| Gallup Poll Shows Consumer Spending Pullback, Consumer Confidence Levels Below Depressed 2009 Levels ; Back-to-School Sales Bust Says WSJ Posted: 01 Sep 2010 06:59 PM PDT Spending is up a tad from depressed 2009 levels but still way below 2008 levels. Looking ahead year-over-year comparisons will be much more difficult and weak sales will continue to impact state budgets. A recent Gallup Poll shows U.S. Consumers Pulling Back on Spending in AugustAmericans' self-reported spending in stores, restaurants, gas stations, and online averaged $61 per day during the week ending Aug. 29. So far, August and back-to-school 2010 spending trends appear no better than those of August 2009.
Self-Reported Spending Suggests "New Normal" Continues
Gallup's consumer spending measure averaged $68 per day in July and $67 in June -- up $6 on average from prior-year comparables, and at the upper end of the 2009 "new normal" monthly spending range of $59 to $67. The July results seem consistent with Monday's report of a 0.4% increase in personal spending in July 2010.
At this point, consumer spending in August is running below that of June and July, falling back to roughly the $65-per-day average of August 2009. This is consistent with perceptions of a continued weakening of the U.S. economy and tepid back-to-school sales. Economic Consumer Confidence Drops Below Depressed 2009 LevelsIn spite of other survey that show a slight uptick in consumer confidence (with emphasis on slight) a Gallup Poll shows U.S. Economic Confidence Down in Recent WeeksAfter improving slightly earlier this month, Gallup's Economic Confidence Index declined over the past two weeks to its current -33, matching the average for all of July.
"Poor" Ratings of Economy Are Near 2010 High
Forty-eight percent of Americans rated current economic conditions as "poor" during the week ending Aug. 22 -- approaching the highest levels of the year. This is marginally worse than the early August reading, is in line with the full July average of 47%, and is marginally worse than at this time in 2009.
Expectations Deteriorate
During recent weeks, slightly more consumers told Gallup they think economic conditions are "getting worse" than thought that was the case earlier this month. These expectations for the economy basically match the average for all of July and are worse than those consumers held at this time a year ago. What Consumers Say- 48% of consumers say that current economic conditions are "poor"
- 62% of consumers say economic conditions are "getting worse"
What consumers say and what they do may be two different things. However, in this case, actual sales data from Mastercard Advisers seems to confirm this lack of confidence. Back-to-School Sales BustPlease consider Back-to-School Shopping Bust Heralds Holiday WoesIn an ominous sign for the holiday shopping season, American consumers behaved like skinflints in August, focusing on bare necessities and budget-priced deals as they made back-to-school purchases.
Shoppers spent slightly more last month than they had the year before, according to MasterCard Advisors, which crunches data from credit cards, checks and cash payments to form sales estimates. But in nearly every category, the sales numbers were far short of 2008 levels, indicating the economic recovery remains sluggish.
Indeed, an index of consumer confidence released Tuesday by the Conference Board, a private research group, rose just 2.5 points in August, to 53.5.
And a Gallup Poll of consumers' self-reported spending in August showed that consumers estimated they spent $65 a day, less than in June and July and roughly the same as in August 2009. The estimates, released Tuesday, included restaurant and gasoline purchases as well as items like clothing.
Total clothing sales rose 2.6% in August from a year earlier, MasterCard said, but they were buoyed by an 8.4% jump in children's wear. Sales of men's clothing fell 1.9% and women's clothing fell 2.7%, suggesting that parents were forgoing purchases for themselves. Clothes sales were still off 2.3% compared with two years ago.
The story was similar in electronics, where sales rose a modest 2.3% from the year before but were down 9.9% from two years ago.
Luxury retailing saw a 1% sales drop in August and remained 13.8% below the same month in 2008, according to the MasterCard figures, which are set to be released Wednesday.
