Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

---

• Sheer Panic; EU Revives Default, Buyback Ideas; New Strategy Coming "Shortly", No Timeline Set; Here's a clue: They are Clueless
• Recall Madness in Wisconsin: Republicans Run as Democrats; Permanent Election Season Through 2012
• European Government Bond Spreads at Record Highs vs. Germany; 2-Year Spreads: Greece 30.09, Portugal 17.11, Ireland 16.58
• Bond Vigilantes Strike; Crisis in Italy Escalates; Portugal 2-Year Debt Hits 18.36%, Greece 31.34%, Ireland 17.83%; New Record High Spreads
• Invisible Elephant Now Visible; EU Ready to Tell Trichet to "Stuff It"; Help for Italy?

Sheer Panic; EU Revives Default, Buyback Ideas; New Strategy Coming "Shortly", No Timeline Set; Here's a clue: They are Clueless Posted: 11 Jul 2011 08:03 PM PDT Once again the best comedy show anywhere comes from the offices of the ECB and EU. Please consider EU Revives Buyback Idea as Crisis Hits Italy As exploding bond yields in Italy and Spain brought the crisis closer to the heart of the euro area, Europe's search for answers took it back to proposals that were scuttled by Germany earlier this year. After a nine-hour meeting, the 17 euro ministers issued a six-paragraph statement pledging to flesh out details of a new strategy to end the 21-month-old crisis "shortly," without setting a timeline. The decision to have another look at reinforcing the European Financial Stability Facility, the 440 billion-euro ($618 billion) bailout fund that was beefed up only last month, came after talks with bondholders over a "voluntary" rollover of Greek debt ran into a threat by credit-rating companies to put Greece in default. Finance ministers offered varying interpretations of the commitment to explore a wider range of options. For Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager, who insists on getting bondholders to roll over Greek debt, the pledge includes the possibility of the "selective default" opposed by the ECB. Europe's lunge back to basics came after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou complained that a "cacophony" had sowed "panic" that overwhelmed the budget cuts that he pushed through his parliament amid street riots last month. The uphill struggle for solvency in Athens was dramatized by data yesterday showing the central government's deficit widened 28 percent in the first half of 2011, with spending surpassing targets and revenue falling short. Rejected by Germany earlier this year, the buybacks would pare Greece's debt burden of 142.8 percent of gross domestic product by enabling it to retire bonds at a discount. In discussions that wrapped up last month, Germany blocked proposals to add buybacks to the bailout fund's toolkit, opposing the use of taxpayer money to help countries like Greece wriggle out of their debt. Finance ministers also signed a treaty to establish the European Stability Mechanism, which will replace the temporary fund in mid-2013 and include provisions for a private-sector role. Euro-area governments will put 700 billion euros of cash and callable capital into the ESM, giving it the capacity to lend 500 billion euros. It requires unanimous government ratification to go into operation. If that collection of inactivity, unbelievable promises, conflicting strategies, and blame placing does not show panic, what does? Please note the buyback proposal involves German taxpayers. Think that will fly? In a state of panic, who knows what the ECB and EU might consider. However, they sure could not agree to anything in a nine hour meeting other than to agree to announce a plan "shortly". Here's a clue: They are clueless. For additional commentary on Monday's events, please consider Bond Vigilantes Strike; Crisis in Italy Escalates; Portugal 2-Year Debt Hits 18.36%, Greece 31.34%, Ireland 17.83%; New Record High Spreads European Government Bond Spreads at Record Highs vs. Germany; 2-Year Spreads: Greece 30.09, Portugal 17.11, Ireland 16.58 Invisible Elephant Now Visible; EU Ready to Tell Trichet to "Stuff It"; Help for Italy? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Recall Madness in Wisconsin: Republicans Run as Democrats; Permanent Election Season Through 2012 Posted: 11 Jul 2011 01:21 PM PDT Wisconsin Democrats, upset by fiscal sanity and common sense legislation that will benefit all Wisconsin have launched a recall campaign against six Republican legislators who sided with Governor Scott Walker on much needed collective bargaining legislation. In response, some Republicans are hoping to win the primary by running as Democrats. The recall Republicans effort is this week. Moreover, Republicans are hoping to recall two Democrat legislators. The Republican primary is July 19. Please consider 'Madness Abounds' as Fake Candidates Confuse Wisconsin Recalls Wisconsin voters will choose among real and fake Democrats this week to challenge six Republican senators in recall elections that may derail the agenda of Governor Scott Walker. The primaries are the opening skirmish in a state at political war. The six districts in tomorrow's races have Republicans running as Democrats, hoping to win the nomination and effectively render the Aug. 9 recall votes meaningless. On July 19, there will be two primaries and a full-fledged recall aimed at Democratic senators who fled the state in February in hopes of blocking the measure, which touched off weeks of protests across the nation. State election law allows open primaries, which means that voters can participate regardless of partisan affiliation. It also allows members of one party to enter another's primary. The state's nine legislative recall elections compare with a total of 20 across the nation since 1913, according to Joshua Spivak, a senior fellow at the Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform at Wagner College in New York. If any recalls succeed, that will encourage more, McCabe [Mike McCabe, executive director of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, a nonprofit that advocates openness in government] predicted, including one that has been started against Walker, who cannot be ousted until he has been in office a year. "We could more or less have a permanent election season continuing through 2012," McCabe said. "It almost becomes a foregone conclusion about recalling the governor." Union-Busting is a "Godsend" I comment Governor Walker and everyone who voted for his common-sense proposal. The results are in: Union-Busting is a "Godsend"; Elimination of Collective Bargaining is the Single Best Thing one Can do for School Kids Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

