Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 11 Oct 2010 10:24 PM PDT As predicted on numerous occasions, Paul Krugman is once again pleading for still more Keynesian stimulus. Please consider Hey, Small Spender Here's the narrative you hear everywhere: President Obama has presided over a huge expansion of government, but unemployment has remained high. And this proves that government spending can't create jobs.Never Enough No matter how much money Government spends it will never be enough because government cannot create lasting jobs. As soon as the stimulus spending stops so do the jobs. No matter how many times Austrians insist Krugman look down the road to what happens to his Fantasyland model when the stimulus stops he refuses to discuss this simple point. It is impossible to debate Keynesian clowns because no matter how much money they blow building bridges to nowhere like Japan did, the answer will always be "It wasn't enough". I Told You So The easiest prediction in the world to make was that Krugan would whine "I Told You So". I discussed the prediction in Are we "Trending Towards Deflation" or in It? Actually, we have seen a never ending parade of "I Told You So's" from Krugman but this one tops them all. Indeed, he has taken his whining to a new level by claiming "If job-creating government spending has failed to bring down unemployment in the Obama era, it's not because it doesn't work; it's because it wasn't tried." No Paul, it's because it doesn't work, no matter how hard you try. Cheering the Loss of Government Jobs Krugman whines about the loss of government jobs. "Consider, in particular, one fact that might surprise you: The total number of government workers in America has been falling, not rising, under Mr. Obama. A small increase in federal employment was swamped by sharp declines at the state and local level — most notably, by layoffs of schoolteachers. Total government payrolls have fallen by more than 350,000 since January 2009. " I openly cheer the loss of government jobs, and did so recently in Economic Nonsense from Ezra Klein at the Washington Post The only genuinely good news in Friday's jobs report was the much needed shedding of 159,000 government workers of which only 77,000 were temporary census workers.Seen and Unseen The problem with Keynesian clowns is they simply cannot look at the seen and the unseen consequences of their economic models. To be sure, government can create jobs by paying everyone to spit at the moon. But the spending comes at a cost. That cost is a cheaper dollar, and rising interest on the national debt that at some point will consume all federal revenues. What then? Well Keynesian clowns never discuss "what then?" because in their fairy tale world everyone lives happily ever after if only government spends enough money. Frankly, 7th graders can see the asininity of such free lunch proposals, even if Nobel Prize winning economists cannot. Firing Public Union Workers Creates Jobs This might sound strange until you think it through, but Firing Public Union Workers Creates Jobs. Public unions in New Haven, Connecticut have not yet gotten the message that business-as-usual no longer flies. I am quite happy with that because the city responded by dumping public workers and privatizing services, and that is exactly what needs to happen.Getting Rid of Government Workers is a Winning Proposal Getting work done for lower prices puts more money in the pockets of taxpayers who will make far better use of it than politicians who use taxpayer money to buy union votes. It also makes projects more affordable so more of them can be done for the same amount of money. If pay scales are cut to match the private sector, the jobs can actually stay (or be privatized), AND taxes lowered at the same time. Thus getting rid of government jobs is a win-win for everyone but the overpaid, ungrateful public union workers who always want tax increases to support their undeserved pay and benefit scales. Who's Responsible for the Loss of Government Jobs? The ultimate irony in Paul Krugman's and Erza Klein's posts is that public unions are responsible for all the government job losses they are whining about. In every state worker cutback instance that I have read about (dozens if not hundreds), public unions have resisted modest cuts in pay and benefits and instead have voted to cut jobs. Thus, public unions themselves are responsible for that modest loss in jobs. Policies That Support Growth The correct way to spur growth is by fostering an economy that supports economic growth. For details, please see Bleak Outlook for Small Businesses and Job Creation; Where Obama Went Wrong, and What to do About It. Correct Solution Takes Time Will there be pain to make the necessary adjustments? Of course there will. Look at Greece and Spain. But the longer we delay tackling the structural problem of too much government spending, the greater the overall pain. Keynesian clowns pretend there is some sort of free lunch, that we can spend our way to prosperity. Well it cannot be done. Numerous countries have tried and all have failed. Final End of Bretton Woods 2? Tim Duy is discussing the Final End of Bretton Woods 2? In essence, a nasty surprise awaited US policymakers - after two years of scrambling to find the right mix of policies, including an all out effort to prevent a devastating collapse of financial markets and a