The back-to-school shopping season is second in importance only to the holidays for American retailers and often serves as a harbinger. If so, retail experts predict increased price competition this Christmas. I see no reason for consumer spending or consumer confidence to rise in a meaningful way, anytime soon. Moreover, those Gallup economic confidence numbers, as they sit now, are indicative of a Democratic blowup in the Autumn elections. Thus, I expect Republicans will win the house and pickup seats in the Senate in the November midterm elections. Finally, those weak sales numbers, even if they stabilize will continue to pressure states in desperate need to get tax revenue back up to 2007 levels. It's not going to happen and states will be forced into additional huge cutbacks in public union wages, employment, pension benefits, or all three. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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| Quick Hits: Walking Away from Boats; Philadelphia Demands $300 Blogger License Fee; Birth Rate Lowest in Century; Tracks of Bizarre Robot Traders Posted: 01 Sep 2010 07:57 AM PDT I am traveling this morning will look at ISM and other data this afternoon. Meanwhile here a a few quick hits on propriety trading, bizarre charts of robo trader patterns, walking away from boats, Blogger fees in Philadelphia, birth rate demographics, and other potpourri. JPMorgan to Shut Proprietary Trading Unit over Volcker RuleBloomberg Reports JPMorgan Said to Shut Proprietary Trading to Meet Volcker Rule JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- largest U.S. lender by assets, told traders who bet on commodities for the firm's account that their unit will be closed as the company begins to shut down all its proprietary trading, according to a person briefed on the matter.
The bank eventually will end all proprietary trading to comply with new curbs on investment banks, said the person, who asked not to be identified because JPMorgan's decision isn't public. The New York-based bank will shut proprietary trading in fixed-income and equities later, the person said.
Closing the prop trading desk for commodities affects fewer than 20 traders, including one in the U.S. and the rest in the U.K., the person said. This is a baby step in the right direction. Developer Sells Zero of 141 Luxury CondosThe Press Enterprise reports Lack of sales spurs developer to leaseAfter two months of marketing his 141 luxury condos with not one sale, Mark Rubin said he has given up wooing buyers to the Raincross Promenade project in downtown Riverside that cost him $40 million to build.
Prospective buyers kept trying to beat down his prices, even after he shaved $30,000 off the initial list prices ranging from $240,000 for a one-bedroom, one-bath condominium to $475,000 for a two bedroom, 2 ½-bath townhouse. "There were no sales," Rubin said. "Everyone wants a bargain. They read about foreclosures and think they can buy for distress prices." Rubin paid cash for the property and is now looking to lease units. Walking Away From BoatsThe USA Today reports Abandoned boats litter waters in tough economyStates across the USA are taking steps to deal with an armada of derelict boats abandoned by their owners in a tough economy:
In Massachusetts,Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick signed a bill this month that gave local governments the power to seize abandoned vessels. The problem was growing faster than the state's ability to deal with it, says Michael Nichols, legal counsel to Democratic state Rep. Antonio Cabral, who introduced the bill.
"The recession was affecting people's ability to keep and maintain a boat," Nichols says. "To have abandoned vessels taking up valuable space in the marinas and harbors was a problem."
Fines for abandoning boats in state waters vary. In Massachusetts, it's $10,000. In South Carolina: $475.
In the San Francisco Bay Area, as many boats were reported abandoned by the Coast Guard in the first quarter of 2009 as in all of 2008, says Deb Self, executive director of San Francisco Baykeeper, an environmental group. The number of eyesores, many of them leaking fuel and chemicals, continued to grow this year, from 64 in February to 76 this month, even after 12 boats were hauled away, Self says.
Twelve states, including Kansas, Missouri and Tennessee, have passed laws on abandoned boats in the past five years, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Most streamline the process of taking title and disposing of boats when owners cannot be found. If you are going to walk away from your boat, do it in South Carolina, not Massachusetts which has a $10,000 fine. Better yet, donate the thing or haul it to the dump. Birth Rate Drops Second Year Physorg reports Recession may have pushed US birth rate to new lowThe U.S. birth rate has dropped for the second year in a row, and experts think the wrenching recession led many people to put off having children. The 2009 birth rate also set a record: lowest in a century.