European Government Bond Spreads at Record Highs vs. Germany; 2-Year Spreads: Greece 30.09, Portugal 17.11, Ireland 16.58 Posted: 11 Jul 2011 10:00 AM PDT 10-Year Government Bond Yields and Spreads vs. Germany Country Yield Change Yield High Spread Spread High Germany 2.67 -0.16 0 Portugal 13.31 +0.39 Y 10.64 Y Ireland 13.34 +0.43 Y 10.67 Y Greece 17.02 +0.16 14.35 Spain 5.96 +0.28 Y 3.29 Y Italy 5.61 +0.34 Y 2.94 Y 2-Year Government Bond Yields and Spreads vs. Germany Country Yield Change Yield High Spread Spread High Germany 1.25 -0.20 0 Portugal 18.36 +0.87 Y 17.11 Y Ireland 17.83 +1.40 Y 16.58 Y Greece 31.34 +0.96 Y 30.09 Y Spain 4.18 +0.41 Y 2.93 Y Italy 4.11 +0.60 Y 2.86 Y Notice those incredible spreads on 2-year yields. Greece 30.09, Portugal 17.11, Ireland 16.58 ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet can scream "no defaults" all he wants but the bond market simply will not go along. For the charts that made up this post, and for additional commentary, please see ... Bond Vigilantes Strike; Crisis in Italy Escalates; Portugal 2-Year Debt Hits 18.36%, Greece 31.34%, Ireland 17.83%; New Record High Spreads Invisible Elephant Now Visible; EU Ready to Tell Trichet to "Stuff It"; Help for Italy? These numbers likely have Trichet and EU officials ***ting bricks. What are they going to do, up the size of the bailout fund to infinity? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Bond Vigilantes Strike; Crisis in Italy Escalates; Portugal 2-Year Debt Hits 18.36%, Greece 31.34%, Ireland 17.83%; New Record High Spreads Posted: 11 Jul 2011 08:34 AM PDT In response to EU Calls Emergency Meeting on Italy; Don't Worry "It's a Coordination, Not a Crisis"; Short Sellers Blamed; Junckeritis Spreads I received an interesting comment from "fedwatcher" The "Bond Vigilantes" are out in force in the European Sovereign Debt markets. What is at risk here is not Italy, rather it is the Euro itself. The Euro-zone suffers from an incomplete financial system. The collection of sovereign states that adopted the Euro have toothless central banks that in turn depend on a toothless ECB. The ECB is not a central bank equivalent to the U.S. Federal Reserve or the Bank of England as there is no European Treasury and no central taxing authority. Rather the Euro-zone states depend on the support of individual banks and those banks are all over levered with too much sovereign debt. The assumption was that these banks did not have to have reserves against sovereign debt as there was no default risk. As the real problem of default was recognized, these banks bought Credit Default Swap insurance but the "insurers" cannot pay off. The PIIGS have the power to bring the Euro down. That is their hole card. The German public has the power to bring the Euro down. That is Berlin's hole card. The French have no hole card and across the border in Belgium you have a sovereign state largely dependent on its hosting of many EU bureaucrats. Many European banks are on life-support from the U.S. Federal Reserve since the EU is toothless. Thus, the U.S. is a hidden party to these negotiations. So in the Euro-zone we have insolvent banks, insolvent governments, and a currency union that lacks the full set of tools to survive. No wonder the Bond Vigilantes are out in full force. Portugal 2-Year Government Debt Yield Portugal 10-Year Government Debt Yield Italy 2-Year Government Debt Yield Italy 10-Year Government Debt Yield Spain 2-Year Government Debt Yield Spain 10-Year Government Debt Yield Ireland 2-Year Government Debt Yield Ireland 10-Year Government Debt Yield Greece 2-Year Government Debt Yield Greece 10-Year Government Debt Yield Germany 2-Year Government Debt Yield Germany 10-Year Government Debt Yield For further analysis, please see Invisible Elephant Now Visible; EU Ready to Tell Trichet to "Stuff It"; Help for Italy? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Invisible Elephant Now Visible; EU Ready to Tell Trichet to "Stuff It"; Help for Italy? Posted: 10 Jul 2011 11:39 PM PDT ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet has been battling Germany, the bond markets, and EU officials over his "No Greek default, not even a soft one" stance. That battle is about ready to come to an inglorious end for Trichet. The Financial Times reports EU stance shifts on Greece default European leaders are for the first time prepared to accept that Athens should default on some of its bonds as part of a new bail-out plan for Greece that would put the country's overall debt levels on a sustainable footing. The new strategy, to be discussed at a Brussels meeting of eurozone finance ministers on Monday, could also include new concessions by Greece's European lenders to reduce Athens' debt, such as further lowering interest rates on bail-out loans and a broad-based bond buyback programme. It also marks the possible abandonment of a French-backed plan for banks to roll-over their Greek debt. "The basic goal is to reduce the debt burden of Greece both through actions of the private sector and the public sector," said one senior European official involved in negotiations. Officials cautioned the new tack was still in the early stages, and final details were not expected until late summer. But if the strategy were agreed, it would mark a significant shift in the 18-month struggle to contain the eurozone debt crisis. Until now, European leaders have been reluctant to back any plan categorised as a default for fear it could lead to a flight by investors from all bonds issued by peripheral eurozone countries – including Italy and Spain, the eurozone's third and fourth largest economies. A German-led group of creditor countries has for weeks been attempting to get "voluntary" help from private bondholders to delay repayment of Greek bonds, a move they hoped would lower Greece's overall debt while avoiding a default. But in recent days, debt rating agencies warned any attempt to get bondholders to participate would represent a selective default. Rather than abandon bondholder buy-ins, however, several European leaders have decided to return to a German-backed plan to push current Greek debt holders to swap their holdings for new, longer-maturing bonds. The move essentially scraps a French proposal unveiled last month, which many analysts believed would only add to Greek debt levels by offering expensive incentives for banks that hold Greek debt to roll over their maturing bonds. Officials said the Institute of International Finance, the group representing large banks holding Greek debt, has gradually moved away from the French plan and begun to embrace elements of the German plan. At long last Trichet is about to find out he is not bigger than the bond market. Help for Italy? Bloomberg reports Euro Falls to Two-Week Low as Leaders to Meet Amid Contagion Concerns The euro dropped against most major peers after Die Welt reported that the European Central Bank is seeking to expand a fund to include help for Italy, following a coordinated rescue for Greece by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. "Italy is a very large economy, and if indeed we do see contagion spread toward Italy, then the ECB, EU and IMF will need to come up with a totally different plan to deal with it," said Khoon Goh, head of market economics and strategy at ANZ National Bank Ltd. in Wellington. "Ongoing sovereign concerns are proving to be a real drag on the euro." The yield on Italy's 10-year bond rose to a nine-year high of 5.27 percent on July 8, driving the premium over German bunds to a euro-era record of 244 basis points. The bailout fund may have to be doubled to 1.5 trillion euros ($2.13 trillion) to cover a crisis in Italy, the ECB said, according to the German newspaper Die Welt. The Financial Times cited unidentified senior officials as saying European leaders are prepared to accept that Greece should default on some of its bonds. Invisible Elephant Now Visible On January 7 I posted Italy The Invisible Elephant. Six months later, mainstream media is discovering that fact. I had to laugh when three days ago Calculated Risk commented A top European analyst put out a research note last night calling Italy "the elephant in the room". Italy is now clearly visible, and mainstream media is 6 months late. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

You are subscribed to email updates from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610