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Sunday, September 5, 2010

Mortgage and Loans - Mortgage Refinance, Home Loans

What is the best health insurance and cheapest that covers medical, dental and vision in Miami, FL?
Don’t Refinance Your Mortgage Loan
Mortgage trade alterations in Canada.
Hidden Answer To Saving Time On Finding Cheap Term Life Insurance Revealed

What is the best health insurance and cheapest that covers medical, dental and vision in Miami, FL?

Posted: 05 Sep 2010 02:41 AM PDT

I am searching to find the best possible health insurance that offers the lowest rates/charges, since I am fed up with my previous one that was too expensive and did not cover may of my visits. I need the insurance that covers medical, dental and vision and that it is for Miami-Dade county, Florida. Does anyone know? Thank you very much!

Don’t Refinance Your Mortgage Loan

Posted: 05 Sep 2010 02:22 AM PDT

Unless you wish to save money. Visit best-refinance-home-mortgage-loan-rates.com If you wish to refinance your mortgage, and are not sure if it is the right solution that will save you money.. This video and website link is for people who think refinancing their home loan. You can get some…

Mortgage trade alterations in Canada.

Posted: 04 Sep 2010 09:52 PM PDT

When looking at the alterations that have taken place in the Canadian mortgage market, we need to firstly look at the property market changes. The business was affected by many things including the economy, monetary policies and the property market. When you take into account the affordability of payments in comparison to an individual’s earnings you can see why there was such a big change in the housing business over the last year. Comparing property prices, rent prices and the price-to-income charts we have noticed very similar outcomes. When they are all lumped together they show a dwindling trend in house prices in late 2008 and beginning of 2009 and lately have been showing signs of recovery. Sparse supply of properties on the market coupled with sales recovery have seen prices for homes increase dramatically. We have produced an article called Canada and International Housing Markets, for you go through, if you would like more information on the changes within the real estate prices around the world.

The mortgage business and it’s changes

So how did the Canadian mortgage business change? Most countries decided to make little change to the mortgage market, this was not the position in Canada. Early 2006 the federal government made mortgage insurance more reasonable and thats when the developments occurred in the mortgage market. For the innovations to take place the market needed a strong and pro-active banking system with bank capitalization amongst other things. We can already observe the mortgage business changing even if the banking alterations were a natural progression. Long term there is still the risk of defaulting on a mortgage, but short term it is making real estate more affordable to many people. Although there was no way to halt the real estate market slowdown last year, these innovations meant that the slowdown was delayed.

Mortgage instalment periods

Up to three years ago the only mortgage amortization terms you could acquire was for 25 years. Extensions to mortgage terms to 30, 35 and 40 year mortgages happened subsequent to the alterations in 2006. According to the specialists from Scotiabank group, after just three years, 18% of outstandings are over 25 years and 10% and lower are 35-40 years. As a result of this alteration, in the past year, 47% of new mortgages had amortizations greater than than 25 years and 60% of these percentages were in the 35 and 40 year mortgages. Forty year mortgages unhappily have no way of being insured, as this opportunity was removed from the insurance market. In July 2008, AIG united with CMHC and Genworth in advertising the end of insured 40 year amortizations and 100% financing. Mortgages over 40 years are still available within the mortgage market, but people must be appraised of the fact that these are uninsured mortgages. For the remainder of the report entitled Mortgage Market in Canada go to our website.

Hidden Answer To Saving Time On Finding Cheap Term Life Insurance Revealed

Posted: 04 Sep 2010 08:32 AM PDT

The best thing about finding cheap term life insurance is that it is readily available and a lot easier to find than you may think. The Internet is the main tool that has made this possible as it is now very easy to go online and look for a quote from different life insurance companies whose websites will help you get your quote instantaneously and very conveniently as well. Now, there is no longer any need to spend hours on end waiting for an insurance agent to visit your home just to give you a quote.

Term life insurance policies are those that are a kind of security for a set period of time such as five, ten or even fifteen and twenty years. When the policy expires after running the entire duration of its time period you will not be paid any cash or gets any benefits. It is only in case the policyholder dies during the lifetime of the insurance policy that the benefactors will get the death benefits.

The reason why insurance companies are able to provide cheap term life insurance and affordable health insurance is because of specialization. There are in fact many life insurance companies that deal only with customers that are in the twilight years of their lives; other companies deal only with smokers and also those that suffer from heart ailments. All this helps the life insurance company in being able to offer specialized life insurance plans and this is how you too can also avail of cheap term life insurance by dealing with such companies.

It is a good idea to start with a term life insurance policy or home owners insurance that has small premiums but which will increase as you grow older and it is in fact, this feature of a term life insurance policy that helps to make this kind of life insurance plan the cheapest, (at least when you are young) and also when the term is of a slightly longer duration.