Births fell 2.7 percent last year even as the population grew, numbers released Friday by the National Center for Health Statistics show. "It's a good-sized decline for one year. Every month is showing a decline from the year before," said Stephanie Ventura, the demographer who oversaw the report.
The birth rate, which takes into account changes in the population, fell to 13.5 births for every 1,000 people last year. That's down from 14.3 in 2007 and way down from 30 in 1909, when it was common for people to have big families.
"It doesn't matter how you look at it - fertility has declined," Ventura said.
The situation is a striking turnabout from 2007, when more babies were born in the United States than any other year in the nation's history. The recession began that fall, dragging stocks, jobs and births down. The US looks more Japanese every month. Philadelphia Imposes $300 Blogger License FeeThe Washington Examiner reports Philly requiring bloggers to pay $300 for a business licenseBetween her blog and infrequent contributions to ehow.com, over the last few years she says she's made about $50. To [Marilyn] Bess, her website is a hobby. To the city of Philadelphia, it's a potential moneymaker, and the city wants its cut.
In May, the city sent Bess a letter demanding that she pay $300, the price of a business privilege license.
"The real kick in the pants is that I don't even have a full-time job, so for the city to tell me to pony up $300 for a business privilege license, pay wage tax, business privilege tax, net profits tax on a handful of money is outrageous," Bess says.
When Bess pressed her case to officials with the city's now-closed tax amnesty program, she says, "I was told to hire an accountant."
To say that these kinds of draconian measures are detrimental to the public discourse would be an understatement. The Broad Street Hockey Blog comments on City of Philadelphia Charging BloggersCity Hall wants your money. A lot of it.
We don't get into politics on this blog often. In fact, I don't believe we ever have. This, however, is an issue that could directly impact this blog and, honestly, any one of you.
When I started blogging two years ago, I wouldn't have been able to afford a $300 fee. Yet at the same time, I needed to keep ads on my pre-SBN site to earn enough to cover the server costs and the domain registration. None of the money went into my pocket. It wasn't a lot of money and the small ads were enough to cover costs, but without them, I wouldn't have been able to run the site.
By enforcing this law on bloggers who make little-to-no-money off of their sites, the City of Philadelphia is robbing its citizens of the opportunity to create. It's robbing them -- and the city itself, really -- at a change to innovate. Philadelphia is amazingly desperate. Any city that would take this action is clearly in deep trouble. 401K withdrawals spikeCNN Money reports 401(k) Withdrawals SpikeHardship withdrawals from 401(k) retirement saving plans rose to the highest level in 10 years during the second quarter, Fidelity Investments said on Friday, in the latest sign of a dismal economy.
Fidelity reported that, as of the second quarter, 2.2% of all 401(k) participants had made a hardship withdrawal at some point over the preceding 12 months. That's up from 2% in the prior year, and was the highest level in 10 years.
At the same time, the percentage of 401(k) participants that had an outstanding loan from their account rose to a record high of 22% in the second quarter. The average loan amount was $8,650 at the end of the quarter. Borrowing against IRAs to meet unsustainable lifestyles or to pay mortgages on underwater homes are both horrendous ideas. Market Data Firm Spots the Tracks of Bizarre Robot TradersThe Atlantic says Market Data Firm Spots the Tracks of Bizarre Robot Traders
Mysterious and possibly nefarious trading algorithms are operating every minute of every day in the nation's stock exchanges.
What they do doesn't show up in Google Finance, let alone in the pages of the Wall Street Journal. No one really knows how they operate or why. But over the past few weeks, Nanex, a data services firm has dragged some of the odder algorithm specimens into the light.