what Administration officials believed to be a substantial fiscal stimulus, the US economy remains mired at a suboptimal level as stimulus flows out beyond US borders. The opportunity for a smooth transition out of Bretton Woods 2 was lost.Dual Mandate Idiocy Consider the idiocy of a dual mandate. Monetary policies cannot create jobs. The reason should be easy to spot. The Fed can create liquidity, but it cannot determine where it goes, or indeed if it goes anywhere at all. Fed Has Two Options 1: The Fed can defend an interest rate target but will then have no control over money supply 2: The Fed can defend a money supply target but it will then have no control over interest rates Notice that nowhere in the picture is there an option for the Fed to create jobs. It cannot be done. Tim Duy: Bad things happen when you fight the Fed. You find yourself on the wrong side of a whole bunch of trades. In this case, I suspect it means that Bretton Woods 2 finally collapses in a disorderly mess. There may really be no other way for it to end, because its end yields clear winners and losers. And the losers, in this case largely emerging markets, [are] not prepared to accept their fate.Arrogant Claptrap The "Bad things happen when you fight the Fed" comment from Duy is quite arrogant. After all, the Fed's policies under Greenspan and Bernanke fueled the biggest housing and credit bubbles the world has ever seen. Bernanke, failed to see the recession coming, failed to see the housing bubble, failed to see the unemployment rate rising above 8.5%, and just plain failed at damn near everything. For Christ's sake we would not be in this big of a mess were it not for the Fed and its idiotic manipulation of interest rates, trying to meet some asinine (as well as physically impossible) dual mandate. No Tim! Bad things happen when the Fed does not know what is doing, which by the way is always. Indeed that is corollary number 1 of 4 of the Fed Uncertainty Principle. Fed Uncertainty Principle: The fed, by its very existence, has completely distorted the market via self reinforcing observer/participant feedback loops. Thus, it is fatally flawed logic to suggest the Fed is simply following the market, therefore the market is to blame for the Fed's actions. There would not be a Fed in a free market, and by implication there would not be observer/participant feedback loops either. Corollary Number One: The Fed has no idea where interest rates should be. Only a free market does. The Fed will be disingenuous about what it knows (nothing of use) and doesn't know (much more than it wants to admit), particularly in times of economic stress. Tim Duy: Well, thank the Heavens above, the IMF stands ready to produce a report. Now I can sleep easy.On that score I happen to agree with Duy's sarcasm and said so in PBoC Researcher says China Should "Set Red Line for Yuan Appreciation at 3%"; IMF Participants Pledge to "Create Reports" Tim Duy: Bottom Line: The time may finally be at hand when the imbalances created by Bretton Woods 2 now tear the system asunder. The collapse is coming via an unexpected channel; rather than originating from abroad, the shock that sets it in motion comes from the inside, a blast of stimulus from the US Federal Reserve. And at the moment, the collapse looks likely to turn disorderly quickly. If the Federal Reserve is committed to quantitative easing, there is no way for the rest of the world to stop to flow of dollars that is already emanating from the US. Yet much of the world does not want to accept the inevitable, and there appears to be no agreement on what comes next. Call me pessimistic, but right now I don't see how this situation gets anything but more ugly.Monetarist Nonsense Here are a few stats from my friend "BC" Since Q1 '07:
Will QE II, III, etc., work any better? Bernanke Incapable of Learning Anything Bernanke is completely inept, failing to learn anything from history. Yet, Ironically he is given great acclaim as being a student of the Great Depression. Here are a few snips from Lessons Not Learned - No Failure Too Great to Admit It No Failure Too Great to Admit ItSharing the Blame When this mess collapses, the monetarist clowns at the Fed and the Keynesian clowns in Congress will share the blame. In a final twist of fate, the Keynesian clowns will blame the Monetarist Clowns and vice versa. I discussed this likelihood in Bernanke says Lawmakers Should Consider Rules on Fiscal Limits; Expect Hissy Fit from Krugman; Bernanke Pisses in the Wind Proving that he far more of a Monetarist clown than a Keynesian clown, Bernanke Calls on Lawmakers to Consider Rules on Fiscal LimitsBernanke Poised to Blame Keynesians So there you have it. Bernanke is all poised to blame the Keynesians. Meanwhile the Keynesians are already pointing the finger at the monetarists and everyone else who does not want more government spending. The real threat is not of deflation, but of absurd Keynesian and Monetarist attempts to prevent it. The Greenspan-Bernanke housing bubble (and subsequent crash), and decades of futility in Japan should be proof enough. Tim Duy worries that "Bretton Woods 2 will finally collapse in a disorderly mess." Compared to the Keynesian and Monetarist alternatives, and because at this point a currency crisis is inevitable, I suggest the sooner the better. Indeed a strong case can be made that the worry ought to be that we don't quickly collapse in a disorderly mess. We really do need to start over. Bretton Woods 2 has had it. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Unclear Titles Will Sideline Buyers of Foreclosed Properties for Many Months Posted: 11 Oct 2010 09:58 AM PDT Would you buy a foreclosed home now, knowing full well the title may be clouded by mortgage fraud? I wouldn't. Anyone who would without title insurance is asking for a huge legal mess. Moreover, because of fraudulent procedures, bank of America and other companies have halted all foreclosures. See 40 State Attorneys General to Investigate Mortgage Fraud; Bank of America Halts Evictions Nationwide; Senator Reid Calls for More Suspensions, A nationwide halt in foreclosures for details. Halting of foreclosures cut home sales of distressed as well as add to already enormous shadow inventory of homes. In an ironic twist, median home prices may temporarily rise because of decreased sales of distressed properties. Potential Distressed Sale Buyers Will Stay On Sidelines Bloomberg reports Foreclosure Freeze May Sideline U.S. Homebuyers on Legal Concern Revelations of mistakes in foreclosure proceedings are causing buyers to have misgivings about property titles, the right of home possession, said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at Woodley Park Research in Washington. Confidence in the legality of repossessions will cut foreclosure sales more than a reduction of available properties because the market already is flooded with repossessed homes, he said.Delays Will Be Delays, and That's It? In one sense, delays will just be delays. As I said in a previous post: "It is very important to remember that except in extremely rare and highly publicized cases, there is essentially no dispute that who were foreclosed on have not been paying their mortgages and are in default. In other words, in nearly every case, these people are going to lose their homes and indeed should lose their homes. The question is not whether these people should or will lose their homes, but rather who has the legal right to foreclose." At What Cost? However, that only looks at one side of the equation. The other side of the equation can be summed up with the question "At What Cost?" Clearly these delays will be very expensive to correct, assuming they can be corrected at all. Except for a line at the end of her post blaming "free market ideology on steroids" Yves Smith has an excellent writeup covering many issues in 4ClosureFraud Posts Lender Processing Services Mortgage Document Fabrication Price Sheet Failure of Regulation Bear in mind, that none of this foreclosure mess or for that matter the housing mess in general has anything remotely to do with the Free Market. Yves continually and erroneously blames the Free Market when the cause for this mess is a Failure of Regulation rather than a failure to Regulate. However, that one line comment should not distract you from reading an otherwise excellent post. Would You Buy a Foreclosed Home? If reading Yves post did not deter you from buying a foreclosed home, perhaps a read of the Ellen Brown's post FORECLOSUREGATE AND OBAMA'S 'POCKET VETO' will help. If that does not deter you, perhaps a read of A Different Direction for the Foreclosure Mess? by Bruce Krasting will. Repeating my opening question: Would you buy a foreclosed home now, knowing full well the title may be clouded by mortgage fraud? Many will not be willing at all. Others may be willing if and only if they can get title insurance. Can You Get Title Insurance? Earlier this month a couple of title insurers stopped issuing title insurance for homes foreclosed on by J.P. Morgan Chase and Ally Financial's GMAC Mortgage. Please consider the USA Today report Old Republic to stop writing policies for some foreclosures Old Republic National Title Insurance, among the nation's largest title insurance companies, will no longer write new policies for homes foreclosed upon by J.P. Morgan Chase and Ally Financial's GMAC Mortgage unit –– a sign that concerns about faulty foreclosure paperwork could now endanger new sales of foreclosed homes.Much More Than Delays All things considered, Lawler's comments "Most of the delays will just be delays. All this is doing is creating severe uncertainty for people who were thinking of buying a distressed property." while accurate on the surface, are enormously understated the deeper you dig. However, this is what happens in two sentence soundbites. Lawler is aware of many other issues, including the very important question Who Will, and Who Should "Pay"? Free Market Failure? Hardly! But Who Will Pay? I discussed the question about who will pay for this mess as well a discussion of free market principles in SEC Failure to Regulate MBS Resulted in "Interconnected Ponzi Scheme with Various Types of Concurrent Fraud" More Likely Than Not, Taxpayers Will PayAlong with taxpayers, we certainly need to add title insurers to the list to the list of those likely to suffer, not only for reduced income from all these delays, but also from the aspect they are very vulnerable for title policies they insured, whose titles are now very clouded, and may be clouded for months or even years. Finally, anyone with a clouded title (a buyer of a previously foreclosed home), cannot sell. What a mess. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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