In order to find the best term life insurance policy you will need to first of all decide whether you wish for cash-value policy in the long term and if so then you can be sure that this is the right life insurance plan for you. With term life insurance you also don’t need to worry on account of having to dispute claims like is the case with other forms of life insurance because such an eventuality will not occur.

The Internet is the best place to look for a term life insurance plan as you can go online and research various options and also do comparison shopping. You need to also take your time in arriving at an informed decision and here again the Internet ensures that you are able to search hundreds of options in a short time which means being in a much stronger position to find the right deal for you.

Saturday, September 4, 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

New Job Opportunity - Spitting at the Moon

Posted: 04 Sep 2010 11:30 AM PDT

In multiple posts Paul Krugman is saying "I told you so". For example, please consider Nobody Could Have Predicted

Pictures support the view that stimulus worked as long as it lasted, boosting the economy — which is the same conclusion Adam Posen drew from Japan's experience in the 1990s: Fiscal policy works when it is tried.

But the stimulus wasn't nearly big enough to restore full employment — as I warned from the beginning. And it was set up to fade out in the second half of 2010.

So what was supposed to happen? The invisible cavalry were supposed to ride to the rescue.

I never understood why the Obama administration thought this would happen so soon; history tells us that the effects of a financial crisis on private spending are normally protracted. And sure enough, the cavalry has not arrived.

Stimulus and Full Employment

The idea we can stimulate the economy to full employment is about as silly as silly gets. Krugman wanted double the stimulus we got. Well, we got zero benefit unemployment-wise from the stimulus and in my book infinity times zero is still zero.

Yes, unemployment fell from 10.1% to 9.5% but all of that decrease, if not more than all of that decrease, was a result of a falling participation rate. The bottom line is neither the Fed increasing its balance sheet by $trillions nor a $1.4 trillion deficit did a thing to lower unemployment.

Of course the Keynesian clowns will holler things would have been worse in the absence of stimulus. Really?! Would banks be lending more? Would small businesses be hiring?

Full Employment Made Easy

Krugman wants full employment. I suppose the government could easily employ everyone who does not have a job. Then again, didn't we effectively do just that?

Here is a snip from "Contained Depression" that suggests we did.

We are certainly in a depression. However, 40 million people on food stamps as of August 2010, masks that depression. The cost of the food stamp program is on schedule to exceed $60 billion in fiscal 2010. For comparison purposes, there was just over 11 million on food stamps in 2005.

Please note there are 14.6 million unemployed, but of them 4.5 million of them are receiving regular unemployment benefits and another 4.7 million are receiving extended benefits. Thus 63% of those unemployed are receiving benefits. Being paid while not working also masks the depression.

Spitting at the Moon

Suppose that instead of handing out free money to 9.2 million unemployed, we hire them at minimum wage to spit at the moon. GDP would rise because all government spending by definition adds to GDP, regardless of how unproductive the activity really is.

Such a move would allow Krugman the wonderful opportunity to crow about rising GDP.

Moreover, unemployment would crash to seven percent or so. That would really get Krugman crowing. Yet, would anything have changed about the true state of the economy? Clearly the answer is no.

Suppose government hired all 14.6 million unemployed to spit at the moon. Would that get the economy humming? For any longer than the jobs to spit at the moon lasted?

The above examples may sound absurd, but the the result is much the same whether we hire people to spit at the moon vs. paving roads that don't need to be paved. The main difference is money will run out faster hiring road workers because of the wasted material and equipment costs.

Practical Example

In actual practice, tax credits for housing was an abysmal failure. Would doubling that program have achieved different results? Would wasting the same out of money to repair schools or build new schools have done any better? Once again the answer is no. The only difference in any of these examples is the burn rate at which stimulus money is wasted.

Only Genuine Demand Will Fix Economy

What will get the economy humming is better tax policy, scrapping Davis-Bacon, dumping public union workers wherever possible, slashing defense spending, and letting home prices bottom.

Real demand for housing will step up as soon as there are bargains. Instead we have policies to prop up home prices.

Lesson of Japan

The lesson of Japan is the same as the lesson of home tax credits in the US - Stimulus programs do not work period, regardless of size. In Japan, every program failed. Japan is now in debt to the tune of 200% of GDP.

Some suggest Japan is no worse off for it. Nothing could be further from the truth. Japan squandered massive savings in the stupidest manner possible, building bridges to nowhere, and now its citizens are aging, in need of drawing down their savings.

Unfortunately those savings were squandered.

Japan is poised to blow up, however, the timing is uncertain. Sadly, the US is on the same path and Krugman is hellbent to get us there faster.

Consumer Credit Inflection Point

Let's review Are we "Trending Towards Deflation" or in It?