No matter why the bots end up executing these behaviors, the Nanex charts offer a window onto a kind of market behavior that's fascinating and oddly beautiful. And we may never have seen them, if not for the mildly obsessive behavior of one dedicated nerd.
"Who looks at millisecond charts?" Donovan said. "You'd never see those patterns in any other fashion. The SEC and CFTC certainly weren't."
Here are a few more bots at work with explanations of what's going on.
Here we see a "flag repeater" being executed on the BATS Exchange, the third-largest equity market after the NYSE and NASDAQ. 15,000 quote requests were made in 11 seconds in a repeating pattern. Each iteration upped the quote a penny until $9.36, and then the algorithm went down the same way, a penny at a time.
This chart shows a different kind of strategy. It represents 56,000 quotes in one second all at the same price (the top chart) but with the size of the order increasing by one (i.e. 100 shares) all the way up to 40,000.
There are several other interesting patterns in the article, some with explanations of what they mean. Does anyone think this serves an legitimate purpose? If so what purpose? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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| FDIC Quarterly Banking Report: "Reduced Loan-Loss Provisions Boost Earnings"; Commercial Banker Comments on Loan Loss Provisions Posted: 01 Sep 2010 12:52 AM PDT Inquiring minds are investigating the FDIC Second Quarter 2010 Quarterly Banking Profile. Quarterly Earnings Are Highest in Almost Three Years
Reductions in loan-loss provisions underscored improvement in asset quality indicators during second quarter 2010. The industry's quarterly earnings of $21.6 billion are up dramatically from the year-ago loss of $4.4 billion and represent the highest quarterly earnings since third quarter 2007. Almost two out of three institutions (65.5 percent) reported higher year-over-year quarterly net income. The proportion of institutions reporting quarterly net losses remained high at 20 percent but was down from more than 29 percent a year earlier.
Reduced Loan-Loss Provisions Boost Net Income
Insured institutions added $40.3 billion in provisions to their loan-loss allowances in the second quarter. While still high by historic standards, this is the smallest total since the industry set aside $37.2 billion in first quarter 2008 and is $27.1 billion (40.2 percent) less than the industry's provisions in second quarter 2009. Fewer than half of all institutions (41.3 percent) reported year-over-year reductions in quarterly loss provisions. Only 40 percent of community banks (institutions with less than $1 billion in assets) reported year-over-year declines. Reductions were more prevalent among larger institutions. More than half (56.2 percent) of institutions with assets greater than $1 billion had lower provisions in the second quarter.
Charge-Offs Fall for First Time Since 2006
Net charge-offs totaled $49 billion in the second quarter, a $214-million (0.4 percent) decline from a year earlier and the first year-over-year decline since fourth quarter 2006. Charge-offs were lower than a year ago in most major loan categories except for credit cards and real estate loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential properties. Charge-offs on loans to commercial and industrial (C&I) borrowers were $3.1 billion (37.0 percent) lower than a year ago, while charge-offs on real estate construction and development (C&D) loans were $2.7 billion (34.6 percent) lower. Charge-offs of one-to-four family residential mortgage loans were down by $1.4 billion (16.0 percent). Credit card charge-offs were $8.6 billion (86 percent) higher than in second quarter 2009. Most, if not all, of this increase was attributable to the inclusion of charge-offs on securitized credit card balances, which were not included in reported charge-offs in previous years. The change in reporting was the result of the application of FASB 166 and 167. In contrast, the $1.8 billion (107.2 percent) year-over-year increase in charge-offs of nonfarm nonresidential real estate loans reflected further deterioration in commercial real estate portfolios. Almost half (49.1 percent) of insured institutions with more than $1 billion in assets reported lower net charge-offs, while only 43.6 percent of community banks reported year-over-year declines.
