Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

EU Diplomatic Source Says Worst Case Scenario Would Consume Entire EFSF, Haircut of "At Least 50%" Coming or IMF will Not Proceed
Late Payments in Spain Soar to 7.14%, Highest Since 1994; Portugal Economy Expected to Contract More than Forecast in 2012
Magic Turns 340 Billion Euros Into 940 Billion Euros; Six-Day Marathon of Lies, Deceit Underway

EU Diplomatic Source Says Worst Case Scenario Would Consume Entire EFSF, Haircut of "At Least 50%" Coming or IMF will Not Proceed

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 09:42 PM PDT

The latest rumor is the EU and IMF are demanding 50% haircuts or they will not proceed. Bear in mind, they released the latest tranche of aid to Greece today even though Greece missed all required targets.

Instead of talking about a Greek recovery in 2012-1013 the timeline is now stretched out to 2020.

The Vancouver Sun reports Banks must take 'at least 50-pct' loss for Greek rescue

Europe and the IMF will only proceed with their planned second Greek bailout if banks accept a "haircut" of "at least 50 percent," diplomatic sources said Friday.

Banks would need to take a 60-percent "haircut" on Greek debt to keep "official funding" at the level presently planned, the report seen by AFP concludes, with the "worst-case" scenario outlined by auditors envisaging 440 billion euros in future bailout funds.

An EU diplomatic source told AFP after their discussions broke up overnight that the conclusions drawn from the talks were that "a minimum of 50 percent Private-Sector Involvement is needed" to go ahead.

The source said that approval by the International Monetary Fund, and therefore EU, on plans aimed at containing contagion threatening the rest of the eurozone, and keeping Greece in the currency area long-term, "is only possible if there is clarity on the second programme," — that it crosses that 50-percent threshhold.

Another diplomatic source conceded that getting the second bailout back on track would now require movement both from eurozone partners and the banks.

Bailout partners, who gave their green light earlier on Friday to the release of 8 billion euros in blocked loans from the May 2010 first bailout for Greece worth 110 billion euros, pending agreement from the IMF, could still be required to offer "more concessional official sector financing terms," the conclusions said.

Working on the worst-case assumptions, "the time required to get back to market could be significant, generating a potential need for additional official financing ranging up to 440 billion euros."

Worst Case Scenario

Note that the worst case scenario, and we are talking just about Greece (not Italy, not Spain, Portugal), would consume the entire 440 billion euro EFSF.

Have no fear because Magic Turns 340 Billion Euros Into 940 Billion Euros; Six-Day Marathon of Lies, Deceit Underway

I am tired of rumors, lies, manipulations, and magic. However, rumors, lies, manipulations, and magic are all that's driving the markets.

Whatever haircut is agreed upon (and 90% is what is needed but that will not happen), note that EU is shooting for a mere 50% agreement from the bondholders. Rest assured the EU will label the actions "voluntary".

Regardless what the EU says, there is a very good chance the rating agencies will correctly label the action involuntary, thus triggering CDS payouts.

There should be a 100% chance the rating agencies will label the haircuts involuntary, but don't count on it.

Indeed, the only thing one can count on are more rumors, lies, manipulations, and magic proposals. Eventually the market will spit in the face of such proposals but unfortunately I cannot tell you when, nor can anyone else.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Late Payments in Spain Soar to 7.14%, Highest Since 1994; Portugal Economy Expected to Contract More than Forecast in 2012

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 01:11 PM PDT

Courtesy of Google translate, please consider Late payment of the financial system up to 7.14% in August, highest since 1994

Defaults on loans granted by banks, savings banks, cooperatives and credit institutions (EFC) to individuals and companies in August stood at 7.14%. This is the highest level since November 1994, according to the Bank of Spain.

According to the provisions of Bulletin Gesif Axesor tracking delinquencies and entrepreneurship, the default rate of banks in Spain will end the year 2011 about 8% as it will keep the upward trend in the last months of the year.

With the default rate on the rise and persistence of the difficulties of access to credit would not be surprising that the ratio of non-compliance continued growth path of 9%, predicts the newsletter.

Portugal forecasts economy to contract 2.8% in 2012

Yahoo!News reports Portugal forecasts economy to contract 2.8% in 2012

Portugal's economy is next year expected to shrink further than was previously forecast, the government said Monday as it submitted its tough 2012 budget, while unions responded with a strike call.

Finance Minister Vitor Gaspar told a press conference that Portugal was "at the heart of the crisis" affecting the eurozone and that the floundering world economy "will lead to a contraction of gross domestic product of 2.8 percent, following 1.9 percent this year," in Portugal.