The key problem for Bernanke is we have reached the Consumption Inflection Point - No One Wants Credit; Consumer Spending Plans Plunge

Keynesian Policies Fail

Keynesian stimulus measures have failed and will continue to fail. Please see Three Mish Segments on Tech Ticker, on Stimulus, Retail Sales, the Markets, Alternatives for details and an online interview.

We have wasted $2 trillion fighting deflation. It has not produced any jobs.

The correct way to spur growth is by fostering an economy that supports economic growth. For details, please see Bleak Outlook for Small Businesses and Job Creation; Where Obama Went Wrong, and What to do About It.

Keynesian Cures Worse than the Disease

Krugman has the wrong definition and the wrong worry. However, he is correct in his call for deflation. Unfortunately, this will lead to a bunch of "I told you so" kinds of posts from Krugman, in spite of the fact his cures are worse than the disease.

Indeed, Keynesian "cures" are one of the reasons this economy is in the mess it is in.

The final analysis shows that the real threat is not of deflation, but of absurd Keynesian and Monetarist attempts to prevent it. The Greenspan-Bernanke housing bubble (and subsequent crash), and decades of futility in Japan should be proof enough.

Nobody

For another "I Told You So" Krugman post, please consider Nobody

The truth is that some of us were practically screaming back in January 2009 that the administration was proposing too small a program. Start with Stimulus arithmetic (wonkish but important) and work forward. And no, the point isn't that I'm so smart — it is that given the forecasts we had at the time, and given historical experience of recessions after financial crises, it wasn't at all hard to see that the plan was too small. Things have been worse than expected — but not that much worse.

And why does this matter? Because the best chance Obama et al have to change things now is to make the case that we need to do more, and that Republicans stand in the way. Yet here they are, apparently trying to run on the claim that they had it right all along, or something. Is this just boneheaded political strategy? Is it about the egos of the advisers who called it wrong?

I Told You So

The easiest predictions in the whole world were ....

1. Stimulus would fail no matter how big.
2. Krugman would brag "I Told You So".

Three things about Krugman that irk me to no end are ...

His failure to look at the seen and unseen consequences of his proposals
His failure to address the question as to what happens when stimulus ends
His failure to look at structural problems

Ability for government borrowing is not infinite (at least without major economic repercussions). One easy to see problem is interest on the national debt will consume all tax collections if we stay on this path. Moreover, expiration of housing tax credits provides a clear example as to what happens when stimulus ends.

The Invisible Cavlalry

My friend HB has written an excellent article on similar lines. It turns out prosperity is not around the corner after all. Please consider Paul Krugman and the Invisible Cavalry

Averting the Great Depression Again

Throwing money at problems cannot ever work, but that especially holds true when structural problems like union salaries and public pension promises are left intact.

Just because Krugman was correct that stimulus would fail does not make him correct about the reasons why, or what the correct policy actions should have been. The irony as my friend points out, is Krugman's 2009 proclamation "So it seems that we aren't going to have a second Great Depression after all. What saved us? The answer, basically, is Big Government".

Now we need big government to save us again. Spare me the sap. Big government is clearly the problem, not the solution.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Voters Strongly Favor Non-Incumbent GOP Newcomers in Midterm Elections

Posted: 04 Sep 2010 01:14 AM PDT

More than any other class, including Republicans in general, voters have a decided preference for non-incumbent GOP challengers. Moreover, three in four believe an influx of new members would improve Congress, says Gallup.

Please consider Americans Most Likely to Favor GOP Newcomers for Congress

Suppose you had a choice among each of the following four types of candidates for Congress. Which one would you be most likely to vote for?

Republican serving in Congress - 15%
Republican who has not served in Congress - 38%
Democrat who has not served in Congress - 16%
Democrat serving in Congress - 24%
Other - 3%
No Opinion - 4%

Overall, a majority of Americans prefer a Republican candidate (regardless of experience) to a Democrat, 53% to 40%. And a majority also prefer a non-incumbent (regardless of party affiliation) to an incumbent, 54% to 39%.

The fact that Americans who prefer a Republican candidate want one who is new to Congress suggests that these voters want both GOP control of Congress and the new perspectives that come from members with no prior Washington experience. Americans who favor Democratic candidates, on the other hand, apparently are more satisfied with the type of experienced representatives now in Congress.

One would naturally expect Democrats to prefer Democratic candidates, and Republicans to prefer Republican candidates, and that is the case when looking at the data by party. But partisans' preferences for incumbents versus challengers seem to be influenced by their knowledge that the Democrats currently have a majority in Congress, and thus, more Democrats will be defending House seats this fall. Democrats are more likely to prefer a Democrat who is in Congress to a Democrat who is not, and Republicans are more likely to prefer a Republican outside of Congress to one who is currently serving there. Independents also show a strong preference for Republican non-incumbents.