Noncurrent Loans Post First Decline in More than Four Years
The amount of loans and leases that were noncurrent (90 days or more past due or in nonaccrual status) declined by $19.6 billion (4.8 percent) during the second quarter. This is the first quarterly decline in noncurrent loans since first quarter 2006. Noncurrent levels declined in most major loan categories during the quarter. The sole exception was nonfarm nonresidential real estate loans, where noncurrents increased by $547 million (1.2 percent), the smallest quarterly increase in three years. The largest reduction in noncurrent loans in the quarter occurred in real estate C&D loans, where noncurrents fell by $5.9 billion (8.3 percent). This is the third consecutive quarter that noncurrent C&D loans have declined. Noncurrent C&I loans also declined for a third straight quarter, falling by $2.7 billion (7.3 percent), while noncurrent residential mortgage loans declined by $4.7 billion (2.5 percent) and noncurrent credit cards fell by $4.2 billion (19 percent). Slightly fewer than half of all institutions (48.9 percent) reported declines in their noncurrent loan balances during the quarter. Noncurrent loan balances fell by 5.3 percent at institutions with more than $1 billion in assets and rose by 0.3 percent at community banks.
Reserves Fall as Large Banks Reduce Loan-Loss Provisions
Total loan-loss reserves of insured institutions fell for the first time since fourth quarter 2006, declining by $11.8 billion (4.5 percent), as net charge-offs of $49 billion exceeded loss provisions of $40.3 billion. Almost two out of three institutions (61.7 percent) increased their loss reserves in the second quarter, but a number of large banks reduced their loss provisions, producing net declines in their reserve balances. In particular, some institutions that converted equity capital into reserves in the first quarter in accordance with the requirements of FASB 166 and 167 reported lower provisioning in the second quarter. Although the industry's ratio of reserves to total loans fell from 3.51 percent to 3.40 percent during the quarter, it is still the second-highest level for this ratio in the 63 years for which data are available. The industry's "coverage ratio" of reserves to noncurrent loans improved for a second consecutive quarter, from 64.9 percent to 65.1 percent, as the reduction in noncurrent loans slightly outpaced the decline in loss reserves. Rising net chargeoffs are a legitimate reason for loan loss reserves to decline, but this report shows other interesting things. For example, 61.7% of banks increased loan loss provisions but total loan loss reserves declined because " a number of large banks reduced their loss provisions". Here are a few bank charts to consider. Click on any chart for sharper image. Wells Fargo (WFC) Daily Chart Bank of America (BAC) Daily Chart Citigroup (C) Daily Chart JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Daily Chart The S&P 500 is down less than 15% from the April highs and in spite of that glowing bank report, especially for the big banks, Wells Fargo is down about 32%, Bank of America is down 37%, Citigroup is down by 26%, and JP Morgan is down by 25%. The above charts do not necessarily imply large banks have insufficient loan loss reserves. Correlation is not causation. There could be any number of reasons for bank stocks to be taking a hit. Nonetheless, additional data does not seem to pass the smell test. Allowances for Loan Losses as Percentage of Nonperforming LoansAfter reading the glowing report above I thought it might be interesting to compare loan loss allowance percentages between banks of various sizes. The charts below depict the ratio of loan loss provisions to nonperforming loans. Click on any chart for a sharper image. Banks with Total Assets up to $300M
 Banks with Total Assets from $300M to $1B Banks with Total Assets from $1B to $10B Banks with Total Assets from $10B to $20B Banks with Total Assets over $20B Allowances for Loan Losses as Percentage of Nonperforming LoansBy Bank Size- Banks with Total Assets up to $300M: 43.14%
- Banks with Total Assets from $300M to $1B: 31.91%
- Banks with Total Assets from $1B to $10B: 26.92%
- Banks with Total Assets from $10B to $20B: 31.15%
- Banks with Total Assets over $20B: 14.11%
The most striking comparison is between the adjacent classes of Banks with Total Assets from $10B to $20B and Banks with Total Assets over $20B. Possible Explanations- Large banks have taken a larger share of writeoffs than smaller banks.
- Large banks customers are in better shape, out of the blue.
