquiry threatens to tarnish further the reputation of Mr. Corzine".

Short of uncovering fraud, is that possible?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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