Strong Anti-Democratic Sentiment

Gallup reports Anti-Democratic Sentiment Aids GOP Lead in 2010 Vote

The Republicans' lead in the congressional generic ballot over the past month may be due as much to voters' rejecting the Democrats as embracing the Republicans. Among voters backing Republican candidates, 44% say their preference is "more a vote against the Democratic candidate," while 48% say it is "more a vote for the Republican candidate."

The 44% of Republican voters who say they are voting more against the Democratic candidate exceeds the level of negative voting against the incumbent party that Gallup measured in the 1994 and 2006 elections, when party control shifted (from the Democrats to the Republicans after the 1994 elections and from the Republicans to the Democrats after the 2006 elections).

GOP Holds Huge Edge In Turnout Related Question

In our third poll topic, Gallup shows Republicans Hold Wide Lead in Key Voter Turnout Measure

Two months before this year's midterm congressional elections, Gallup finds 54% of Republicans, compared with 30% of Democrats, already saying they have given "quite a lot of" or "some" thought to the contests.

Republicans' current level of thought about the elections, from Gallup Daily tracking conducted Aug. 23-29, matches or exceeds that found in October/November of the last three midterm years. By contrast, Democrats are giving far less thought to the elections today than they did in the final weeks before the prior four midterms. As a result, Democrats are on par with independents in current attention levels -- a sharp departure from recent years, when the Democrats exceeded independents on this measure.

The large party gap in "thought" suggests the typical Republican turnout advantage could be larger than usual this year if that gap persists until Election Day. Attention normally spikes as elections approach, and this is likely to occur among Democrats. However, it is unclear whether the Republicans have reached the limit for how much attention they will pay to a midterm election, or whether their attention will rise to perhaps a historic level by November. How this plays out will determine Democrats' ability to catch up to Republicans on this measure before Election Day, and will in turn determine the size of the Republican turnout advantage.

It's a virtual certainty that voters' attention to the election will increase in the coming months. If this increase is proportionate between Republicans and Democrats, then the Republicans will likely maintain a formidable turnout advantage. However, it's also possible that Republicans have merely tuned in early to the elections, leaving less room for their attention to expand -- and thus giving the Democrats an opportunity to narrow the gap by November.

Temper Tantrum?

In Our Quick-Fix Electorate on Real Clear Politics, Eugene Robinson proclaims

...This isn't an "electoral wave," it's a temper tantrum. In the punditry business, it's considered bad form to question the essential wisdom of the American people. But at this point, it's impossible to ignore the obvious: The American people are acting like a bunch of spoiled brats. ...there's no mistaking the public mood, and the truth is that it makes no sense.

On the contrary, this makes perfect sense. The public is fed up with how beholden Obama is to unions. They are fed up with sacrifices they have to make that government workers don't. They are fed up with how well the political class has fared in this election vs. how well they have fared in this election. They are fed up with never-ending wars.

It's not that people prefer Republicans by some huge margin. They don't. They specifically prefer non-incumbent Republicans hoping for a Change. Obama promised "Change you could believe in", but where is it? We are still bogged down in Afghanistan, Obama did not get us out of Guantanamo Bay as promised, but most importantly he did continue the same bailout strategies and surrounded himself with the same economic philosophy and same Wall Street advisors as Bush.

The public is fed up and rightfully so. The anti-union vote is going to be huge, and deservedly so.

I am increasingly confident that Republicans are going to take the House. So be prepared to Kiss Nancy Pelosi goodbye and be prepared to welcome John Boehner as the new House speaker. Perhaps we can get some real change. If not, gridlock is better than what we have seen under Obama.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mortgage and Loans - Mortgage Refinance, Home Loans

How should I choose an insurance company for my homeowners insurance?
How to get a Car Loan
Loans for Students Leads to Fullfilled Dreams
Loan Modification, Home Loan Modification, Mortgage Loan Modification, Mortgage Modification
Tips for getting emergency money

How should I choose an insurance company for my homeowners insurance?

Posted: 04 Sep 2010 02:38 AM PDT

What are some things I should look for within in? What are some important questions I should ask? I have checked with my auto insurance company, and they are a little high, so I am researching other companies, but want to know what I should look for.

How to get a Car Loan

Posted: 04 Sep 2010 12:02 AM PDT

askscott.ca — Many Albertans who have experienced credit problems are not always sure where to turn for advice. Edmonton Dodge dealer, Scott Held vlogs about some of the challenges you may encounter on the road to credit recovery. His candid advice may help you find the car loan you need, regardless of where you decide to buy.

Loans for Students Leads to Fullfilled Dreams

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 02:23 PM PDT

Since I was young, my parents emphasized to prioritize completing my education. As you can see, hoping to be the first person in our family who would graduate from college would definitely make them very proud. Government Student Loans

Having my education as my top priority, I graduated with honors and received a substantial scholarship. At the graduation ceremony, my parents were very proud and told our family friends on every possible opportunity that I would soon enter the large university, which was just a couple of hours away from our home.