- Large banks are playing more games with fantasy level-3 valuations.
- Large banks are reworking more loans to classify more loans as "current".
The sad thing is it is not really possible to know. It could be a combination of various factors, but whatever it is, it does not feel right. California Banker Chimes InI discussed loan loss provisions a couple days ago in Banks Recruit Investors to Oppose Honest Valuation of Assets; Just how Unprepared are Banks for Major Losses?If you have not done so, please check it out for many additional charts and comments. I asked my California Commercial Banker friend to chime in on the post. "California Commercial Banker" writes ... Hello Mish
I've had a chance to talk to my Chief Credit Officer to confirm accounting for nonperforming loans and reserves, which in turn impacts net income and profitability.
When a loan is charged off, nonperforming assets decrease by that amount of the loan while reserves also decrease by the same amount, as the reserves being used pay for the loss at final recognition.
In the case where a bank is continually downgrading a loan and increasing its expectation of losing money on a loan, one of two things happens. If the bank feels its reserves are adequate to support the entire bank plus that potential loss then they do not need to add to reserves. If reserves are inadequate, the banks would then need to add to reserves which decreases income and impacts the bank's profitability.
Many people don't understand the magnitude within the banking industry to "Kick the Can" or "Extend and Pretend". We see a lot of this within the industry.
Banks with existing balance sheet issues (nonperforming loans) really don't want to recognize more loan issues because it could force the FDIC to close them down.
In that light, a bank can take a commercial real estate loan or a business line of credit having issues and do a 3 month extension at loan maturity or change loan payments to interest in an attempt to give the borrower with more time to work things out or bring more capital to the table.
In essence, a bank is hoping for a positive "cure" to the situation by providing time. As long as payments are made on time, a bank might not downgrade that loan as far as it should, which in turn means reserves for the loan are not as big as they should be.
It's not uncommon for a bank to do multiple extensions in the mode of working out a loan with principal reductions over time. I've been in the situation where extensions have lasted 1-2 years. In normal recessions, extensions have worked quite well because borrowers could take equity out of their house or sell stock market assets to cure the loan.
Unfortunately, those dynamics do not exist today. Currently, Extend and Pretend in most cases is the wrong direction and could easily increase the bank's loss in the long run because there are no assets to cure the issue. In the case of housing or commercial real estate loans, the assets are negatively appreciating. This adds to the future problem of nonperforming loans.
I believe there are lots of bad loans not being recognized as accurately or quickly as they should be within the industry at many banks. It's really a case by case basis on how liberal/conservative a bank recognizes loan issues.
I know of one CEO at a community bank who was rumored to be fired for not disclosing problem loans to the directors of that bank.
The other issue that's totally ignored regards borrowers making monthly payments on time even though the collateral is very much underwater.
Knowing the collateral value is below the loan amount would increase the potential for loss and thus force a bank to increase loan loss reserves, thereby lowering earnings. No bank really wants to do that, so most of them don't.
Lastly, I know of certain cases where loan officers at other banks are afraid to tell bank executives when they have real loan issues in the making. Bank officers might take 2-4 months to notify their executives of a potential loan loss. This too delays the recognition of the need to increase reserves for those loans.
In my estimation, if every bank had the collateral of all loans accurately appraised and each loan's loan grading was finely tuned for an expected loss based on financial performance and collateral values, the number of essentially bankrupt banks in this county would increase by a factor of 4-5 from the current level.
In other words, there is a potential pool of 2000-3000 banks that would be on the FDIC radar's for getting closed.
The health of the industry is not accurately reported by any means.
California Commercial Banker So, there's the data, complete with an opinion from someone in commercial banking. There is a lot of guesswork here, but I am sticking with what I said earlier ... Banks in general are sitting on assets, not marked-to-market, both on and off their balance sheets, for which they have made no loan loss provisions. Meanwhile credit risk for new loans is exceptionally high. Is it any wonder banks seem reluctant to lend? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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