The government had previously envisaged the economy would shrink by 2.3 percent in 2012 and 1.8 percent this year. The Bank of Portugal had put the estimates at 2.2 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively.

Portugal 10-Year Bond Yields

Spain 10-Year Bond Yields

Even though the ECB, EU, and IMF cannot figure out what to do about Greece, Spain is simmering and the lid has blown off Portugal.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Magic Turns 340 Billion Euros Into 940 Billion Euros; Six-Day Marathon of Lies, Deceit Underway

Posted: 21 Oct 2011 09:37 AM PDT

In 2013 a 500 billion Euro "permanent" bailout fund (ESM) was slated to replace the 440 billion "Temporary" European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) fund.

Via magic, the latest proposal that has the stock markets excited is to merge the two funds double counting the money (and then some).

Bloomberg reports EU Said to Weigh Combined $1.3 Trillion Fund

European governments may unleash as much as 940 billion euros ($1.3 trillion) to fight the debt crisis by combining the temporary and planned permanent rescue funds, two people familiar with the discussions said.

Negotiations over pairing the two funds as of mid-2012 accelerated this week after efforts to leverage the temporary fund ran into European Central Bank opposition and provoked a clash between Germany and France, said the people, who declined to be identified because a decision rests with political leaders.

Disclosure of the dual-use option helped reverse declines in U.S. stocks and the euro on speculation it could help break the deadlock among European leaders. Their wrangling led to the scheduling of a summit three days after an Oct. 23 gathering.

The 440 billion-euro European Financial Stability Facility has already spent or committed about 160 billion euros, including loans to Greece that will run for up to 30 years. It is slated to be replaced by the European Stability Mechanism, which will hold 500 billion euros, in mid-2013.

A consensus is emerging to start the permanent fund in mid-2012, the people said. During the transition between the two funds, euro-area governments originally agreed to cap overall lending at 500 billion euros, a figure deemed sufficient when Greece, Ireland and Portugal were the primary victims of the debt crisis.

Simple Math

The total overall cap is 500 billion Euros
160 billion Euros has been spent
340 billion Euros remains
340 billion Euros + zero Euros = 940 billion Euros

Bear in mind this raises the permanent fund above the agreed upon amount. The German Supreme court has stated this cannot be done without a voter referendum.

Please see Germany's Top Judge Throws Major Monkey Wrench Into Leveraged EFSF Machinery, Demands New Constitution and Popular Referendum for Further Powers for details.

There is no way voters will approve this.

Also bear in mind the German Supreme court has ruled there should not be a permanent bailout fund at all. I am unclear if the ruling meant beyond the ESM or at all all. Either way, there should be a popular referendum on the matter, with an emphasis on "should be".

Six-Day Marathon of Lies, Deceit

To ram this mathematically insane proposal through the Bundestag now requires a Six-Day Marathon on Greece, Banks

European leaders braced for a six- day battle over how to save Greece from default, shield banks from the fallout, and build more powerful defenses against the debt crisis rocking the 17-nation euro economy.

A falling-out between Germany and France has snagged the crisis management. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is pushing for the use of a European Central Bank role in boosting the firepower of the 440 billion-euro rescue fund, a measure opposed by Germany.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble denied a Berlin- Paris rift, saying Germany called for the second summit to give the government time to consult lawmakers.

"France and Germany are not at all stuck in their positions," Schaeuble said.

Seven options are on the table for leveraging the fund, known as the European Financial Stability Facility. Germany and the ECB have ruled out granting it a banking license, the most potent option.

"New ones are coming into the process because smart people are looking for creative options," Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter said in an interview. "None of the models are amazingly better than the others."

ESM Term Sheet Details

Peter Tchir at TF Market Advisors sent a reference to the ESM Term Sheet from March 21, 2011.

As originally foreseen, the EFSF will remain in place after June 2013 so as to administer the outstanding bonds. It will remain operational until it has received full payment of the financing granted to the Member States and has repaid its liabilities under the financial instruments issued and any obligations to reimburse guarantors. Undisbursed and unfunded portions of existing loan facilities should be transferred to the ESM (e.g. payment and financing of instalments that would become due only after the entry into force of ESM). The consolidated EFSF and ESM lending shall not exceed € 500 bn.

Lies and Deceit Easy to Find

Lies and deceit are easy to find. The math alone proves as much. So does the attempt to skirt German constitutional law. Finally please consider the lie by Schaeuble "France and Germany are not at all stuck in their positions".

Hopefully the German Supreme Court nixes this mathematical stupidity before it gets approved. If not, there will be a challenge.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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Friday, October 21, 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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