Freshman year was fabulous! I loved living in the dorm, getting acquainted with my roommates though my courses were challenging. I had planned to return home for the summer, find a part-time job, reconnect with high school friends, and relax after a year of studying hard. However, my plans were quickly changed when I discovered that my dad had been ill for several weeks.

My parents had chosen not to tell me because they did not want me to worry. “You had final exams to think about, honey,” my mom explained, but it did not make the news any easier to accept. My dad was dying and there was nothing more his doctors could do.

In August, I returned to campus for my sophomore year. I did not want to leave my family, but both of my parents insisted. Then, I received a phone call two weeks later. My dad died.

The next two weeks were a blur of somehow making it home from college, sympathetic hugs from people I had not seen for years, and finding a few good shoulders to cry on. Although I had let my professors know what had happened, and they were willing to work with me so that I could catch up with what I missed while I went home to help my mom with arrangements, I just could not get my head back into the game when I returned to campus.

I was not getting much sleep because of frequent nightmares that kept on visiting me. When my alarm went off in the morning, telling me it was time to get to class, all I wanted to do was continue sleeping. So that’s what I did, most of the time. My grades significantly went down and I just felt that I do not have the energy or desire to do something about it.

Then something happened that I dreaded to happen. My scholarship was gone. Then I asked myself how can I finish my degree without the scholarship?

Just when my depression was hitting a new low, my roommate, Tiff, got a phone call from her parents. They asked to speak to me, and told me not to lose hope. It seemed that they were having financial difficulties and were worried about sending Tiff to college. They got familiar with OnlineStudentLoansGuide.com even before our freshman year began. They encouraged me to have my mom visit the web site immediately, which we did exactly.

Their advice saved me from dropping out of college for good. Mom and I studied the web site and learned about the different kinds of student loans I could be qualified. The site makes it easy to understand the differences between need-based student loans, government student loans, alternative student loans, subsidized and non-subsidized student loans.

Information about student loans for graduate school was also available, which I read just in case I would plan to take further degree of education. I think my dad would be proud. Find Student Loans

Loan Modification, Home Loan Modification, Mortgage Loan Modification, Mortgage Modification

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 11:58 AM PDT

realestatemarketingthisweek.com – Beware of phishing schemes and bank scams GMACs clients hit hard — Part 3 – As promised just before the break, I told you to, listen in if you know anyone who has a GMAC Mortgage, this is one of those too good to be true things. Heres the thing, I have no issues what-so-ever with GMAC, thats not what Im saying, what Im saying is there is a scam of sorts that is going around. A client of ours received a letter, we did a second mortgage for this person a few years ago, they received a letter from GMAC, it looked like GMAC, it sounded like GMAC, and it said that we are willing to forgive your second mortgage of 200 and some thousand dollars in lieu of a one time payment, payable within the next 30 days, of say 20 thousand dollars. I dont recall the exact amount or what it was. There is a phone number on there, it says loss mitigation department on it, a person assigned to this case. They called the phone number, they answered the phone as if you were calling into the loss mitigation department, and verified if you just send us this amount they will release the lien. Well it is completely false. It is absolutely not true. These people are not going to seek you out on their own, now whether it be GMAC, today we have actually seen that one, there may be other ones out there. Folks, if you are getting stuff like this you need to verify it and you need to verify it by sources other than the information on the letter that you have received. If …

Tips for getting emergency money

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 10:16 AM PDT

If you have a money emergency and need cash quick, there are not too many conventional places you can go to get the loan you need. You can head over to your local bank and apply for personal loans. In this recession, banks of very careful with their money and make it extremely tough for even good credit borrows to be approved. Also even if you’re approved for a loan, it might be weeks before you’re able to get the cashmoney.

Luckily, there are great alternatives to bank loans to get money very fast. Cash advance loans and payday loans are probably the fastest way to get emergency cash. You can apply for a loan online right from your laptop; however, many online lenders also have office locations across the United States to service the needs of borrowers. A lot of lenders do not demand a credit check. To qualify for a loan you must be 18 years or older, have a checking or savings account, and have a job. Due to the nature of the loan, it has to be be paid back fairly quickly; usually within 30 days or at your next pay period. As a result, interest in generally higher on cash loans. On the plus side, after you apply for a loan, you’re qualified in seconds and you can receive the funds in as fast as one business day. This is definitely the biggest draw for people considering a payday loan. With any loan, it is essential to borrow only the amount you need. Most loans are between $100 and $1500; however, your monthly income and state restriction will determine how much you can actually qualify for. From experience, it’s much easier to get a loan for $500 or less. Remember that cash advance loans are best for emergencies. They are created to be short term loans and have higher interest rates. If you’re currently looking for a lender, Fidelitycashadvance.com is a great place to go for a cash advance loan.

Friday, September 3, 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Understanding Reality - You Don't Know What You've Lost Till Its Gone
Reflections on the "Recovery"
Jobs Decrease by 54,000, Rise by 60,000 Excluding Census; Unemployment Rises Slightly to 9.6%; A Look Beneath the Surface

Understanding Reality - You Don't Know What You've Lost Till Its Gone

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 05:27 PM PDT

As everyone should know by now, my main concern with unions is specifically with public unions. While I do not care for unions at all, and never have, at least with private unions, someone other than corrupt politicians buying votes is bargaining at the other end of the table.

In the case of public unions, if politicians strike a bad deal, taxpayers foot the bill. In the case of private corporations, if management strikes a bad deal, the company goes bankrupt, shareholders take a hit, or the jobs move elsewhere, as soon as the contract is up.

Except in few cases every now and again, private unions just cannot seem to understand this simple economic fact.

Machinists Union Pickets Cessna Aircraft

The Kansas Wichita Eagle highlights the typical union response, public or private, in Cessna's initial offer to Machinists includes wage cut

Machinist union members at Cessna Aircraft picketed near the company's plant in southwest Wichita on Thursday to protest jobs being sent outside the city.

Members fought strong, gusty afternoon winds and carried signs that read "Keep it Made in Wichita," "Outsourcing is Treason" and "We built the Air Capital," as they picketed at K-42 and Hoover roads. Some carried American flags.

Cessna and the Machinists union are in the midst of contract negotiations. The current contract expires Sept. 19. About 2,300 hourly workers at Cessna are covered by the agreement. Hawker Beechcraft also has reopened negotiations with the union as it considers sending work to Louisiana, Mississippi and outside the country.

Cessna's initial proposal is for a 10-year agreement that cuts wages 4.2 percent, weakens job security, replaces the pension plan with a 401(k) plan and increases the share of the cost of health insurance paid by the workers to 30 percent, said union spokesman Bob Wood.

"There's no job security in the current proposal," Wood said.

"Wichita is based on aircraft," said Cynthia Hise. "If you don't get a good contract...." Darren Hise finished her sentence. "It's going to hurt the whole economy in Wichita."

Reflections on Job Security

Here's the deal. The Hise's and the union in general, appears ready willing and able to "hurt the whole Wichita economy" if they do not get what they want.

I have to ask "How stupid is that?"

The answer is "tremendously stupid".

It is far better to have a good paying job and no job security than no job at all and no prospects of a job. That's what it boils down to, and like it or not, that is the economic reality.

I do not know what salaries are, but a 10 year contract with only a 4.2% pay cut does not strike me as a bad deal. Those who think otherwise need to compare it to the alternative: seeing all the jobs go to Louisiana, Mississippi, or outside the country.

By the way, wouldn't residents of Louisiana and Mississippi be very grateful for those job, regardless of what the salary was? I think so. So the bottom line is this mess, is the unions would be to blame and only the unions to blame if Cessna moves elsewhere. The union will also be responsible for wrecking the entire local economy if it happens.

Take the contract and run! It's for 10 years! Because .... You Don't Know What You've Lost Till Its Gone, Then It's Too Late. In this case, it will be gone forever.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Reflections on the "Recovery"

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 12:43 PM PDT

One year ago the official unemployment rate was 9.7%. Today it is 9.6%.

One year ago U-6 unemployment was 16.8%. Today U-6 is 16.7%

click on chart for sharper image

For more details on the jobs report, please see Jobs Decrease by 54,000, Rise by 60,000 Excluding Census; Unemployment Rises Slightly to 9.6%; A Look Beneath the Surface

For all the trillions of dollars in stimulus and additional trillions of dollars in bank bailouts and trillions of dollars of expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, this is all we have to show for it.

Moreover, the economy is clearly slowing already by many economic reports including new home sales, existing home sales, the regional Fed manufacturing surveys, sentiment measures, and consumer spending trends. The only major discrepancy is ISM.

This week, none of that matters. However, I would like to point out that bear market rallies end, not on bad news, but on good news. It will be interesting to see how much more good news there is, and the market's reaction to it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Jobs Decrease by 54,000, Rise by 60,000 Excluding Census; Unemployment Rises Slightly to 9.6%; A Look Beneath the Surface

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 09:08 AM PDT

This morning the BLS reported a decrease of 64,000 jobs. However, that reflects a decrease of 114,000 temporary census workers.

Excluding the census effect, government lost 7,000 jobs. Were the trend to continue, this would be a good thing because Firing Public Union Workers Creates Real Jobs.

Unfortunately, politicians and Keynesian clown economists will not see it that way. Indeed there is a $26 billion bill giving money to the states to keep bureaucrats employed. This is unfortunate because we need to shed government jobs.

Birth-Death Model

Hidden beneath the surface the BLS Black Box - Birth Death Model added 115,000 jobs, a number likely to be revised lower in coming years. Please note you cannot directly subtract the number from the total because of the way the BLS computes its overall number.

Participation Rate Effects

The civilian labor force participation rate (64.7 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.5 percent) were essentially unchanged from last month's report. However, these measures have declined by 0.5 percentage points and 0.3 points, respectively, since April.

The drop in participation rate this year is the only reason the unemployment rate is not over 10%. The drop in participation rates is not that surprising because some of the long-term unemployed stopped looking jobs, or opted for retirement.

Nonetheless, I still do not think the top in the unemployment rate is in and expect it may rise substantially later this year as the recovery heads into a coma and states are forced to cut back workers unless Congress does substantially more to support states.

Employment and Recessions

Calculated Risk has a great chart showing the effects of census hiring as well as the extremely weak hiring in this recovery.

click on chart for sharper image

The dotted lines tell the real story about how pathetic a jobs recovery this has been. Bear in mind it has taken $trillions in stimulus to produce this.

June, July Revisions

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from -221,000 to -175,000, and the change for July was revised from -131,000 to -54,000.

Those revisions look good but it is important to note where the revisions comes from. The loss of government jobs in June was revised from -252,000 to -236,000 and July from -202 to -161,000.

Major Discrepancies

The BLS jobs report for August does not match ADP payroll estimates. Moreover, neither the BLS jobs report nor the ADP jobs report is consistent with the hot ISM number reported Wednesday. Both the BLS (details below) and ADP have a decline in manufacturing employment while ISM had a rise.

Please see Rosenberg says "ISM Flunks Sniff Test "; Cashin calls ISM "an Outlier"; ADP, Other Data Does Not Confirm for more details that suggest the ISM number is nonsense.

Part-Time Employment

The number of involuntary part-time workers increased by 331,000 over the month to 8.9 million. In January, the number of employees working "part-time for economic reasons" was 8.6 million.

Now for this month's report ....

July 2010 Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) July 2010 Employment Report.

Nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-54,000) in August, and the unemployment rate was about unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Government employment fell, as 114,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+67,000).

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Seasonally Adjusted

Since September 2009, temporary help services employment has risen by 362,000.

Establishment Data

click on chart for sharper image

Highlights

54,000 jobs were lost
19,000 construction jobs were added
27,000 manufacturing jobs were lost
38,000 service providing jobs were added
67,00 retail trade jobs were added
20,000 professional and business services jobs were added
45,000 education and health services jobs were added
13,000 leisure and hospitality jobs were added
121,000 government jobs were lost. Of them, 143,000 were temporary census workers

Note: some of the above categories overlap as shown in the preceding chart, so do not attempt to total them up.

Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours

Production and non-supervisory work hours rose .1 to 33.5 hours (from a revised lower hours total of 33.4 hours). Average hourly earnings rose $.03 at $19.08.

Birth Death Model Revisions 2009

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Birth Death Model Revisions 2010

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Birth/Death Model Revisions

The BLS Birth/Death Model methodology is so screwed up and there have been so many revisions and up it is pointless to further comment other than to repeat a few general statements.

Please note that one cannot subtract or add birth death revisions to the reported totals and get a meaningful answer. One set of numbers is seasonally adjusted the other is not. In the black box the BLS combines the two coming out with a total. The Birth Death numbers influence the overall totals but the math is not as simple as it appears and the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

BLS Black Box

For those unfamiliar with the birth/death model, monthly jobs adjustments are made by the BLS based on economic assumptions about the birth and death of businesses (not individuals).

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another.

Household Data

The number of unemployed persons (14.9 million) and the unemployment rate (9.6 percent) were little changed in August. From May through August, the jobless rate remained in the range of 9.5 to 9.7 percent.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) declined by 323,000 over the month to 6.2 million. In August, 42.0 percent of unemployed persons had been jobless for 27 weeks or more.

In August, the civilian labor force participation rate (64.7 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.5 percent) were essentially unchanged.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 331,000 over the month to 8.9 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a fulltime job.

[Mish Note: In January the number was 8.3 million]

Persons Not in the Labor Force

About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in August, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the
survey.

Table A-8 Part Time Status

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The key take-away is there are 8,860,00 workers whose hours may rise before those companies start hiring more workers.

Table A-15

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

click on chart for sharper image

Grim Statistics

The official unemployment rate is 9.6%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

It reflects how unemployment feels to the average Joe on the street. U-6 is 16.7%, up .2 from last month.

Looking ahead, there is no driver for jobs. Moreover, states are in forced cutback mode on account of shrinking revenues and unfunded pension obligations. Shrinking government jobs and benefits at the state and local level is a much needed adjustment. Those cutbacks will weigh on employment and consumer spending for quite some time.

Expect to see structurally high unemployment for years to come.

Keep in mind that huge cuts in public sector jobs and benefits at the city, county, and state level are on the way. These are badly needed adjustments. However, economists will not see it that way, nor will the politicians.

Recap

The private sector hiring increase of 67,000 is very weak for a recovery. That number is not enough to keep the unemployment rate steady. However, the unemployment rate comes from the Household Survey (a phone survey), not from actual payroll data.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mortgage and Loans - Mortgage Refinance, Home Loans

“Marry Me” – Touching Commercial (Thai Insurance)
How do you obtain health insurance, for someone who is already in the hospital?
Loan Modification, Home Loan Modification, Mortgage Loan Modification, Mortgage Modification
Keiser Report №63: Markets! Finance! Scandal!
Refinancing A Home Loan

“Marry Me” – Touching Commercial (Thai Insurance)

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 07:10 AM PDT

Just a reminder of how lucky some of us are.

How do you obtain health insurance, for someone who is already in the hospital?

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 05:04 AM PDT

Hello,

My friend is already in the hospital. He was in a car accident. He does not have insurance, but I am trying to provide some kind of coverage for him. Most health insurance companies will not cover someone who is already in the hospital. And he does not qualify for Medi-Cal. So are there any other options available out there, so that he can get the surgery he needs?

Loan Modification, Home Loan Modification, Mortgage Loan Modification, Mortgage Modification

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 02:23 AM PDT

realestatemarketingthisweek.com – Watch out for scams; huge fees for Loan Modifications — Part 7 – Important to point out folks that Velocity Financial is a full service mortgage broker, the majority of our business is writing and originating and underwriting mortgage loans for homeowners, people to buy real-estate, people to refinance their homes, people can still refinance out there, loan modifications are not for everybody, in fact they are for a small segment of the market. Im the founder of the Modification Hotline and we put that in place to help people right now, people dont need a salesman when it comes to these loan modifications, I heard a story today from a home owner that I just couldnt believe, this person that is trying to get loan modification told them that she had to pay them 00 a month for 4 months and by the time she was finished paying them they guaranteed her some kind of ridiculous, I just dont understand why it is like that. Right now we need to help you get through the situation, we are here for you, we are going to do everything in our power with our national network of attorneys, who are expert negotiators, so it is important that you call. I just want to make the distinction so it is clear for everybody, Velocity Financial is a full service mortgage firm, all things mortgage related and the concept of todays show being loan modification program is a division of something that you kind of created and had some foresight about all of these …

Keiser Report №63: Markets! Finance! Scandal!

Posted: 02 Sep 2010 07:17 PM PDT

On this edition of the Keiser Report, Max and co-host Stacy Herbert look at the latest scandals of fetishes for black swans; American youth unconcerned by the coming collapse of their Social Security they bought and paid for; Tony Blair’s 2007 photo op with Colonel Gaddafi and the farting camels of Tripoli. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management about the silver market.

Refinancing A Home Loan

Posted: 02 Sep 2010 03:59 PM PDT

A common market tendency is that of refinancing an existent home loan whenever the interest rates fall. Variable or floating interest rates allow for such changes because savings can be really considerable with the monthly payment. Even so, don’t treat the matter of refinancing home lightly, because you can find yourself in trouble. Some people even choose to refinance twice or even three times over just a few years. Are the savings worth it?

Keep in mind that loss is the other side of the coin when it comes to refinancing home loan. You may in fact reduce the monthly payment, but you add up more principal to the loan or you extend its life. The lender allows you to pay less but in fact changes the conditions of the loan, increasing the repayment interval. Refinancing is possible for both variable and fixed home loans but there are considerable differences between the mortgage types. Plus, you need to fully understand the terms of the loan before signing any new agreement.

Lenders make money by providing services, and this means that nobody is going to do you any favor. You will therefore be charged a fee for refinancing home loan. The loan is normally defined by upfront costs, and you should be wary in case no fees are charged. When you get a free refinancing home loan strategy, you can actually be exposed to higher loan fees and interest rates afterwards. True no-costs solutions for refinancing home loans are available with just a limited number of banks. Inquire about the Good Faith Estimate before moving on with the refinancing.

Among the most common types of fees charged when refinancing home loan we can mention loan origination, application, administration, processing, appraisal, title policy, credit report, re-conveyance and even recording and tax service. You can negotiate some of these fees directly with the lender, as it is the case with processing, application or administration.

Fees make refinancing home loans very little advantageous. Make sure that you really make savings in comparison with the older mortgage. The fees could be higher than $4,000, and you have to determine the monthly savings to see how long it takes before you can break even on the refinance. How can you tell that a certain solution is right?